New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council EAST INTEGRATED TRANSPORT STRATEGY: DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Final Report 001 JULY 2018 CONFIDENTIAL New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council EAST INTEGRATED TRANSPORT STRATEGY: DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Final Report TYPE OF DOCUMENT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 62240377 OUR REF. NO. 001 DATE: JULY 2018 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council EAST INTEGRATED TRANSPORT STRATEGY: DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM ECONOMIC SCENARIOS Final Report WSP St. Johns House Queen Street Manchester M2 5JB Phone: +44 161 602 8400 WSP.com QUALITY CONTROL Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Draft Final Date 02/07/17 31/07/18 Prepared by GP/PR GP/PR Signature Checked by PR PR Signature Authorised by GP GP Signature Project number 62240377 62240377 Report number 01 01 File reference East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios WSP Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 July 2018 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND APPROACH 1 1.2 DEFINING THE STUDY AREA 1 1.3 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT 1 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT 1 2 VISION AND OBJECTIVES 2 2.1 THE AMBITION 2 2.2 OBJECTIVES 2 3 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY 3 3.1 INTRODUCTION 3 3.2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND GVA 3 3.3 DEMOGRAPHICS AND SKILLS 3 3.4 EMPLOYMENT 4 3.5 STRATEGIC ECONOMIC PLAN FOR NEW ANGLIA 6 3.6 GROWTH AND CORE SECTORS 7 3.7 PROGRESS IN THE SEP TO DATE 7 3.8 DEPRIVATION 7 4 TRANSPORTATION GEOGRAPHY 16 4.1 OVERVIEW 16 4.2 DENSITY 16 4.3 AIRPORTS 19 4.4 SEAPORTS AND FREIGHT FLOWS 22 4.5 FREIGHT IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 23 4.6 ENERGY 25 4.7 RAILWAYS 26 East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios WSP Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 July 2018 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council 4.8 ROAD NETWORK 30 4.9 CYCLE NETWORK 34 4.10 TRAVEL TO WORK MOVEMENTS 35 4.11 TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS 37 5 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND TRANSPORTATION GEOGRAPHIES 41 5.1 CHALLENGES 41 5.2 OPPORTUNITIES 42 6 PLANNED CHANGE 43 6.1 OVERVIEW 43 6.2 STRATEGIC ECONOMIC PLAN 43 6.3 LAND USE AND INFRASTRUCTURE FRAMEWORKS 47 6.4 LOCAL PLANS 49 6.5 LOCAL TRANSPORT PLANS 52 6.6 BUS TRAVEL 54 6.7 ACTIVE MODES 55 6.8 ROADS INVESTMENT STRATEGY – HIGHWAYS ENGLAND 55 6.9 ENHANCEMENTS DELIVERY PLAN – NETWORK RAIL 58 6.10 GREATER ANGLIA FRANCHISE – 2016 TO 2025 61 6.11 EAST MIDLANDS FRANCHISE RENEWAL 63 6.12 COMMUNITY RAIL PARTNERSHIPS 63 6.13 AIRPORTS 64 6.14 PORTS 65 6.15 DIGITAL COMMUNICATION NETWORKS 66 6.16 PROJECTED GROWTH IN JOURNEYS 69 6.17 ACCESSIBILITY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 70 6.18 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 72 7 GLOBAL TRENDS AND DISRUPTORS 74 7.1 OVERVIEW 74 7.2 GLOBAL TRENDS 74 7.3 TRANSPORTATION TRENDS AND DISRUPTORS 75 WSP East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios July 2018 Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council 8 ECONOMIC FUTURES 77 8.1 INTRODUCTION 77 8.2 APPROACH 78 8.3 NEW ANGLIA ECONOMIC FUTURES 79 8.4 IMPLICATIONS FOR TRANSPORT DEMAND AND CONNECTIVITY 117 9 DEVELOPING TRANSPORT SCENARIOS 121 9.1 OVERVIEW 121 9.2 DEVELOPING THE TRANSPORTATION GLIDEPATH TO 2030 122 9.3 DEVELOPING A TRANSPORT SCENARIO FOR 2030 – PREPARING FOR A CHANGING ACCESSIBILITY MARKET 126 9.4 DEVELOPING A TRANSPORT SCENARIO FOR 2040 – CAPITALISING ON TECHNOLOGY AND NEW SERVICE MODELS 129 9.5 CONSIDERING TRANSPORTATION IN BEYOND 2040 – A TRANSFORMED NETWORK 132 10 TRANSPORTATION STRATEGY THEMES AND COMPONENTS 133 10.1 UNLOCKING IMPROVED ACCESSIBILITY 133 10.2 ANTICIPATING THE FUTURE AND BEING AGILE TO CHANGE 134 10.3 ACTION PLAN 139 APPENDIX A – GLIDEPATHS 141 APPENDIX B – STRATEGY COMPONENTS 185 East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios WSP Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 July 2018 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND APPROACH The New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council have jointly commissioned WSP and KPMG to develop a range of economic futures for the East over the next 30 to 40 years with associated scenarios for the development of the region’s transport system in order to inform its transport strategy. The primary objective of the work is to develop a range of future economic scenarios looking 30 to 40 years hence. For each scenario, this commission sets out how transport systems should evolve, be innovatively developed, or change organically, to reflect future economic activity. This work builds on the evolving transport strategy that has been developed by the New Anglia Local Transport Board, and it is noted that this has generally looked at short term timescales. 1.2 DEFINING THE STUDY AREA This study focuses on Norfolk and Suffolk, which together form the area covered by the New Anglia LEP. The scope of the strategy is the combined are of these two counties in terms of transport connectivity and economic and geographic conditions. 1.3 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT This document is the final report and evidence to support the short summary report also produced as part of the commission. The report presents all of the background transport and economic analysis undertaken to develop the strategy, provides the economic futures and transport scenarios and presents the overall strategy itself and its component parts. 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT Following on from this introduction, the following sections are presented: Section 2 – Vision and objectives for the strategy Section 3 – presents the economic geography of the New Anglia region Section 4 – presents the transportation geography of the region Section 5 – a summary of those geographies Section 6 – discusses planned change within New Anglia Section 7 – discusses global trends and disruptors that will affect the New Anglia economy and transport Section 8 – presents the economic futures for New Anglia Section 9 – presents the future transport scenarios for the region Section 10 – presents the transportation strategy themes and components East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios WSP Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 July 2018 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council Page 1 of 193 2 VISION AND OBJECTIVES 2.1 THE AMBITION The New Anglia Strategic Economic Plan sets out its ambition for the area as being: ‘To harness our distinct sector strengths and our natural assets to deliver more jobs, new businesses and housing’. This ambition is supported by the detail of delivering 95,000 new jobs, 10,000 new businesses, improved productivity and 117,000 new houses. The ambition is also based on growth in key sectors of advanced manufacturing & engineering, agri-tech, energy, ICT & digital creative, and life sciences. 2.2 OBJECTIVES When considering objectives for transport, thought needs to be given to serving needs rather than simply providing infrastructure and services. Transport is a means by which needs are served through the provision of access for both people and business. However, access is increasingly being provided without the need for people to physically move from one location to another and this change is likely to become even greater over the coming decades. The objectives for this commission, therefore, need to focus on providing access rather than simply improving transport: To provide access to new employment growth opportunities; To provide access to support the development of new businesses; To improve access to deliver increased productivity; To provide access to new housing developments; To provide access to the needs of the population to enhance wellbeing. WSP East Integrated Transport Strategy: Development of Long-Term Economic Scenarios July 2018 Project No.: 62240377 | Our Ref No.: 001 New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership, Norfolk County Council and Suffolk County Council 3 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY 3.1 INTRODUCTION This section provides an overview of the economy of New Anglia as presented at the stakeholder workshop on 30th November 2016. The purpose of this item was to provide the basis for more detailed discussion on the future of different sectors. The development of economic futures will use a sector led approach which is not presented in this document. 3.2 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND GVA New Anglia had a total (nominal) GVA of £34m in 2014 making it the 13th largest LEP in UK. In 2014 the GVA per head was £21,000 – 85% of the UK average. Between 2010 and 2014 nominal GVA grew on average 2.6% per year (CAGR), while nominal GVA per head grew 2.1% (CAGR). The GVA estimates are on a workplace basis and are presented in current basic prices. Figure 0-1 – New Anglia – GVA Trend over 5 years 35,000 33,894 34,000 33,000 32,564 32,000 31,517 31,000 30,543 (£ million)(£ 29,783 30,000 29,000 28,000 27,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GVA (£ million) 3.3 DEMOGRAPHICS AND SKILLS New Anglia’s total population of 1.6 million has a notably different demographic mix to the average across England. A higher proportion of the population is aged more than 50 (49% compared to 42%) and lower proportion of the population is aged between 25 and 49 (37% compared to 42%).