A Vision of Future Transit Ridership in Florida Final Report Project Manager Gabrielle Matthews Florida Department of Transportation 605 Suwannee Street, MS 26 Tallahassee, FL 32399 (850) 414-4532 [email protected] Prepared by: Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, CUT-100 Tampa, FL 33620-5375 June 2013 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................................. 3 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................ 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 9 Population and Age Trends ....................................................................................................................... 9 Transit Trends ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Findings ................................................................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 19 Data ......................................................................................................................................................... 19 U.S. Census Data ................................................................................................................................. 19 American Community Survey ............................................................................................................. 20 National Household Travel Survey ...................................................................................................... 20 ESRI Projected Demographics ............................................................................................................. 20 Bureau of Economic and Business Research....................................................................................... 20 National Transit Database ................................................................................................................... 21 Other Data Sources and Literature ..................................................................................................... 21 Report Organization ................................................................................................................................ 21 CHAPTER 2: DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC TRENDS ................................................................... 23 Population Trends ................................................................................................................................... 23 Age Trends .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Baby Boomers ..................................................................................................................................... 26 Millennials ........................................................................................................................................... 28 Other Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Land Uses ............................................................................................................................................ 30 Jobs and Education ............................................................................................................................. 31 The Economy ....................................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 3: TRANSIT TRENDS .................................................................................................................... 33 Impacts of the Economy ......................................................................................................................... 33 Ridership and Service .............................................................................................................................. 33 Market Information ................................................................................................................................ 35 A Vision of Future Transit Ridership 1 Final Report: June 2013 in Florida CHAPTER 4: FLORIDA’S URBANIZED AREAS ............................................................................................... 37 FDOT District One ................................................................................................................................... 39 FDOT District Two ................................................................................................................................... 57 FDOT District Three ................................................................................................................................. 67 FDOT Districts Four and Six ..................................................................................................................... 78 FDOT District Five .................................................................................................................................... 89 FDOT District Seven .............................................................................................................................. 110 CHAPTER 5: FINDINGS – A VISION OF FUTURE TRANSIT RIDERSHIP IN FLORIDA .................................... 121 Findings ................................................................................................................................................. 121 WORKS CITED ............................................................................................................................................ 125 APPENDIX A: Annotated Bibliography ..................................................................................................... 129 APPENDIX B: Florida Urban Fixed-Route Transit Statistics ...................................................................... 143 APPENDIX C: Calculation of Projected 2017 UZA Data ............................................................................ 145 APPENDIX D: Data Tables ......................................................................................................................... 147 A Vision of Future Transit Ridership 2 Final Report: June 2013 in Florida LIST OF TABLES Table ES-1: Population Trends and Projections, U.S. and Florida ................................................................. 9 Table ES-2: Public Transportation Statistics for Florida and the U.S., 2000 and 2010 ............................... 14 Table 1: Population Trends and Projections, U.S. and Florida .................................................................... 23 Table 2: Public Transportation Statistics for Florida and the U.S., 2000 and 2010 .................................... 34 Table 3: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District One UZAs and Florida .................................... 50 Table 4: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District One Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010 ...... 56 Table 5: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District Two UZAs and Florida .................................... 62 Table 6: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District Two Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010...... 66 Table 7: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District Three UZAs and Florida ................................. 73 Table 8: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District Three Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010 ... 77 Table 9: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District Four and Six UZAs and Florida ....................... 83 Table 10: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District Four and Six Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010 ............................................................................................................................. 88 Table 11: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District Five UZAs and Florida ................................ 103 Table 12: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District Five Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010 .. 109 Table 13: Population Trends and Projections, FDOT District Seven UZAs and Florida ............................. 116 Table 14: Ridership and Service Supply for FDOT District Seven Urban Transit Systems, 2000 and 2010 .......................................................................................................................... 120 Table B1: Florida Urban Fixed-Route Transit Systems: Service Area Population and Average Fare ....... 143 Table B2: Florida Urban Fixed-Route Transit Systems: Passenger Trips and Revenue Miles .................. 144 Table D1: Florida UZA Population Statistics – 2000 and 2010 Actual, 2017 Projected ............................ 147 Table D2: Florida Relevant County Population Statistics – 2000 and 2010 Actual, 2015 and 2020 Projected ................................................................................................................................... 148 Table D3: Florida UZA Age Statistics