The London School of Economics and Political Science The Socio-Economic Spill-over Effects of Armed Conflict on Neighbouring Countries Thomas Höhne-Sparborth A thesis submitted to the Department of International Development of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, January 2018 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 99,118 words. 2 Abstract This thesis explores the channels by which armed conflict may have wider regional effects through socio-economic spill-over effects. Collier (1999) has explored the economic consequences of civil war and other authors such as Murdoch and Sandler (2004) and de Groot (2010) have sought to verify the existence of neighbourhood effects through quantitative, large-N studies. These studies have only found mixed evidence of a net negative effect and have failed to identify the channels through which conflict affects neighbouring countries. This thesis adopts a case study approach to complement the longitudinal studies that have dominated the analysis of spill-over effects, focusing its primary case study on the example of Zambia, which experienced prolonged exposure to conflicts in Rhodesia, Mozambique, Angola and the DRC. Progressing from a survey of potential spill-over effects postulated in the existing literature, this thesis finds that the actual neighbourhood effects on Zambia have been more numerous and more ambiguous than previously acknowledged. In separate chapters on trade and investment, human capital and migration, food security, and military expenditure, this thesis assesses the range of effects by which these conflicts affected Zambia’s development. The thesis argues that trade and investment, agricultural policies, food security, and the escalation of government debt were affected by the pattern of regional instability, often in unexpected ways that defy easy generalisation. In addition to the Zambian case, the thesis offers a comparison with examples from Malawi, Belize, Jordan and Thailand. These supporting case studies demonstrate that the mechanisms identified in the study have widespread relevance in varied conflict situations, but that the net effect of individual channels of spill-over are dependent on local risk factors and policies. The thesis concludes with the provision of a framework outlining the various channels by which spill-over occurs, the risk factors involved, and possible policy responses. 3 Acknowledgements This thesis was completed over a five-year period and inevitably benefited from innumerable instances of advice, support and guidance, without which this thesis could not have been completed in its present form. Although I cannot hope to fully repay the kindness with which countless individuals provided various forms of input, I gratefully acknowledge their contributions, even if not all such persons could be mentioned individually below. First, I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisors, Dr. Elliott Green and Dr. Rajesh Venugopal, whose expert academic insight helped provide structure and direction to this thesis. Their keen eye proved to be an invaluable guide to the methods and pitfalls of doctoral research, helped sift the wheat from the chaff and distil the thesis’ core argument into a clearer whole. Financial support for this thesis was also provided by the Department for International Development, as well as the Newby Trust. The grant provided by the Newby Trust facilitated the field research component of this thesis in Zambia, and contributed greatly to the depth of insight this thesis has been able to provide. I am also grateful to my employer, Roskill Information Services, for helping to facilitate time off for these extended field trips. It is my fervent hope that the findings of this thesis will be deemed a fruitful result of all these forms of generosity. The success of these field trips, moreover, also benefited notably from the selfless support of several other individuals and institutions. I am grateful to the staff of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Ms. Annie Lane for agreeing to provide me with an office to work from while in Lusaka, as well as several useful introductions. Anthony Lippmann, David Weight and Dr. Laura Tilling provided helpful introductions to contacts in the Zambian Copperbelt and helped ensure a smooth landing upon my arrival in Zambia. Contacting hard-to-reach individuals in Zambia was also made much easier with the assistance and connections of fellow academics, including Dr. Sishuwa Sishuwa and Dr. Hugh MacMillan at the University of Oxford, as well as Dr. Marja Hinfelaar and others at the South African Institute for Policy and Research in Lusaka (SAIPAR). The highlight of my field work in Zambia, certainly, were the interviews and conversations with numerous individuals, whose diverse backgrounds provided unique perspectives I could not have hoped to have gleaned from any other source. It is a testimony to the open and welcoming nature of Zambia’s society that, with few exceptions, contacts were glad to speak with a foreign stranger, and dealt with my questions with patience and understanding. 4 Appendix 1 provides an overview of the formal interviews conducted as part of this research, but the many informal conversations over the course of my stay contributed immeasurably to piecing together Zambia’s rich history. A particular thank you goes out to Mabvuto Chibende, whose keen mind and interest in his country were a great aid to this research. Mabvuto not only helped me understand Zambia’s culture and society, but also provided valuable archival research assistance, and assisted with undertaking several supplementary interviews with contacts who I had not been able to speak with during my own stays in Zambia. Mabvuto’s mother, Ethel Chibende, also proved to be a warm-hearted host and excellent guide to Mufulira and other locations in Zambia’s Copperbelt and made the time spent away feel like a home away from home. Naturally, this work also benefited in many subtle ways from the endless support of my family and my girlfriend, whose love and dedication helped me stay the course and maintain my sanity during the long hours that were needed to complete this work. I can hardly imagine the patience that must have been required to entertain my many loose thoughts and ideas, or the sympathy needed to appreciate the inevitably hectic periods when completion of the thesis took primacy over other aspects of life. It is because of this support that this thesis did not come to represent a hardship, but was completed as a project of passion. Finally, I would like to conclude with a specific expression of gratitude to my father, whose limitless interest in this thesis and encyclopaedic historical knowledge helped spot many factual errors. His assistance in bringing order to a veritable heap of archival data made a radical difference in my ability to review this material and I know of few other persons who would as willingly have read through repeated iterations of the chapters in this thesis, especially when many of these were still in a barely-readable shape. 5 Contents Declaration .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 4 Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 6 List of tables ............................................................................................................................................ 9 List of figures ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Part 1: Background ..................................................................................................................... 12 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 13 1.1 Portugal: An example ............................................................................................................ 13 1.2 The argument ........................................................................................................................ 15 1.3 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 20 1.4 Selection of primary case study ...........................................................................................