KOREA JOURNAL OF POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT Volume 24, Number 2, December 1995 AGING IN JAPAN: POPULATION POLICY IMPLICATIONS HIROSHI KOJIMA Institute of Population Problems, Tokyo 100-45, Japan This paper describes the trends in population aging in Japan and its demographic determinants and consequences. It discusses the sociocultural contexts of aging with special reference to the family. Then, it presents the results of multinomial logit analysis of data from the National Opinion Survey on Population Issues conducted by the Institute of Population Problems in 1990 to explore the possible acceptance of alternative popUlation policies to slow popUlation aging. INTRODUCTION The terms for aging (koreika) and hyper-aging (cho-koreika) have been popular in Japan for a decade or two. After the "1.57 Shock" (the public sensation associated with the announcement of the record-low total fertility rate of 1.57 for 1989) in 1990, the term "shoshika (trend toward less children)" has also become popular and had come to be often used side by side with "koreika" by scholars, policy-makers, politiCians and businessmen. At the same time, the term for population policy has stopped being a semi-taboo word although the terms for "child-rearing support (kosodate shien) policy" or family policy have been preferred. Naturally, they are often considered as policies to cope with "shoshika" but their link to "koreika" is often mentioned, implying that these measures also have population policy motives. On the other hand, there was a large influx of foreign workers in the late 1980s due to the labor shortage during the period of "bubble economy" and the revaluation of yen. Some opinion leaders have suggested that the introduction of foreign workers is inevitable or desirable in the long run to cope with the aging of population and the shortage of young workers associated with the continued low fertility. However, they are usually talking about "the guest worker (temporary migrant) scenario" rather than "permanent migrant scenario" while their opponents suggested that some temporary migrants might end up staying permanently as in the West. Paper prepared for the International Conference, AGING IN EAST AND WEST: Demographic Trends, Sociocultural Contexts and Policy Implications, Population and Development Studies Center, Seoul National UniverSity, September 21 and 22,1995. Parts of this paper draw on Japan (1994) and Kojima (1993). 198 KOREA JOURNAL OF POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT Therefore, the foreign worker issue has been mainly discussed in terms of labor policy rather than population policy although its link to population policy is sometimes pointed out. This paper describes the trends in population aging in Japan and its demographic determinants and consequences. It discusses the sociocultural contexts of aging with special reference to the family. Then, it presents the results of multivariate analysis of public opinion survey data to explore the possible acceptance of alternative population policies to slow population aging. TRENDS IN POPULATION AGING Japan's population, which was 84.1 million in 1950, has reached 125.1 million in 1994, making Japan the seventh most populous country in the world. The annual growth rate was about 3 percent during the immediate postwar period, but decreased to the order of 1 percent in the mid-1950s, and remained at this level through the mid-1970s. Then, it fell below 1 percent and has continued to decline further to the level around 0.3 percent. The slower growth of population is mainly due to the decline in fertility and mortality. Both declined rapidly in the immediate postwar period. Then, the fertility stayed around the replacement level and declined further beginning in the mid-1970s. The mortality continued to fall further, particularly in the old age group. This led to a sharp decline in the percentage of the child population (aged 0-14) while that of the aged population (aged 65 and over) continued to rise, as Table 1 shows. The share of the working-age population (aged 15-64) rose from 59.6 percent in 1950 to 68.9 percent in 1970, and has virtually leveled off at around 70 percent thereafter. The share of the child population, which was 35.4 percent in 1950, has dropped to 18.2 percent by 1990. On the other hand, the proportion of the aged population rose rapidly, from 4.9 percent in 1950 to 10.3 percent in 1985. The speed of aging has been accelerated since then and the share of the aged population in 1994 has been 14.1 percent. As a consequence, the median age of population increased by 15.5 years from 22.2 in 1950 to 37.7 in 1990 (Table 2). As Table 1 shows, the aged population is projected to increase further by the new series of official population projections for Japan, which was published by the Institute of Population Problems (IPP), Ministry of Health and Welfare in September 1992. According to the medium-variant, the total population will increase continuously from 123.6 million in 1990 to 130.4 million in 2011 and decrease continuously thereafter to 125.8 million in 2025 AGING IN JAPAN: POPULATION POLICY IMPLICATIONS 199 TABLE 1. TRENDS IN THE AGE COMPOSmON OF POPULATION: 1920-2090 (%) Total Year 0-14 15-64 65+ 65-74 75+ (x 1000) Enumerated 1920 55,963 36.5 58.3 5.3 3.9 1.3 1930 64,450 36.6 58.7 4.8 3.4 1.4 1940 73,075 36.1 59.2 4.7 3.5 1.2 1950 84,115 35.4 59.6 4.9 3.7 1.3 1960 94,302 30.2 64.1 5.7 4.0 1.7 1965 99,209 25.7 68.0 6.3 4.4 1.9 1970 104,665 24.0 68.9 7.1 4.9 2.1 1975 111,940 24.3 67.7 7.9 5.4 2.5 1980 117,060 23.5 67.3 9.1 6.0 3.1 1985 121,049 21.5 68.2 10.3 6.4 3.9 1990 123,611 18.2 69.5 12.1 7.2 4.8 Projected 1995 125,463 16.0 69.4 14.5 8.8 5.7 2000 127,385 15.2 67.8 17.0 10.2 6.9 2005 129,346 15.6 65.2 19.1 10.7 8.4 2010 130,397 16.4 62.4 21.3 11.3 10.0 2015 130,033 16.3 59.5 24.1 13.0 11.2 2020 128,345 15.5 59.0 25.5 13.0 12.5 2025 125,806 14.6 59.7 25.8 11.3 14.5 2030 122,972 14.2 59.8 26.0 11.0 15.0 2040 117,290 15.3 56.7 28.0 13.7 14.3 2050 111,510 15.7 56.1 28.2 12.1 16.1 2060 105,516 15.5 58.6 25.8 10.0 15.8 2070 101,023 16.6 58.2 25.2 11.8 13.4 2080 98,249 17.2 57.1 25.6 11.9 13.8 2090 95,732 17.2 58.4 24.5 10.2 14.2 Note: The figures are as of October 1 each year and includes Okinawa. Source: InstItute of Population Problems (1992, 1995), Association of the Employment Development for the Elderly (1995). and 95.7 million in 2090. While both the child population and the working- age population will gradually decrease, the aged pop<.!lation will continue to increase from 14.9 million in 1990 to 32.7 million in 2020. The median age of population will increase from 37.7 years in 1990 to 48.8 years in the mid- 2030s and then have cyclical movements with the two peaks of 49.9 years around 2060 and 49.8 years in the late 2080s due to the echo effects of baby booms and busts (Table 2). The population of Japan is expected to experience rapid aging not previously observed in the West. The proportion of the elderly among the 200 KOREA JOURNAL OF POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT TABLE 2. TRENDS IN MEAN AGE AND AGE AND ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIOS: 1920- 2090 Year Median Dependency Ratio Aged Non-Active Age Total Child Aged Child Active Enumerated 1920 22.2 71.6 62.6 9.0 14.4 105.3 1930 21.8 70.5 62.4 8.1 13.0 117.6 1940 21.9 70.9 62.7 8.2 13.1 125.0 1950 22.2 67.7 59.4 8.3 13.9 133.5 1960 25.6 55.9 47.0 8.9 19.0 114.1 1965 27.4 47.1 37.9 9.2 24.4 106.9 1970 29.0 45.1 34.9 10.3 29.4 99.0 1975 30.6 47.6 35.9 11.7 32.6 110.6 1980 32.5 48.4 34.9 13.5 38.7 109.7 1985 35.2 46.7 31.6 15.1 47.9 107.9 1990 37.7 43.5 26.2 17.3 66.2 100.2 Projected 1995 39.6 44.0 23.1 20.9 90.7 2000 41.0 47.5 22.4 25.1 112.2 92.8 2005 41.9 53.3 24.0 29.3 122.2 2010 42.9 60.4 26.3 34.1 130.0 103.3 2015 44.4 68.0 27.4 40.5 147.7 2020 46.0 69.4 26.2 43.2 165.1 2025 47.2 67.5 24.3 43.2 177.8 2030 47.6 67.2 23.7 43.5 183.6 2040 46.1 76.4 27.1 49.4 182.4 2050 45.8 78.3 28.1 50.2 179.0 2060 45.9 70.5 26.5 44.1 166.4 2070 44.3 71.9 28.6 43.3 151.7 2080 43.7 75.1 30.2 44.9 148.8 2090 43.5 71.3 29.4 41.9 142.6 Note: The figures are as of October 1 each year and includes Okinawa.