MARKET NEWS, DATA AND INSIGHT ALL DAY, EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY 16 AUGUST 2017 ISSUE 4,913 Big Interview: Allianz’s Axel Theis Mitigating the risk of demographic change p4-5 Life and health casts a pall over Risk Foresight: Talanx’s targets upgrade US-North Korea brinkmanship rhetoric raises retaliation risk p3 p6 Insurance Day has transformed to meet your needs The new Insurance Day website has been designed around our readers’ preferences Just some of and usage – so it’s fast, optimised for mobile, the features the new Insurance Day with smart navigation and personalisation. website delivers See for yourself – visit insuranceday.com Personalised content Improved discoverability Fully mobile ID-Client Feedback-Ad-260x70.indd 1 08/06/2017 14:40 2 www.insuranceday.com | Wednesday 16 August 2017 NEWS North-west Pacific storm Market news, data and insight all day, every day Insurance Day is the world’s only daily newspaper for the international insurance and reinsurance and risk industries. Its primary focus is on the London market and what affects it, activity bucking forecast concentrating on the key areas of catastrophe, property and marine, aviation and transportation. It is available in print, PDF, mobile and online versions and is read by more than 10,000 people in more than 70 countries worldwide. of below-average year First published in 1995, Insurance Day has become the favourite publication for the London market, which relies on its mix of news, analysis and data to keep in touch with this fast-moving and vitally important sector. Its experienced and highly skilled insurance writers are well known and respected in the market and their insight is both compelling and valuable. The number of storms in the north-west Pacific so far this Insurance Day also produces a number of must-attend annual events to complement its daily output, including the Insurance year has been slightly above normal, against expectations of a Day London Market Awards, which recognise and celebrate the very best in the industry. below-average year For more detail on Insurance Day and how to subscribe or attend its events, go to subscribe.insuranceday.com Scott Vincent Editor, news services Typhoon Noru: although it Insurance Day, Christchurch Court, 10-15 Newgate Street, impacted Japan for around five London EC1A 7HD days, initial reports have not suggested substantial damage Editor: Michael Faulkner orth-west Pacific typhoon +44(0)20 7017 7084 activity has topped expec- [email protected] tations for the year so far, Deputy editor: Lorenzo Spoerry despite forecasts of be- +44 (0)20 7017 6340 Nlow-average activity in 2017. [email protected] The year to date has seen 12 tropical cyclones in the basin, with Typhoon Editor, news services: Scott Vincent +44 (0)20 7017 4131 Noru recently becoming the first of [email protected] the year to affect Japan, which is home to the basin’s largest concentration of Reporter: Rebecca Hancock insured exposures. +44 (0)20 7017 5570 Noru has been blamed for two deaths [email protected] in the country, but reports of property Global markets editor: Graham Village damage are so far limited. +44 (0)20 7017 4020 Expectations of below-average activi- [email protected] ty in the north-west Pacific were linked to the absence of the expected develop- the longest being Typhoon Rita in 1972,” country. “This was twice the average Global markets editor: Rasaad Jamie +44 (0)20 7017 4103 ment of El Niño conditions, which can Trevino said. number of storms to impact Japan [email protected] enhance potential for storm develop- Although Noru affected Japan for during a year. Many of these events ment in the basin. around five days – an unusually long were consecutive, arriving one after Head of subscriptions: Carl Josey +44(0)20 7017 7952 In July, Tropical Storm Risk said it period – initial reports have not sug- the other,” Trevino said. Key account manager: Abby Straker +44(0)20 7017 7299 expected activity to be between 10% gested substantial damage. Rainfall She cautioned activity to date held Account manager: Matthew Smith +44(0)20 7017 7894 and 20% below the long-term average, associated with the storm was more little guidance as to what may happen Business development manager: Toby Nunn +44(0)20 7017 4997 particularly in light of the absence of damaging than winds, but while some in the coming months. Advertising/events: Jefferson Emesibe +44(0)20 7017 4061 early season typhoon activity. reports of flooding have emerged, these “Many of the basin’s most severe Head of production: Liz Lewis +44 (0)20 7017 7389 However, while the season’s fore- have not been widespread. storms occur in September or later,” Production editor: Toby Huntington +44 (0)20 7017 5705 Subeditor: Jessica Sewell +44 (0)20 7017 5161 casts have been for below-normal ac- Japan has seen significant activity she said. “Last year saw a very late start Events manager: Natalia Kay +44 (0)20 7017 5173 tivity, activity in 2017 to date has been in 2017 so far, with 12 events either to the season basin-wide but still man- around average. bypassing or making landfall in the aged to produce 26 events.” Editorial fax: +44 (0)20 7017 4554 Anna Trevino, senior scientist at AIR Display/classified advertising fax: +44 (0)20 7017 4554 Subscriptions fax: +44 (0)20 7017 4097 Worldwide, told Insurance Day: “So far we have seen 12 tropical cyclones. By Cyclone Debbie costs remain All staff email: [email protected] this time of year, the average is normal- Insurance Day is an editorially independent newspaper and ly around 10. highest of year at A$1.4bn opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Informa UK “Although El Niño is in a neutral Ltd. Informa UK Ltd does not guarantee the accuracy of the phase, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation With Typhoon Noru causing only lim- facing a $360m bill, recorded in its information contained in Insurance Day, nor does it accept [PDO] is in a positive phase and this has ited damage in Japan and this year’s first-half results. Berkshire Hathaway responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. an impact similar to El Niño.” Atlantic season yet to see a major hur- Reinsurance Group reported a $115m ISSN 1461-5541. Registered as a newspaper at the Post Office. The PDO is a recurring climate pat- ricane, Cyclone Debbie’s landfall in impact in its first-half figures. Published in London by Informa UK Ltd, 5 Howick Place, London, SW1P 1WG. tern than affects sea-surface tempera- Australia in March remains the costli- Treaties that were affected by losses tures and as a result can also influence est cyclonic event so far in 2017. from Debbie, as well as those impacted Printed by Stroma, Unit 17, 142 Johnson Street, Southall, storm formation. The Insurance Council of Austra- by New Zealand earthquake activity, Middlesex UB2 5FD Japan usually sees its first landfall in lia increased its estimate for Debbie saw significant price increases at the © Informa UK Ltd 2017. mid-July. Noru formed on July 23 and to A$1.4bn ($1.09bn) earlier this week, summer renewals. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a was a very unusual typhoon in terms of reflecting more than 66,000 claims re- However, according to Hannover retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any track and longevity, not making landfall ceived by insurers in the aftermath of Re, appreciable premium erosion was means electronic, mechanical, photographic, recorded or until two weeks after its formation. the event. seen on programmes that had been otherwise without the written permission of the publisher “Noru was the second-longest-lived Damage from Debbie left Swiss Re spared losses in the region. of Insurance Day. typhoon in the basin on record, with www.insuranceday.com | Wednesday 16 August 2017 3 NEWS Life and health casts a pall over Talanx’s targets upgrade Talanx’s strong results in the property/casualty business cannot detract from a questionable performance from the life and health reinsurance segment Re Group’s individual life busi- Lorenzo Spoerry ness, which continues to generate Deputy editor a much less positive mortality ex- perience than expected. That deal, Bankhaus Lampe analyst Andreas Schäfer said, raises doubts about alanx AG pleased the Talanx’s savoir-faire in the life and market by upgrading health reinsurance space. its full-year profit tar- “Usually they are pretty good at get by €50m ($58.7m) pricing and setting reserves cor- Tto “around” €850m, but a disap- rectly, but this book that was ac- pointing performance in the life quired in 2009 has always caused and health reinsurance business problems,” he said. worried analysts. Equinet analyst Philipp Hässler The majority owner of Hannover told Insurance Day that Talanx’s Re booked net income of €463m in life and health business is “a risk Talanx raises earnings forecast the first half, up 15% year-on-year, factor” that threatens to continue and a 7% hike in gross written pre- to drag on earnings. miums to €17.6bn. The result was In line with Schäfer, he said that, after strong first half driven by a boost in the property/ with the exception of that weak casualty reinsurance business, spot, Talanx’s overall result was of German insurance and rein- outlook for group net income in The group’s combined ratio especially in reinsurance and the good quality. surance group Talanx AG has 2017 from €800m to €850m. was stable at 97%.