Enhancing Disaster Resilience through Human Capital: Prospects for Adaptation to Cyclones in Coastal Bangladesh I n a u g u r a l - D i s s e r t a t i o n zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität zu Köln vorgelegt von Abdullah Al-Maruf Jamalpur, Bangladesh Berichterstatter/in: Prof. Dr. Boris Braun Prof. Dr. Gregor C. Falk Tag der letzten mündlichen Prüfung: 8. Mai 2017 ii CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………………………. VII LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………………... VIII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………………… IX ABSTRACT ……………………………………………………………………………………... XI ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ………………………………………………………………………... XIII ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS …………………………………………………………………….. XV CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………….. 1 1.1 Background …………………………………………………………………………………… 1 1.2 Problem statement ……………………………………………………………………………. 2 1.3 Research objective and questions …………………………………………………………….. 3 1.4 Study relevance ……………………………………………………………………………….. 3 1.5 How does human capital relate to disaster resilience? ……………………………………...... 5 1.6 Organization of the study……………………………………………………………………... 6 CHAPTER TWO: THEORY AND RESEARCH FRAMEWORK ………………………….. 9 2.1 Resilience: Theoretical reflections …………………………………………………………… 9 2.1.1 Sustainable livelihood framework………………………………………………………... 10 2.1.2 Community disaster resilience framework ………………………………………………. 12 2.1.3 The disaster resilience of place model …………………………………………………… 13 2.1.4 FAO resilience tool ………………………………………………………………………. 15 2.2 Human capital: Theoretical reflections ………………………………………………………. 18 2.3 Research framework …………………………………………………………………………. 23 CHAPTER THREE: CONCEPTUALIZATION AND RESEARCH DESIGN……………... 25 3.1 Conceptualization of disaster resilience … 25 3.1.1 The term “resilience” …………………………………………………………………….. 25 3.1.2 Disaster resilience ………………………………………………………………………... 26 3.1.3 Households’ disaster resilience ………………………………………………………….. 30 3.1.4 Components of household disaster resilience ……………………………………………. 31 3.1.4.1 Household infrastructure component (HIC) ………………………………………. 31 3.1.4.2 Household economic component (HEC) ………………………………………….. 31 3.1.4.3 Household self-organization and learning component (HSoLC) …………………. 32 3.1.4.4 Social safety net (SSN) ……………………………………………………………. 32 3.2 Conceptualization of human capital ………………………………………………………….. 33 3.2.1 Pillar 1: Knowledge obtained through formal education, such as college or university … 33 iii 3.2.2 Pillar 2: Knowledge obtained through vocational education and training ………………. 34 3.2.3 Pillar 3: Knowledge obtained through “learning by doing” ……………………………... 35 3.2.4 Pillar 4: Knowledge obtained through interactions and participation …………………… 35 3.2.5 Pillar 5: Knowledge obtained through prior experiences and indigenous activities …….. 36 3.2.6 Pillar 6: Health …………………………………………………………………………… 36 3.3 Understanding other forms of capital ……………………… ………………………………... 37 3.3.1 Social capital …………………………………………………………………………….. 37 3.3.2 Natural capital ……………………………………………………………………………. 38 3.3.3 Physical capital …………………………………………………………………………... 39 3.3.4 Financial capital ………………………………………………………………………….. 39 3.4 Reframing the research questions …………………………………………………………… 40 3.5 Research design ……………………………………………………………………………..... 40 CHAPTER FOUR: METHODOLOGY ………………………………...................................... 42 4.1 Methodological approach …………………………………………………………………….. 42 4.2 Selection and description of the study area …………………………………………………... 43 4.3 Cyclones Sidr and Aila ………………………………………………………………………. 45 4.4 Sampling and recruitment of participants ……………………………………………………. 45 4.5 Data sources and collection methods ………………………………………………………… 46 4.5.1 Description of the household survey …………………………………………………….. 46 4.5.2 Informal discussions ……………………………………………………………………... 49 4.5.3 Key informant interviews ………………………………………………………………... 49 4.6 Data processing and methods of analysis ……………………………………………………. 50 4.7 Research challenges ………………………………………………………………………….. 50 4.8 Mitigation strategies of research challenges …………………………………………………. 52 CHAPTER FIVE: STATUS OF HOUSEHOLD CAPITALS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP ………………………………………………………………………………... 53 5.1 Status of human capital ………………………………………………………………………. 53 5.1.1 Formal education ………………………………………………………………………… 53 5.1.2 Vocational education and training (VET) ……………………………………………… 56 5.1.3 Practical skills ……………………………………………………………………………. 57 5.1.4 Knowledge obtained through interaction and participation ……………………………... 58 5.1.5 Knowledge obtained through prior experience and indigenous activities ……………….. 59 5.1.6 Health ………………………………………………………............................................. 61 5.2 Status of other types of capital ……………………………………………………………….. 62 iv 5.2.1 Social capital …………………………………………………………………………….. 62 5.2.1.1 Bonding networks: Family members ……………………………………………… 63 5.2.1.2 Bridging networks: Support from neighbors and friends …………………………. 64 5.2.1.3 Linking networks: GOs and NGOs ……………………………………………….. 65 5.2.2 Financial capital ………………………………………………………………………….. 66 5.2.2.1 Household savings ………………………………………………………………… 66 5.2.2.2 Cash loans …………………………………………………………………………. 68 5.2.3 Physical capital ………………………………………………………………………….. 68 5.2.3.1 Housing …………………………………………………………………………… 68 5.2.3.2 Access to production machines …………………………………………………… 69 5.2.3.3 Access to household facilities …………………………………………………….. 70 5.2.4 Natural capital ……………………………………………………………………………. 70 5.2.4.1 Land ……………………………………………………………………………….. 70 5.2.4.2 Access to clean water ……………………………………………………………... 72 5.3 Relationships between human and other types of capital (natural, social, financial, and Physical) ……………………………………………………………………………………… 83 CHAPTER SIX: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DISASTER RESILIENCE AND HUMAN CAPITAL …………………………………………………………………………….. 86 6.1 Measuring disaster resilience …………………………………………………………………. 86 6.1.1 Constructing the composite index ……………………………………………………….. 86 6.1.1.1 Step 1: Theoretical orientation ……………………………………………………. 86 6.1.1.2 Step 2: Methodological approach …………………………………………………. 87 6.1.1.3 Step 3: Identifying the variables of each resilience component …………………... 88 6.1.1.4 Step 4: Data recoding and standardization ………………………………………... 91 6.1.1.5 Step 5: Perform PCA and extract latent variables of each component ……………. 92 6.1.1.6 Step 6: Estimate resilience ………………………………………………………… 97 6.1.1.7 Step 7: Categorize and visualize disaster resilience ………………………………. 99 6.2 Identification of significant indicators of human capital in relation to disaster resilience …… 104 6.3 Relationship between human capital and disaster resilience …………………………………. 105 CHAPTER SEVEN: DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS ……………………………………. 109 7.1 Household capitals in the study villages ……………………………………………………… 109 7.1.1 Human capital ……………………………………………………………………………. 109 7.1.2 Social capital ……………………………………………………………………………... 112 7.1.3 Financial capital ………………………………………………………………………….. 114 v 7.1.4 Physical capital …………………………………………………………………………... 115 7.1.5 Natural capital ……………………………………………………………………………. 116 7.2 Interrelation of the different forms of capital (natural, social, financial, and physical) ……… 117 7.3 Contribution of human capital to the enhancement of disaster resilience…………………….. 119 7.4 Limitations and recommendations for future research………………………………………... 121 REFERENCES ………………………………………………………………………………….. 122 APPENDIX ………………………………………………………………………………………. 146 ERKLÄRUNG …………………………………………………………………………………... 166 LEBENSLAUF ………………………………………………………………………………….. 168 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Community resilience indicators ………………………………………………………... 15 Table 2.2 Components of disaster resilience ………………………………………………………. 17 Table 2.3 Selected definitions of human capital …………………………………………………... 21 Table 2.4 Different measurement approaches of human capital …………………………………... 22 Table 3.1 Selected definitions of disaster resilience ………………………………………………. 27 Table 4.1 Description of the study areas/villages …………………………………………………. 44 Table 4.2 Interviews with selected key informants ………………………………………………... 50 Table 5.1 Literacy rates by age group ……………………………………………………………... 54 Table 5.2 Years of formal education by gender …………………………………………………… 55 Table 5.3 VET status in the study area ……………………………………………………………. 57 Table 5.4 Practical skills in the survey area ……………………………………………………….. 58 Table 5.5 Participation in knowledge building programs provided by GOs, NGOs, and CBOs ….. 59 Table 5.6 Experience gained during the recent cyclones and storm surges (10–15 years)… 60 Table 5.7 Support from family members ………………………………………………………….. 63 Table 5.8 Support from friends…………………………………………………………………….. 64 Table 5.9 Support from neighbors …………………………………………………………………. 65 Table 5.10 Respondents’ household’s savings …………………………………………………….. 67 Table 5.11 Types of household savings …………………………………………………………… 67 Table 5.12 Indicators used to construct the components of the capital index……………………… 76 Table 5.13 Results of PCA analysis: variance percentages and eigenvalues ……………………… 78 Table 5.14 Correlation matrix of types of capital………………………………………………….. 83 Table 6.1 Variables selected to measure the four components of disaster resilience at the household level…………………………………………….. 90 Table 6.2 Eigenvalues and variances explained with extracted factors (shaded) of HIC …………. 93 Table 6.3 Factor loadings on HIC …………………………………………………………………. 94 Table 6.4 Eigenvalues and variance explained with extracted factors (shaded) of HEC …………. 94 Table 6.5 Factor loadings on HEC ………………………………………………………………… 95 Table 6.6 Eigenvalues