SESSION I: Forest Biomass resources for biochar production 1st FOREBIOM Sustainable Use of Biomass Workshop Feedstock Potentials of Biochar to – Global and Regional Aspects– mitigate climate change Florian Kraxner Georg Kindermann, Sylvain Leduc, Stefan Frank, Petr th th Havlík, Eva-Maria Nordström, Hannes Böttcher, Michael 4 -5 April, 2013 Obersteiner and IIASA‘s ESM Team Austrian Academy of Sciences Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) THE STATUS-QUO GLOBAL PROJECTIONS – POTENTIALS AND SOURCES EXAMPLE: BIOMASS FOR BIOENERGY Post 2012 Carbon Management Global Future Energy Portfolios, 2000 – 2100 Source: modified after Obersteiner et al., 2007 Cumulative biomass production (EJ/grid) for bioenergy between 2000 and 2100 at the energy price supplied by MESSAGE based on the revised IPCC SRES A2r scenario (country investment risk excluded). Source: Rokityanskiy et al. 2006 p ( ) Source: IIASA, G4M (2008) Forest Management Certification (Potentials) Certified area relative to managed forest area by countries Kraxner et al., 2008 Source: compiled from FAO 2005, 2001; CIESIN 2007, ATFS 2008; FSC 2008; PEFC 2008. GLOBIOM Global Biosphere Management Model www.globiom.org Exogenous drivers Demand Population growth, economic growth Wood products Food Bioenergy PROCESS OPTIMIZATIO 50 regions Primary wood Crops Partial equilibriumN model SUPPLY products Max. CSPS PX5 ) 5 7 . 120 0 soto pred W B g 100 l and m pred k / RUMINANT G4M g ( EPIC shem pred s e k 80 kaitho pred a t n i Biophysical manyuchi pred d 60 e t c Kariuki pred i d e r 40 Euclides pred p models j and h pred 40 60 80 100 120 140 l and f pred observed intakes (g/kg BW0.75) fall pred GLOBIOM - Supply chain Wood products Natural Forests Sawn wood Pulp Wood Processing Bioenergy Bioethanol Managed Forests Biodiesel Methanol Heat Short Rotation Tree Electricity Bioenergy- Biogas Plantations Processing Crops Corn Cropland Wheat Cassava Potatoes LAND USE USE CHANGE LAND Rapeseed etc… Livestock Grassland Feeding Livestock products Beef Lamb Pork Poultry Other natural land Eggs Milk World partitioned in 52 regions 28 regions represented on the map + Sub-saharan Africa split in Western Africa, Eastern Africa and Southern Africa (Congo Basin and South Africa already separated) 10 Global BE Feedstock Scenarios – Definitions & Objectives Objectives: a) to achieve a global perspective using an integrated modeling approach; b) to frame the boundaries for lower scale assessments; and c) to identify potential trade-offs to be considered in future research. Zero Net Deforestation and Degradation (ZNDD) means no net forest loss through deforestation and no net decline in forest quality through degradation. Scenario name Description BAU ”Business as usual”: Projection of future development in line with historical trends BE2010 As BAU but the production of bioenergy fixed at the level in 2010 BEPlus Projection of bioenergy demand by 2050 as in the 100 per cent renewable energy vision by the Ecofys Energy Model BEPlusRED As BEPlus but with target ”no net deforestation” (RED=Reducing Emissons from Deforestation) BiodivRED Stricter biodiversity protection combined with target ‘no net deforestation’ Land Use Change – Effect of Adding BE, Biodiv & RED – rel to BAU Cumulative land-use change and net forest cover change (managed + unmanaged forest area) caused by additional bioenergy production under the BiodivRED scenario (compared to the 2010 level of bioenergy production) •Net gain of total forest area due to restriction of deforestation •Protection of biodiversity within pristine and other types at the costs of grassland and savannah (which is mostly located in the southern hemisphere) Regional Effects by Adding BE, Biodiv, RED - Unmanaged Forest rel to BAU Loss of pristine (unmanaged) forest as a proxy for BE production on Biodiversity Cumulative loss of area of Cumulative loss of area of unmanaged forest 2000-2050 in unmanaged forest 2000- different regions under the BAU 2050 in different regions scenario under the BEPlus RED scenario •most of the loss of unmanaged forest •the loss of unmanaged forest is not takes place in the tropical areas of South only considerably smaller but also America, Africa and Asia more evenly distributed from a global perspective GHG Emissions by Scenarios GHG emissions from total land use 2000- 2050 under the different scenarios •Under the BE2010 scenario, the bioenergy use is small compared to the other scenarios, and the GHG emissions are the highest, 8,091 Mt CO2/year. The GHG emissions are lower under the BAU and BEPlus scenarios, where the bioenergy use is more extensive. •Lowest GHG emissions can be achieved under the RED scenarios Agricultural Water Demand by Scenarios Water consumption for agriculture 2000- 2050 under the different scenarios •All scenarios show increased demand •Lowest restriction on forest and biodiversity conservation show less water need •Higher restriction implies less land available for eg food production = intensification EUROPE Case study on Europe IIASA’s BeWhere Model www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere ?? how much of the EU20-20-20 targets (in terms of renewable energy from biomass) can be reached with forest biomass only ?? ASSUMPTIONS • only CHP • only 100 MW plants Scenarios under EU 20-20-20 targets • 44.6 Mtoe in 1990; 2.68% of total energy production • 332.4 Mtoe of biomass and waste in 2020; 20% of total share of renewable energy 350 300 Datenr… 250 200 150 100 50 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Kraxner et al, 2010 Forest biomass share: 206 Mtoe (~62% of the 20-20-20 target) •552 plants total •278 CHP plants WITH CCS •274 CHP plants without CCS Can reach 62% of total 20- 20-20 target with sustainable (!) forest biomass only (not including trade!) Source: Kraxner et al, 2010 BIOFUEL – SUSTAINABILITY AGRICULTURE Introduction Renewable Energy Directive (RED) – Ambitious bioenergy targets EU biofuel demand in PJ 2010 2020 Ethanol 109.0 285.7 Biodiesel 436.9 881.2 2nd generation 0 30.6 • Sustainability?? Sustainability criteria – Article 17.2: GHG emission saving from the use of biofuels and bioliquids shall be at least 50% – Article 17.3: Biofuels and bioliquids shall not be made from raw material obtained from land with high biodiversity value • highly biodiverse primary forests • protected areas • highly biodiverse grassland – Article 17.4: Biofuels and bioliquids shall not be made from raw material obtained from land with high carbon stocks • wetlands • continuously forested areas – Article 17.5: Biofuels and bioliquids shall not be made from raw material obtained from peatland GLOBIOM Results – sustainable production Share of Baseline production in 2020 that is compliant with individual or combined EU- RED criteria. DEF = no deforestation, BIO = biodiversity conservation, MIT = climate mitigation DEF BIO MIT DEF+BIO DEF+BIO+MIT Corn 97% 93% 52% 90% 50% Sugar cane 96% 90% 93% 87% 84% Wheat 99% 94% 56% 93% 55% Palm oil 100% 97% 100% 97% 97% Soybean 99% 97% 93% 96% 90% Rapeseed 100% 95% 81% 95% 78% Source: IIASA, Frank et al. (2012) Results – sustainable production • Majority of production classified “sustainable” – Cropland areas directly affected from land use change are small !!!! – No ILUC taken into account in RED methodology – Accounting of emissions to by-products Results – sustainable production Share of “sustainable” production potential per region and feedstock compared to total European biofuel demand in 2020. Corn Wheat Sugar cane Rapeseed Soybean Palm oil Total EU27 33% 63% 0% 25% 0% 0% 120% Middle East and North 15% 15% 0% 0% 1% 0% 31% Africa Subsaharan Africa 6% 3% 10% 0% 0% 4% 23% Pacific 0% 9% 10% 9% 0% 0% 28% Former Soviet Union 0% 62% 0% 1% 0% 0% 63% China 0% 2% 9% 25% 13% 0% 49% South East Asia 2% 55% 111% 5% 0% 77% 250% Latin America 29% 10% 80% 0% 39% 3% 162% Canada 5% 0% 0% 26% 0% 0% 31% USA 246% 54% 7% 0% 45% 0% 352% World 337% 274% 228% 91% 98% 84% 1111% Source: IIASA, Frank et al. (2012) Results – sustainable production • “Sustainable” production could provide more than 10 times the EU biofuel demand • Large potentials for bioethanol – Corn – US – Sugar cane – Brazil • Smaller potentials for biodiesel – Palm oil - South East Asia – Soybean – US and Brazil SUMMARIZING THOUGHTS Potential for biomass (use) globally and in Europe is high ? Where does it come from (trade?) ? How is it produced ? What share of it is used (thinning/waste etc…) ? Co-benefits (sequestration/balanced or neg. emissions…) ? System boundaries ? Definition of Sustainability ? Land use change and INDIRECT land use change ? Competition for land and for resources (by sector etc.) ? Integrated assessment ? How can we promote it/communication/do joint research Contact Florian Kraxner Ecosystem Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA Laxenburg, Austria [email protected] http://www.iiasa.ac.at .