National Observatory for the Impacts of Global Warming Cities and adapting to climate change Report to the Prime Minister and Parliament 2010 1 Contents A word from the President...........................................................................................................................3 Executive summary ......................................................................................................................................5 Foreword .....................................................................................................................................................11 Chapter 1 Cities today, how vulnerable are they to climate change? ....................................................13 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................13 An overall view - changing cities and a changing climate .......................................................................14 Cities and the risks linked to climate change............................................................................................20 Chapter 2 Towns today, laboratories for adapting to climate change ...................................................47 Introduction: adaptation, a process in the making...................................................................................47 Current adaptation practices in French towns and cities.........................................................................48 International experience: overview ..........................................................................................................59 Levers and barriers to adaptation: discussion .........................................................................................68 What place should be given to policies and measures not labelled “adaptation” in a perspective of adaptation to climate change?..................................................................................................................73 Perspectives..............................................................................................................................................77 Conclusion: a framework of thinking for adaptation in towns .................................................................80 Perspectives: urban research relating to climate issues ..........................................................................82 Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................82 Organisation of research teams and expertise .........................................................................................82 Research programmes ..............................................................................................................................84 Conclusion................................................................................................................................................88 APPENDIX 1 : Research programmes.....................................................................................................89 National Research Agency (ANR) programmes .......................................................................................89 Interdisciplinary Research Programme on the City and the Environment (PIRVE) ................................97 Managing the Impacts of Climate Change programme (GICC)............................................................. 100 The MEEDDM Urban Planning, Construction, Architecture Plan (PUCA) and the National Research and Experimentation Programme on Energy in Buildings (PREBAT)...................................................104 The Programme for Research and Development in Land Transport (PREDIT) .................................... 105 The Plant and City programme .............................................................................................................. 106 Targeted projects.................................................................................................................................... 106 European research within the URBAN-NET programme framework.....................................................117 APPENDIX 2 : Associations of cities on an international scale............................................................ 118 APPENDIX 3 : City surveys .................................................................................................................... 123 APPENDIX 4 : Consultation in preparation for the national climate change adaptation plan.........124 APPENDIX 5 : The Observatory’s activities in 2009 and 2010............................................................ 131 APPENDIX 6 : Bibliography................................................................................................................... 138 APPENDIX 7 : Abbreviations and acronyms ........................................................................................ 143 APPENDIX 8 : People who contributed to drawing up this report ..................................................... 145 2 A word from the President Would it be an exaggeration to say that the fate of our world today depends on the ability of the cities and megalopolises of the world to rally in the fight against climate change? Demographics alone would be sufficient to provide an answer. The demographic surge that the world has experienced for more than a century which has pushed the global population from 2 billion people in 1900 to 6.8 billion today has been accompanied by an unprecedented exodus from rural areas and has led to significant expansion of cities. We must never lose sight of the fact that although almost half of the world’s population are already city dwellers, according to the United Nations some 70% of the population will live in cities or urban areas by 2050. By 2050, the planet will have to sustain a population of 9 to 10 billion inhabitants. It is in cities, therefore, that the effects of the of climate changes will be felt by the majority of people. To this demographic fact should be added the IPCC conclusions which confirm that within territories cities are often the focus of particularly high levels of vulnerability. In fact, the complexity of the organisation of large human cities makes them particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, be they in the form of heat waves, flooding or hurricanes. The heat wave in France in 2003, which caused more than 15,000 unexpected deaths proved how ill-equipped the organisation of public services and current urban lifestyles are for new climate situations. The damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, in the world’s most powerful nation, also demonstrated the vulnerability of human societies to the forces of nature when they are designed and built without regard for the environment. Today, it is our responsibility to design the city of the future by integrating the climate of the future into it. It is a matter of collective security. Although it is absolutely crucial to monitor how smaller countries face the impacts of climate change, or how little island states can be provided with the means to adapt to predicted changes, it is equally pressing to look at megalopolises. How will cities in developing countries confront the dangers which researchers predict will probably intensify? It is difficult not to feel concern for all those towns in the north and south alike situated in the deltas of major rivers and directly threatened by rising sea levels which could reach 1 metre in 2100. We should never forget that Europe, the continent with the greatest amount of indented coastline on which major ports and cities are located, is particularly affected by this issue. This report, which was requested by the Advisory Committee of ONERC, presents a summary of the impacts of climate change on cities and in particular an analysis of vulnerability factors as an aid decision-making. It presents the proliferation of ideas and innovative policies implemented in France by local authorities and looks at certain relevant experiences from abroad. As a staging post in the implementation of adaptation policies, this report shows that knowledge still needs to be supplemented in these fields, but that political decision-making is beginning to factor the climate element into the production of development strategies for our territories. The creation of ONERC in 2001, on the basis of a law voted by parliament, was the first step towards the process of developing an adaptation strategy for our nation. By adopting almost unanimously the framework law of 19 July 2009 for the implementation of the Grenelle Environment Forum, parliament once again demonstrated its willingness to equip France with the necessary tools to confront the challenge of climate change through the medium of a national plan due to begin in 2011. The expertise on adaptation policy accumulated by ONERC since its creation led to it being tasked to implement and coordinate the vast consultation exercise on the National Adaptation Plan requested by the Minister of State for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and the Sea. This consultation exercise based on the principle of the Grenelle model meant that a huge debate could be initiated involving the whole of the active civil population and its wealth of suggestions. 3 I hope that this report, which follows on from the report on the cost of climate change