SPACE SECURITY INDEX 2018 www.spacesecurityindex.org 15th Edition Featuring a global assessment of space security by Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan SPACE SECURITY INDEX 2018 WWW.SPACESECURITYINDEX.ORG iii Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publications Data Space Security Index 2018 ISBN: 978-1-927802-23-6 © 2018 SPACESECURITYINDEX.ORG Edited by Jessica West Design and layout by Creative Services, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Cover image: Launch of SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. Credit: SpaceX Printed in Canada Printer: Waterloo Printing, Waterloo, Ontario First published October 2018 Please direct enquiries to: Jessica West Project Ploughshares 140 Westmount Road North Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G6 Canada Telephone: 519-888-6541, ext. 24311 Fax: 519-888-0018 Email: [email protected] Governance Group Melissa de Zwart Research Unit for Military Law and Ethics The University of Adelaide Peter Hays Space Policy Institute, The George Washington University Ram Jakhu Institute of Air and Space Law, McGill University Cesar Jaramillo Project Ploughshares Paul Meyer The Simons Foundation Dale Stephens Research Unit for Military Law and Ethics The University of Adelaide Jinyuan Su School of Law, Xi’an Jiaotong University Project Manager Jessica West Project Ploughshares Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE PAGE 1 Acronyms and Abbreviations PAGE 5 Introduction PAGE 9 Acknowledgments PAGE 11 Executive Summary PAGE 19 Theme 1: Condition and knowledge of the space environment: This theme examines the security and sustainability of the space environment, with an emphasis on space debris; the allocation of scarce space resources; the potential threats posed by near-Earth objects and space weather; and the ability to detect, track, identify, and catalog objects in outer space. Indicator 1.1: Orbital debris Indicator 1.2: Radio frequency (RF) spectrum and orbital positions Indicator 1.3: Natural hazards originating from space Indicator 1.4: Space situational awareness PAGE 54 Theme 2: Access to and use of space by various actors: This theme examines the way in which space activity is conducted by a range of actors—governmental and nongovernmental—from the civil, commercial, and military sectors. Indicator 2.1: Space-based global utilities Indicator 2.2: Priorities and funding levels in civil space programs Indicator 2.3: International cooperation in space activities Indicator 2.4: Growth in the commercial space industry Indicator 2.5: Public-private collaboration on space activities Indicator 2.6: Space-based military systems PAGE 114 Theme 3: Security of space systems: This theme examines the research, development, testing, and deployment of capabilities that could be used to interfere with space systems and to protect them from potential negation efforts. Indicator 3.1: Vulnerability of satellite communications, broadcast links, and ground stations Indicator 3.2: Reconstitution and resilience of space systems Indicator 3.3: Earth-based capabilities to attack satellites Indicator 3.4: Space-based negation-enabling capabilities Space Security Index 2018 PAGE 133 Theme 4: Outer space governance: This theme examines national and international laws and regulations relevant to space security, in addition to the multilateral processes and institutions under which space security discussions take place. Indicator 4.1: National space policies Indicator 4.2: Multilateral forums for space governance Indicator 4.3: Other initiatives PAGE 149 Global Assessment: Achieving global cooperation in space security: Settling for less than the ideal Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan PAGE 156 Annex 1: Space Security Working Group meeting PAGE 159 Annex 2: Types of Earth orbits PAGE 160 Annex 3: Operational satellites by function PAGE 161 Annex 4: Guidelines for the long-term sustainability of outer space activities PAGE 162 Endnotes Acronyms and Abbreviations ADR Active Debris Removal ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AEHF Advanced Extremely High Frequency system (U.S.) AFSC Air Force Space Command (U.S.) AIDA Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment AIS Automatic Identification System ALTB Airborne Laser Test Bed ANGELS Automated Navigation and Guidance Experiment for Local Space (U.S.) APRSAF Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum APSCO Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization ARM Asteroid Redirect Mission (NASA) ASAT Anti-Satellite Weapon ASI Agenzia Spaziale Italiana BDS BeiDou Navigation Satellite System BMD Ballistic Missile Defense CALT China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology CAST China Academy of Space Technology CD Conference on Disarmament CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites CNES Centre national d’études spatiales (France) CNSA China National Space Administration COPUOS Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UN) COTS Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (U.S.) CSA Canadian Space Agency CSpoC Combined Space Operations Center (U.S.) CSSMA Commercial Smallsat Spectrum Management Association CSSS Canadian Space Surveillance System CWC Chemical Weapons Convention CYGNSS Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (NASA) DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (U.S.) DART Double Asteroid Redirection Test (NASA) DE-STAR Directed Energy System for Targeting of Asteroids and exploRation DLR German Aerospace Center DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (U.S.) DoD Department of Defense (U.S.) DSCOVR Deep Space Climate Observatory (U.S.) EDA European Defence Agency EDRS European Data Relay System EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (U.S.) EGNOS European Geostationary Navigation Overlay System EGS Enterprise Ground Service EKV Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle EO Earth Observation ESA European Space Agency 1 Space Security Index 2018 ESOA EMEA Satellite Operators Association EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FALCON Force Application and Launch from the Continental U.S. FCC Federal Communications Commission (U.S.) FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency (U.S.) FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FREND Front-end Robotics Enabling Near-term Demonstration GAO Government Accountability Office (U.S.) GEO Geostationary Earth Orbit GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GGE Group of Governmental Experts GLONASS Global Navigation Satellite System (Russia) GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (Europe) GNSS Global Navigation Satellite Systems GOES-R Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series GOLD Global Observations of the Limb and Disk (NASA) GPS Global Positioning System (U.S.) GSSAP Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program (U.S.) GTO Geostationary Transfer Orbit HELLADS High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System (U.S.) HEO Highly Elliptical Orbit IADC Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee IAWN International Asteroid Warning Network ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICG International Committee on GNSS (UN) ICoC International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities ICON Ionosphere Connection Explorer (NASA) IGS International GNSS Service IRNSS Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System IRS Indian Remote Sensing ISON International Scientific Optical Network ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation ISS International Space Station ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations (U.S.) ITU International Telecommunication Union JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency JICSpOC Joint Interagency Combined Space Operations Center (U.S.) JMS JSpOC Mission System (U.S.) JPSS Joint Polar Satellite System (U.S.) JSDTF Joint Space Doctrine and Tactics Forum JSpOC Joint Space Operations Center (U.S.) KARI Korea Aerospace Research Institute KITE Kounotori Integrated Tether Experiments (Japan) 2 Acronyms and Abbreviations LEO Low Earth Orbit M3MSat Maritime Monitoring and Messaging Microsatellite (Canada) MDA Missile Defense Agency (U.S.) MEO Medium Earth Orbit MEV Mission Extension Vehicle MIFR Master International Frequency Register MiTEx Micro-satellite Technology Experiment (U.S.) MPC Minor Planet Center MUOS Mobile User Objective System NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (U.S.) NDAA National Defense Authorization Act (U.S.) NEO Near Earth Object NEOSSat Near-Earth Object Surveillance Satellite (Cda) NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (U.S.) NGSO Non-Geostationary Orbit NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.) NRO National Reconnaissance Office (U.S.) OCX Operational Control System ODPO Orbital Debris Program Office (NASA) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OPALS Optical Payload for Lasercomm Science OPIR Overhead Persistent Infrared ORS Operationally Responsive Space (U.S.) OST Outer Space Treaty PAROS Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space PDCO Planetary Defense Coordination Office PDSA Principal DoD Space Advisor PHA Potentially Hazardous Asteroid PNT Position, Navigation, and Timing PPWT Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects QUESS Quantum Experiments at Space Scale QZSS Quazi-Zenith Satellite System (Japan) RF Radio Frequency Roscosmos Russian Federal Space Agency RRB Radio Regulations Board SAR Search-and-Rescue SBIRS Space-based Infrared System SBSS Space Based Space Surveillance (U.S.) SDA Space Data Association SDG Social Development Goal SEV Space Enterprise Vision (U.S.) SIA Satellite Industry Association 3 Space Security Index 2018 SIGINT Signals Intelligence SLS Space Launcher System (U.S.)