Flipping the switch to electric cars: Seven factors transforming the future of the automotive industry The e-mobility era: Winning the race for electric cars By Dr. Gregor Matthies, Dr. Klaus Stricker and Dr. Jan Traenckner Dr. Gregor Matthies is a partner at Bain & Company in Munich and leads the European Automotive practice. His clients are primarily companies in the auto- mobile and aerospace industries as well as private equity fund portfolio companies. He advises on issues of strategy development, organization and restructuring. After studying aviation and space technology in Munich, Gregor Matthies was awarded a doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Duisburg. Dr. Klaus Stricker is a partner at Bain & Company in Frankfurt. His clients include companies in industry and the automotive business. He advises on issues of strategic reorientation, restructuring and reorganization. He also assists corporate clients in developing and implementing operational improvement programs. Klaus Stricker studied industrial engineering at the Technical University in Wien and was awarded a doctorate in production engineering. Dr. Jan Traenckner is an electro-mobility expert. After completing studies in elec- trical engineering and obtaining a doctorate as an engineer, he went on to work as a corporate consultant. As an expert in technology and innovation, he has been active since 1997 as an independent investor and strategy consultant. For the past two years he intensively studied e-mobility and also has experience in the strategic exploitation of technologically driven megatrends. Dr. Traenckner helps industrial companies better understand the new megatrend of e-mobility and position themselves accordingly. Copyright © 2010 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Content: Manjari Raman, Elaine Cummings Layout: Global Design The e-mobility era: Winning the race for electric cars Flipping the switch powered sports car at a sticker price of more than $100,000. A host of celebrities ordered to electric cars: Seven one on the spot, and suddenly e-cars were hot. factors transforming Within a few years, what had been a sideline became an image platform on which the indus- the future of the try’s hopes for the future rested. Though virtually automotive industry none of the carmakers had an e-car to offer for daily use, from that point on, the media land- scape, the political scene and the motor shows By the year 2020, one in two new cars will be were dominated by battery-powered vehicles. either partly or fully powered by electricity. That may surprise many market observers, Since then, every major car manufacturer has who regard the current hype and numerous joined the e-mobility bandwagon. German pre- battery-powered prototypes as a knee-jerk mium automakers were quick off the mark: reaction by an automotive industry under stress. The past year has seen a crop of pilot and con- But e-mobility is no marketing fancy. Bain & cept cars, with two e-Tron prototypes from Audi, Company presents seven reasons that explain the E-Mini and the ActiveE from BMW, and why an industry switch to electric cars in their the Smart Electric Drive (ED) and BlueZERO various forms constitutes a fundamental and from Mercedes-Benz. Japanese companies like irreversible change: Toyota and Honda and US companies such as General Motors and Ford are in the fray, 1. In 10 years, at the latest, the e-car will be along with Chinese brands like BYD, Cheery a mass-market product and Geely. By 2012, there will be more than 2. E-cars are being launched as today’s new 100 partial or fully electric vehicle brands in lifestyle product the market. 3. The electric car is not just a product variant— But when and how will the e-car genuinely it represents a fundamental system change become a mass-market product? What justifi- cation is there—economically as well as eco- 4. E-cars do not need an expensive infra- logically—for consumers to turn to electric structure to succeed vehicles? And how quickly will these vehicles 5. The available e-car technology today is catch on? In this report, Bain & Company looks already “good enough” at the market opportunities, the ecological case for the e-car, the economic feasibility of elec- 6. Battery costs will be at a mass-production trification and the challenges facing the auto- level by 2015 motive industry today. 7. The electrification of the automobile is 1. In 10 years, at the latest, the e-car compelling and inevitable. will be a mass-market product There is no alternative to the e-car A recent worldwide study by Bain & Company demonstrates that customers genuinely want In July 2006, the newly established auto com- e-cars. They are excited by the image, the tech- pany Tesla presented an exclusively electric- 1 The e-mobility era: Winning the race for electric cars nology, the environmental advantages and— four factors will create huge growth potential for those who have already been able to drive for electrification technology before the end one—the sheer driving experience. In addition of this decade—and they present a unique to this customer-led “pull,” the trend toward opportunity for the auto industry. e-mobility is also accelerated by numerous and sustainable “push” factors. First among them In this scenario, we estimate that, by the year is cost. The more battery prices fall to a level 2020, half of all new cars registered worldwide of economic viability while fuel prices rise, the will have an electric drivetrain, even if the majority more economical e-cars become compared with are also likely to be fitted with a combustion conventional vehicles. Second, consumers and engine—either as a backup “range extender” governments in densely populated urban areas or as a full or plug-in hybrid (see Figure 1). eagerly await e-cars as a means to reduce their And 10 percent of all new cars in 2020 will local emissions. Third, national governments be entirely battery-powered e-cars, pure and are trying to meet their climate protection tar- simple. These cars will primarily be used for gets and at the same time promote homegrown daily driving and commuting, and drivers will industry. Finally, car manufacturers must dra- be accustomed to their limitations. For longer trips, consumers will either use another vehicle matically reduce the [CO2 levels their cars emit and, sooner or later, will put their design empha- with greater range or turn to car-sharing or sis on vehicles with electric propulsion. These public transportation. Again, costs will be a Figure 1: By 2020 the electric drivetrain will prevail worldwide 2 The e-mobility era: Winning the race for electric cars major factor. Not only will e-cars offer a good not price sensitive in that by buying an envi- environmental image, but by 2020 they will be ronmentally friendly e-car they can be seen to no more expensive than conventional vehicles— be green (see Figure 2). in fact, their overall cost of ownership will be far cheaper. The example of the Tesla Roadster shows that these early adopters are also motivated by an What about those consumers who cannot man- enthusiasm for technology and by the desire age with the current range of purely battery- to stand out—the same buying criteria that powered cars that run 100 to 150 kilometers apply to other innovative high-tech products. (about 60 to 90 miles) on a full charge? Or The e-car brings an added awareness that their those who cannot afford a second car? Even drivers are doing something good for the envi- for those traveling longer distances in and ronment. What’s more, this group feels a need from the suburbs, there is still no need to forgo to pioneer ecological trends, and to be seen e-mobility. Their option will be to use a car as doing so. with a smaller battery and an additional com- bustion engine as an emergency power plant. To date, only a few people worldwide have In that way, most driving can still be done in driven the various e-cars that have been built electric mode—which will soon be an essen- as prototypes or in small lots. BMW, for exam- tial requirement to enter the environmentally ple, is conducting field trials in Berlin and Los restricted zones that many cities are planning Angeles with 600 E-Mini prototypes. Daimler to create. Indeed, in the inner core, cities will has 100 Smart Electric Drive cars on the streets offer concessions for e-cars—such as free park- of London and has just started another field ing, use of taxi lanes or exemption from urban- trial with 1,000 new-generation vehicles in center tolls—if they do not restrict entry to various major cities. Tesla customers are test- emission-free vehicles altogether. ing some 1,000 cars—including 150 in Europe, and the feedback from drivers, after a brief 2. E-cars are being launched as today’s period of familiarization, is positive. Their new lifestyle product verdict: “We want to buy these cars. They are already technically good enough; they’re fun An extensive global market survey by Bain in to drive and environmentally friendly.” 2008 and 2009 identified an annual potential of 350,000 e-car customers worldwide, includ- Drivers’ new feelings of satisfaction have little ing 100,000 in Europe alone. Those surveyed to do with conventional premium attributes, said they would buy an electric car even at such as luxury, size or power. On the contrary, twice the price of the comparative conventional with an e-car, the Premium 2.0 consumers city car, used as a baseline in the survey.