Public Disclosure Authorized CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR Public Disclosure Authorized Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World Judy L. Baker, editor Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World Judy L. Baker, Editor © 2012 Th e International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th e World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 15 14 13 12 Th is volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th e World Bank. Th e fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily refl ect the views of the Executive Directors of Th e World Bank or the governments they represent. Th e World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Th e boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of Th e World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions Th e material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. Th e International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th e World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www. copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, Th e World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-8213-8845-7 eISBN: 978-0-8213-8960-7 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8845-7 Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc. Cover photo: iStockphoto.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested Contents Foreword xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii Overview 1 Recommended Actions to Build Resilience of the Urban Poor 2 Chapter 1. Vulnerable Cities: Assessing Climate Change and Disaster Risk in Urban Centers of the Developing World 7 Introduction and Objective of the Study 7 Background, Analytical Framework, and Approach 9 Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Urban Areas: Assessing Hazard Risk 12 Efforts to Estimate Exposure in Cities 22 Notes 23 References 23 Chapter 2. Vulnerability of the Urban Poor 27 Exposure: Location and Settlement Patterns of the Urban Poor 28 Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Delivery of Basic Services for the Urban Poor 38 Other Key Issues Affecting the Vulnerability of the Urban Poor 51 ■ v vi ■ CONTENTS Notes 58 References 59 Chapter 3. Building Resilience for the Urban Poor 63 Assessing Risk at the City and Community Levels to Inform Decision Making and Action Planning 64 Integrating Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policies for the Poor into Urban Planning and Management 70 Balancing Policy Tradeoffs among Risk Reduction, Urban Development, and Poverty Reduction in Decision Making 76 Strengthening Institutional Capacity to Deliver Basic Services and Reduce Vulnerability to Climate and Disaster Risk 86 Bridging Communities and Local Governments to Work Together on Local Solutions 89 Notes 94 References 94 Chapter 4. Opening New Finance Opportunities for Cities to Address Pro-poor Adaptation and Risk Reduction 99 Costing Adaptation and Risk Reduction 100 Sources of Financing for Adaptation and Risk Reduction 103 Bringing It All Together 121 Notes 122 References 122 Annex 1: Literature Review 125 Linking Climate Change and DRR 128 Climate Change, DRR, and Urban Poverty 128 Service Delivery and the Urban Poor 129 Housing 131 Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation 132 Finance 134 Gaps in Existing Literature 134 References 135 CONTENTS ■ vii Annex 2: Efforts to Estimate Exposure in Cities 141 OECD Study on Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes 141 Munich Re’s Study on Megacities—Megacities Megarisks 143 GFDRR—Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction 144 Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities: A Climate Vulnerability Ranking of Major Coastal Cities in Asia 144 Earthquake Disaster Risk Index 145 Multi-Hazard City Risk Index (MHCRI) 145 Note 146 References 146 Annex 3: Learning from Project and Program Experiences: Individuals, Community, and Local Government Partnering to Manage Risk 149 Introduction 149 Educate—Good Practices in Knowledge Sharing and Training 151 Identify—Good Practices in Risk Identifi cation 155 Prepare—Good Practices in Risk Reduction through Early-Warning Systems 158 Mitigate—Good Practices in Risk Reduction through Mitigation 160 Flood Management and Urban Planning 160 Water Supply and Sanitation 163 Wastewater Management and Energy 164 Water Supply and Energy Effi ciency 165 Neighborhood Upgrading 166 Job Creation 167 Transfer—Recent Practices in Risk Defl ection 168 Recover—Good Practices in Building-Back-Better 170 Lessons Learned and Recommendations 173 Notes 177 References 177 Annex 4: Dar es Salaam Case Study 181 Overview and Key Findings 181 Case Study Summary 186 Reference 197 viii ■ CONTENTS Annex 5: Jakarta Case Study 199 Overview and Key Findings 199 Case Study Summary 204 Notes 215 Reference 215 Annex 6: Mexico City Case Study 217 Overview and Key Findings 217 Case Study Summary 220 Notes 233 Reference 233 Annex 7: São Paulo Case Study 235 Overview and Key Findings 235 Case Study Summary 239 Notes 267 Reference 267 Color Section 269 Index 277 Boxes 1.1 Increase in the Number of Heat Waves in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) 21 2.1 Locating Vulnerable Households in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) 31 2.2 Jardim Ana Maria: A Slum Pocket in São Paulo 33 2.3 São Paulo’s Geotechnical Hazard Areas and Declivity Hazard Areas 35 2.4 Pattern between Flood-Prone Areas and Where the Poor Live in Jakarta 36 2.5 Exposure in Slums of South Asia and Latin America 37 2.6 Water Supply in Dar es Salaam 43 2.7 Water Scarcity in Mexico City 45 2.8 Incidents of Dengue in Jakarta 50 2.9 Settlements and Environmentally Sensitive Lands 52 3.1 Urban Risk Assessment 66 3.2 Lessons Learned from Carrying out City-level Risk Assessments under the Mayor’s Task Force 67 CONTENTS ■ ix 3.3 Developing Action Plans in Vietnam, New York City, and Mexico City 68 3.4 Decision Making for Adaptation Planning in Chicago 84 3.5 Robust Decision Making for Road Design in a Flood-Prone Area 85 3.6 Locally Organized Early-Warning System in Kampung Melayu in Jakarta 93 4.1 Bangkok’s GHG Emissions and the Clean Technology Fund 106 4.2 Combining Resources to Maximize Synergies: Supporting Mexico’s Urban Low-Carbon Transformation 107 4.3 MultiCat Mexico 109 4.4 Landfi ll Gas-to-Energy Projects in São Paulo 116 4.5 Tokyo’s Emissions Trading System 117 4.6 Getting Private Water Utilities into Slums: Metro Manila Water Concessions 118 Figures 2.1 Percentage of Urban Population Using Improved Sanitation (2008) 44 4.1 Adaptation Cost Curve: Florida Test Case 101 4.2 Benefi t-Cost Ratio by Risk Category for Tunis and Casablanca 102 A3.1 Examples of Current Good Practices, by Approach to Risk Management 152 A4.2 Trend of Mean Maximum Temperature Anomalies during Warm est Months (December–February) at Dar es Salaam International Airport 193 A4.3 Timeseries of Mean Annual Rainfall in Dar es Salaam 193 A4.4 Mean and Absolute 24 Hours Maximum Rainfall for Dar es Salaam 195 A4.5 Exposed Population in Dar es Salaam in 2005, 2030, 2050, and 2070 to a 1-in-100-Year Flood under the A1B Mid-range Sea-Level Rise Scenario, No Adaptation 196 A6.1 Administrative Map of Mexico City Metropolitan Area 220 A6.2 Urban Expansion of Mexico City Metropolitan Areas, 1950–2005 221 A6.3 90th Percentile of Maximum Temperature, in Celsius, in 1979–2003 (left) and 2015–2039 (right) 229 A6.4 95th Percentile of Precipitation (mm/day) in 1979–2003 (left) and 2015–39 (right) 230 A7.1 Administrative Map of São Paulo 239 x ■ CONTENTS A7.2 Growth Rates for City of São Paulo, 1950–2010 240 A7.3 São Paulo City Social Vulnerability Index, IPVS 241 A7.5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electric Energy Use by Sector in São Paulo 243 A7.6 Transport Use in São Paulo 243 A7.7 Days with Intense Rainfall per Decade 248 A7.8 Number of Flooding Points Registered by CGE in São Paulo per Year, 2004–2011 248 A7.10 Main Flooding Points of Streets 255 A7.11 Spatial Distribution of Precarious Settlements in City 258 Color Section A1.1 Population and Megacities in Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Threatened by Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surges 269 A2.1 Exposure in Large Cities to Cyclones and Earthquakes Rises from 680 Million in 2000 to 1.5 Billion 270 A4.1 Administrative Map of Dar es Salaam 271 A5.3 Impact of Sea-level Rise on North Jakarta with Business as Usual 271 A4.6 Map of Flood Hazard Zone Overlaid on Urban Poor Settlements, Dar es Salaam 272 A5.1 Administrative Map of Jakarta 273 A5.4 Population Exposure to Hazards, Jakarta 274 A5.5 Slum Areas, Flooding and Unregistered Land, Jakarta 274 A6.5 Vulnerable Areas in Terms of Population and Housing, Mexico City 275 A7.4 São Paulo´s Topography