University of Kentucky UKnowledge Theses and Dissertations--Political Science Political Science 2014 NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD Jackie R. East University of Kentucky, [email protected] Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation East, Jackie R., "NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD" (2014). Theses and Dissertations--Political Science. 11. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/polysci_etds/11 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations--Political Science by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STUDENT AGREEMENT: I represent that my thesis or dissertation and abstract are my original work. Proper attribution has been given to all outside sources. I understand that I am solely responsible for obtaining any needed copyright permissions. I have obtained needed written permission statement(s) from the owner(s) of each third-party copyrighted matter to be included in my work, allowing electronic distribution (if such use is not permitted by the fair use doctrine) which will be submitted to UKnowledge as Additional File. I hereby grant to The University of Kentucky and its agents the irrevocable, non-exclusive, and royalty-free license to archive and make accessible my work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I agree that the document mentioned above may be made available immediately for worldwide access unless an embargo applies. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of my work. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of my work. I understand that I am free to register the copyright to my work. REVIEW, APPROVAL AND ACCEPTANCE The document mentioned above has been reviewed and accepted by the student’s advisor, on behalf of the advisory committee, and by the Director of Graduate Studies (DGS), on behalf of the program; we verify that this is the final, approved version of the student’s thesis including all changes required by the advisory committee. The undersigned agree to abide by the statements above. Jackie R. East, Student Dr. Stephen Voss, Major Professor Dr. Clayton Thyne, Director of Graduate Studies NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD DISSERTATION A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Kentucky By Jackie R. East Director: Dr. Stephen Voss, Professor of Political Science Lexington, Kentucky 2014 Copyright ©Jackie R. East ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD Researchers use natural phenomena in a number of disciplines to help explain human behavioral outcomes. Research regarding the potential effects of magnetic fields on animal and human behavior indicates that fields could influence outcomes of interest to social scientists. Tests so far have been limited in scope. This work is a preliminary evaluation of whether the earth’s magnetic field influences human behavior it examines the baseline relationship exhibited between geomagnetic readings and a host of social and political outcomes. The emphasis on breadth of topical coverage in these statistical trials, rather than on depth of development for any one model, means that evidence is only suggestive – but geomagnetic readings frequently covary with social and political variables in a fashion that seems inexplicable in the absence of a causal relationship. The pattern often holds up in more-elaborate statistical models. Analysis provides compelling evidence that geomagnetic variables furnish valuable information to models. Many researchers are already aware of potential causal mechanisms that link human behavior to geomagnetic levels and this evidence provides a compelling case for continuing to develop the line of research with in-depth, focused analysis. Keywords: geomagnetic field, behavior, conflict, crime, volatility. Jackie R. East September 1, 2014 NATURAL PHENOMENA AS POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL AND POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD By Jackie R. East Dr. Stephen Voss Director of Dissertation Dr. Clayton Thyne Director of Graduate Studies September 2014 Dedication This is dedicated to my wife Renee and son Evin, who suffered more from the writing of this dissertation than I. Acknowledgement Stephen Voss demonstrated dedication to his teaching and research profession and stuck with me on the journey from first year grad student to Ph.D. through twelve years, three committees, and three comprehensive exams. Horace Bartilow’s enthusiasm for the subject matter of the dissertation and heartfelt encouragement aided my progression through many difficult moments in the completion of this work. My committee worked tirelessly to ensure I produced a quality work that contributes value to academic discourse. I acknowledge their efforts, and the patience of the Graduate School as the Army prevented me from meeting dozens suspense and timelines for completion of the Ph.D. program. The Graduate School and the Department of Political Science have exceeded that expected in support of our nation’s military. Therefore, I must admit that any error or omission in this work is my responsibility alone. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………...iii List of Tables………………………………………………………………………...…..vii List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………….xi List of Equations………………………………………………………………………...xiv CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL ANECDOTES .............................................................................. 1 1.2 DOMESTIC GROUP-LEVEL ANECDOTES .................................................................... 3 1.3STATE-LEVEL ANECDOTES ....................................................................................... 4 1.4 SYSTEM- AND MARKET-LEVEL ANECDOTES ............................................................ 6 1.5CONTRIBUTIONS OF THIS RESEARCH ........................................................................ 8 1.5.1AN INNOVATIVE EXPLANATORY VARIABLE ....................................................... 8 1.5.2 MODELING VOLATILITY .................................................................................... 9 1.6 STRUCTURE OF THE DISSERTATION ........................................................................ 11 CHAPTER 2 GEOMAGNETIC FIELDS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE ............................................ 14 2.1 INFLUENCE OF NATURAL PHENOMENA IN SOCIOLOGY AND PSYCHOLOGY ............ 16 2.2 GEOMAGNETIC MECHANISMS OF INFLUENCE ......................................................... 18 2.2.1 NEURAL SIGNAL TRANSMISSION USING CHEMICALS ...................................... 19 2.2.2 NEURAL SIGNAL TRANSMISSION USING ELECTRICITY ..................................... 20 2.2.3 THE PULVINAR ................................................................................................ 21 2.3 RESEARCH AND EXPERIMENTS: EFFECT ON PERCEPTIONS ..................................... 22 2.3.1 EFFECTS ON MEMORY ..................................................................................... 24 2.3.2 EFFECT ON PSYCHOLOGICAL HEALTH AND WELL BEING ................................ 25 2.4 GOVERNMENT RESEARCH ON MAGNETIC INFLUENCE ............................................ 26 2.5 MAGNETIC EFFECT POLITICS, ECONOMICS, AND DECISION MAKING ..................... 27 2.6 EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD AS EXPLANATORY VARIABLE ..................................... 28 2.6.1 COST ............................................................................................................... 28 2.6.2 SHIFTING THEORY AWAY FROM PROBLEMATIC ASSUMPTIONS ....................... 29 2.6.3 DIRECT INFLUENCE ON POLICY MAKING AND INDIVIDUAL CHOICE ................ 30 2.7 THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ..................................................................................... 31 2.7.1 MEASURES OF THE FIELD ................................................................................ 31 2.7.2 FIELD COMPONENTS........................................................................................ 32 2.7.3 USE OF EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD VARIABLES IN MODELS .............................. 33 CHAPTER 3 IMPACT OF THE EARTH’S MAGNETIC FIELD .................................................... 35 3.1 DIRECT EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC FIELDS ........................................................... 35 3.2 DIRECT EFFECTS AND OMITTED VARIABLE............................................................ 39 3.3 INDIRECT EFFECTS OF GEOMAGNETIC FIELDS ........................................................ 43 iv 3.4 SURVEY OF RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FIELDS AND OUTCOMES ................................. 44 3.4.1 DISCUSSION OF PRESENTATION TABLES .......................................................... 45 3.4.2 THE MAGNETIC VARIABLES AP AND C9 .......................................................... 46 3.4.3 LOCAL MAGNETIC VARIABLE: THE TOTAL FIELD; F ...................................... 48