A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Webster, Neil; Sørensen, Ninna Nyberg; Dessalegn Rahmato; Zerihun Mohammed Working Paper Governance, climate change and mobility in Ethiopia DIIS Working Paper, No. 2020:05 Provided in Cooperation with: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), Copenhagen Suggested Citation: Webster, Neil; Sørensen, Ninna Nyberg; Dessalegn Rahmato; Zerihun Mohammed (2020) : Governance, climate change and mobility in Ethiopia, DIIS Working Paper, No. 2020:05, ISBN 978-87-7236-017-1, Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), Copenhagen This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227728 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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This Working Paper on Ethiopia is one of two initial working papers prepared under the auspices of the Governing Climate Mobility (GCM) programme and the partnership of the Danish Institute for International Studies, the Forum for Social Studies (FSS) in Addis Ababa, and the Centre for Migration Studies at the University of Ghana. The Working Paper has been authored by Neil Webster and Ninna Nyberg Sørensen (DIIS) with assistance from Dr Dessalegn Rahmato and Dr Zerihun Mohammed (FSS). Comments on an earlier draft were provided by colleagues at DIIS and by Dr Asnake Kefale and Dr Fekadu Adugan at the University of Addis Ababa. Therese Marie Bostrup provided editorial assistance. All errors remain the responsibility of the two main authors. Further information on GCM is available on the programme’s website https://www.diis.dk/node/14960 Neil Webster Senior researcher, [email protected] Ninna Nyberg Sørensen Senior researcher, [email protected] Dessalegn Rahmato Senior research fellow, [email protected] Zerihun Mohammed Senior research fellow, [email protected] DIIS WORKING PAPER 2020: 05 DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Tel: +45 32 69 87 87 E-mail: [email protected] www.diis.dk ISBN 97887-7236-017-1 (pdf) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk © Copenhagen 2020, the authors and DIIS GOVERNANCE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND MOBILITY IN ETHIOPIA Neil Webster Ninna Nyberg Sørensen Dessalegn Rahmato Zerihun Mohammed TABLE OF CONTENTS List of abbreviations 2 Preface 3 Introduction 3 A developmental state? 4 The origins of contemporary governance in Ethiopia 8 The role of land rights in shaping local governance 10 The institutional structure of formal government, post-derg 11 A brief summary of key governance issues in contemporary Ethiopia 14 Climate change in Ethiopia 15 Government responses to climate change 18 Rural households’ responses to climate change 20 Patterns of mobility in Ethiopia and (im)mobility as adaptation 20 Development: social transformation or governmentality in motion? 21 Empire, regime change and continuity in mobility control 22 Drivers of mobility in Ethiopia 28 Back to governing climate mobility 31 A postscript: the COVID-19 epidemic in Ethiopia 32 References 34 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2020: 05 1 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADP Amhara Democratic Party CIA Central Intelligence Agency (US) CMS Centre for Migration Studies CSA Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia ESID Effective States and Inclusive Development EPID Extension and Project Implementation Department EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front FSS Forum for Social Studies GCM Governing Climate Mobility GTP Growth and Transformation Plan ICG International Crisis Group MoLSA Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs ODP Oroma Democratic Party PA Peasant Association PSNP Productive Safety Net Project SNNPR Southern Nations Nationalities and People Region TPLF Tigray People’s Liberation Front DIIS WORKING PAPER 2020: 05 2 PREFACE DIIS Working Paper 2020: 05 has been prepared as part of the first work package of the research programme ‘Governing Climate Mobility’ (GCM). The programme examines how governance contexts influence mobility options and practices in areas affected by climate change. Development literature and interventions have long emphasised local governance, particularly policies for the decentralisation of government, but the interest in local governance has waned in recent years, while the global governance of climate change has grown in focus. We argue that attention should be paid to the role of local governance, not least in attempting to understand the interplay of structural forces behind households’ and individuals’ climate-related mobility and the social conditions under which people move or experience (im)mobility. Research for the GCM programme is being undertaken in two countries, Ghana and Ethiopia, both of which are experiencing significant climate change which is directly impacting upon large sections of the population in both rural and urban areas. The research is undertaken by the Centre for Migration Studies (CMS) at the University of Ghana and the Forum for Social Studies (FSS) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in partnership with the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS). The Working Paper presents the existing states of governance, climate change and the diverse forms of mobility that are practised in Ethiopia. It draws on the GCM conceptual framing paper1 for its conceptual and analytical discussions and on various secondary data sources2 for evidence to substantiate these discussions. INTRODUCTION Ethiopia’s geostrategic position in the Horn of Africa and its political status within Africa, including accommodating the headquarters of the African Union, ensures that its political stability and economic development are in the international spotlight. Its population, approaching 110 million, urgently needs the benefits of economic development, as the country is currently ranked 173 out of 189 on the global Human Development Index (2017) and has a per capita income of $790 (2018). The international community needs Ethiopia to remain a factor of stability in a highly unstable region. Both sets of needs have direct significance for the form and practice of governance. 1 Shortly to be made available on the GCM website. 2 These include studies based on original data. DIIS WORKING PAPER 2020: 05 3 Table 1. Basic socio-economic and demographic data Population 109 million (2018) Per capita income $790 Growth rate, average for 2007/8 to 2017/18 9.9% GDP in 2017/18 7.7% Population below poverty line 2011: 30%; 2016: 24% Source: World Bank. Ethiopia’s population is predominantly young: according to the 2007 census,3 some 35 percent of the population is in the 15-34 age group, while those over 45 make up less than 17 percent of the total. Youth unemployment is very high, and the lack of job opportunities has encouraged many to seek to migrate to the Gulf, South Africa and Europe using both formal and informal channels. Internal mobility4 has been practised in multiple ways throughout the country’s history, often related to forms and shifts in land rights, employment needs, processes of urbanisation and industrialisation, and not least famines, droughts, soil erosion and conflict. Climate change has long been a contributing factor, the difference today being that it has not only become a focus for researchers, politicians and the media, it has also gained currency as an important explanatory factor for migration. Recognising this, the paper uses the concept of climate-related mobility to cover individual, household and occasionally government decisions to move. Whether temporarily or on a permanent basis, the fact that climate change is a contributory factor underlies the use of the term. A developmental state? Once the focus is on the significance of governance contexts to the study of climate-related mobility, it becomes necessary to examine the nature of the Ethiopian state. On the significance of context and capacity for the role of the state, the work led by Sam Hickey and others linked to Manchester University and the Effective States and Inclusive Development (ESID) research5 is important, but to understand