Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Analyses of Potential Factors Affecting Survival of Juvenile Salmonids Volitionally Passing Through Turbines at McNary and John Day Dams, Columbia River Open-File Report 2011–1227 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Analyses of Potential Factors Affecting Survival of Juvenile Salmonids Volitionally Passing Through Turbines at McNary and John Day Dams, Columbia River By John Beeman, Hal Hansel, and Russell Perry, U.S. Geological Survey; and Eric Hockersmith and Ben Sandford, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Open-File Report 2011-1227 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Suggested citation: Beeman, J.W., Hansel, H., Perry, R.W., Hockersmith, E., and Sanford, B., 2011, Analyses of potential factors affecting survival of juvenile salmonids volitionally passing through turbines at McNary and John Day Dams, Columbia River: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011-1227, 124 p. Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. 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Contents Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Methods ............................................................................................................................................ 4 Results of Analyses from Studies at John Day Dam ....................................................................... 13 Yearling Chinook Salmon ............................................................................................................13 Environmental Conditions ........................................................................................................ 13 Survival .................................................................................................................................... 15 Key Findings in Data from Yearling Chinook Salmon at John Day Dam .................................. 21 Subyearling Chinook Salmon ......................................................................................................21 Environmental Conditions ........................................................................................................ 21 Survival .................................................................................................................................... 22 Key Findings in Data from Subyearling Chinook Salmon at John Day Dam ............................ 26 Results of Analyses from Studies at McNary Dam .......................................................................... 30 Yearling Chinook Salmon ............................................................................................................30 Environmental Conditions ........................................................................................................ 30 Survival .................................................................................................................................... 30 Key Findings in Data from Yearling Chinook Salmon at McNary Dam ..................................... 37 Juvenile Steelhead ......................................................................................................................43 Environmental Conditions ........................................................................................................ 43 Survival .................................................................................................................................... 45 Key Findings in Data from Juvenile Steelhead at McNary Dam ............................................... 49 Subyearling Chinook Salmon ......................................................................................................52 Environmental Conditions ........................................................................................................ 52 Survival .................................................................................................................................... 54 Key Findings in Data from Subyearling Chinook Salmon at McNary Dam ............................... 58 Discussion ....................................................................................................................................... 63 Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... 69 References Cited ............................................................................................................................ 69 Appendix A. Summaries of Covariate Values from Data used in Studies of Yearling Chinook Salmon at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003. .................................................................................. 74 Appendix B. Capture History Summary of Yearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003. ................................................................................................... 76 Appendix C. Model Summary from Analyses of Recapture Probabilities (p) of Yearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003. ......................................... 77 Appendix D. Summaries of Covariate Values of Subyearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003.................................................................................... 78 Appendix E. Capture History Summary of Subyearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003. ............................................................................................... 80 Appendix F. Model Summary from Analyses of Recapture Probabilities (p) of Subyearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at John Day Dam in 2002 and 2003. ......................................... 81 Appendix G. Summaries of Covariate Values from Yearling Chinook Salmon from data used in studies at McNary Dam from 2002–2009. ....................................................................................... 82 Appendix H. Capture History Summary of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ........................................................................................... 88 iii Appendix I. Correlation Analyses of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ........................................................................................... 89 Appendix J. Model Summary from Analyses of Recapture Probabilities (p) of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ............................... 91 Appendix K. Model-selection Results from Radio- and Acoustic-tagged Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ............................................ 92 Appendix L. Beta (Slope) Coefficients of Estimable Survival Parameters of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ............................... 93 Appendix M. Capture History Summary of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ........................................................................................... 94 Appendix M. Capture History Summary of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ........................................................................................... 94 Appendix N. Model Summary from Analyses of Recapture Probabilities (p) of Yearling Chinook Salmon from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2002–2005, and 2009. ............................... 95 Appendix O. Summaries of Covariate Values of Juvenile Steelhead from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2004–2009............................................................................................................. 96 Appendix P. Capture History Summary of Juvenile Steelhead from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2004–2005 and 2009. ....................................................................................................... 102 Appendix Q. Results of Correlation Analyses of Juvenile Steelhead from Data Used in Studies at McNary Dam in 2004–2005 and 2009. .......................................................................................... 103 Appendix R. Model Summary from Analyses of Recapture Probabilities