Contact with Alien Civilizations Contact with Alien Civilizations Our Hopes and Fears about Encountering Extraterrestrials Michael A.G. Michaud COPERNICUS BOOKS An Imprint of Springer Science+Business Media © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Published in the United States by Copernicus Books, an imprint of Springer Science+Business Media. Copernicus Books Springer Science+Business Media 233 Spring Street New York, NY 10013 www.springer.com Library of Congress Control Number: 2006923105 Manufactured in the United States of America. Printed on acid-free paper. 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ISBN-10: 0-387-28598-9 ISBN-13: 978-0-387-28598-6 The considerations of the intelligent always include both benefi t and harm. —Sun Tzu, fi fth century B.C. Contents INTRODUCTION . 1 Hopes and Fears . 3 Searching . 3 Consequences . 5 Before and After 1960 . 7 The Book . 8 An Apology . 8 A BELIEF IN OTHER MINDS . 9 An Ancient Idea . 9 The Closed Universe . 11 Copernicanism . 13 The Triumph of Observation . 14 Fictional Aliens . 15 An Impersonal Universe . 17 Evolution and Sharpened Questions . 19 Lowell, and Alien Invaders . 20 Expansion and Skepticism . 22 Ubiquitous Life . 24 A NEW ERA . 25 Searching for Life . 25 Disappointment and Revival . 26 A Metadiscipline . 28 Panspermia . 29 The Mars Rock . 30 Was Arrhenius Right After All? . 31 SEARCHING FOR INTELLIGENCE . 33 Radio Days . 33 From Russia with Theories . 36 American Initiatives . 36 vii viii Contents Privatizing SETI . 40 Other Wavelengths, Other Technologies . 44 Above the Clouds . 45 Looking for the Astroengineers . 46 Exotic Means . 48 SENDING OUR OWN SIGNALS . 49 Active SETI . 49 The Arecibo Blast . 50 Is This Research? . 52 PROBABILITIES . 54 Probability and Analogy . 54 The Drake Equation . 55 Being Trendy . 57 PROBABILITIES: THE ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS . 58 Stars . 58 Planets . 60 Habitable Zones . 67 PROBABILITIES: LIFE . 68 Miracle, Rare Accident, or Probable Event? . 68 Chancists Versus Convergionists . 70 Teleology and Self-Organization . 73 Gaia and Her Sisters . 74 Extremophiles and Dual Biospheres . 75 PROBABILITIES: INTELLIGENCE . 77 Inevitable, or a Fluke? . 77 Social Animals . 79 How Brains Evolve, or Don’t . 80 The Debate Goes on . 81 Our Intelligent Companions . 82 Dolphins . 83 Brother Apes . 85 Future Minds . 87 PROBABILITIES: CIVILIZATION, TECHNOLOGY, AND SCIENCE . 89 Civilization . 89 Technology and Science . 91 PROBABILITIES: LONGEVITY . 94 How Long Do Technological Civilizations Live? . 94 The Shadow of the Bomb . 95 Contents ix Other Means of Self-destruction . 96 Threatening Science . 97 Hints of Optimism . 99 Fear of Machines . 100 Statistics . 102 Extraterrestrial Terminators . 103 Black Clouds, Dark Planets, Bursting Stars . 106 A Growing Sun . 109 THE DRAKE EQUATION, TAKE TWO . 111 SHOULD WE CONTINUE THE SEARCH? . 113 Premature Opinions . 113 Patience . 115 What Can We Conclude? . 116 How Much Is Enough? . 117 Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Serendipity . 119 The Consequences of Searching . 120 DIRECT CONTACT . 122 Starfl ight . 122 Assumptions . 123 Starships of the Mind . ..