1 2 TTTaaabbbllleee ooofff CCCooonnnttteeennntttsss Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................3 Introduction............................................................................................................................8 1. Economic and Power Situation.........................................................................................11 1.1 2002-2006 National Development Plan – Toward a Community State .....................11 1.2 ECONOMIC INDICATORS.............................................................................................12 1.2.1 Economic growth.....................................................................................................12 1.2.2 Unemployment Rate ...............................................................................................14 1.2.3 Devaluation Rate .....................................................................................................15 1.2.4 Foreign Debt ............................................................................................................15 2. Diagnotics .........................................................................................................................18 2.1 INSTALLED CAPACITY............................................................................................18 2.1.1 Availability of electricity generating plants.............................................................18 2.1.2 Availability of hydric resources................................................................................18 2.1.3 Generation of electric energy..................................................................................19 2.1.3.1 Hydraulic Plants....................................................................................................20 2.1.3.2 Natural Gas ...........................................................................................................21 2.1.3.3 Coal .......................................................................................................................21 2.2.1 Description of the National Transmission System ..................................................22 2.2.2 Expansion of the National Transmission System.....................................................22 2.2.3 NTS regulated income .............................................................................................25 2.3 DISTRIBUTION – COMMERCIALIZATION OF ELECTRIC ENERGY .................................26 2.4 EVOLUTION OF ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND IN 2003 ................................................32 3. Forecast Demand for Electric Energy and Power.............................................................36 3. Forecast Demand for Electric Energy and Power.............................................................38 3.1 METHODOLOGY..........................................................................................................38 3.2 MARCH 2004 ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................38 3.2.1 GDP ..........................................................................................................................38 3.2.2 Loss of Electric Energy in NTS..................................................................................39 3.2.3 Loss of Electric Energy in the distribution system...................................................39 Table 3-4 ...............................................................................................................................41 4. Availability of Resources and Pricing forecast..................................................................43 4. Availability of Resources and Pricing forecast..................................................................44 4.1 AVAILABILITY OF RESOURCES 4.1.1 Coal....................................................................44 4.1.2 Natural Gas .............................................................................................................. 44 4.2 PRICING FORECAST.....................................................................................................44 4.2.1 Coal ..........................................................................................................................44 3 4.2.2 Natural Gas .............................................................................................................. 46 4.2.2.1 Highest price of natural gas delivered at the entrance gates to transportation systems. ............................................................................................................................46 4.2.2.2 Highest price of natural gas delivered at the entrance gates to transportation systems .............................................................................................................................48 5. Alternatives and Strategies toward an Expansion of Energy Generation ........................50 5. Alternatives and Strategies toward an Expansion of Energy Generation ........................52 5.1 GENERATION ANALYSES ASSUMPTIONS ....................................................................52 5.1.1 Colombian Case .......................................................................................................52 5.1.2 Ecuadorian Case ......................................................................................................53 5.1.3 Panamanian Case.....................................................................................................53 5.2 PROJECTS TO EXPAND GENERATION IN COLOMBIA ..................................................53 5.3 PROJECTS TO EXPAND GENERATION IN ECUADOR ....................................................58 5.4 PROJECTS TO EXPAND GENERATION IN PANAMÁ .....................................................60 5.5 GENERATION REFERENCE COSTS................................................................................60 5.6 STATUS OF ENERGY GENERATION IN COLOMBIA IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM..61 5.7 SHORT TERM ALTERNATIVES......................................................................................62 5.7.1 ST Alternative – 1.....................................................................................................62 5.7.2 ST Alternative – 2.....................................................................................................62 5.7.3 ST Alternative – 3.....................................................................................................63 5.7.4 Reliability in the short term.....................................................................................63 5.8 LONG TERM STRATEGIES............................................................................................64 5.8.1 Long Term Strategy LT-1..........................................................................................64 5.8.2 Long Term Strategy LT – 2 .......................................................................................64 5.8.3 Long Term Strategy LT – 3 .......................................................................................64 5.8.4 Reliability in the long term ......................................................................................65 5.9 MARGINAL COST OF ENERGY IN THE SHORT TERM AND IN THE LONG TERM ..........66 5.10 ENERGY EXCHANGES ................................................................................................66 5.11 LONG TERM SENSITIVITY ..........................................................................................67 5.11.1Sensitivity Case 1 – S1 ............................................................................................67 5.11.2 Sensitivity Case 2 – S2............................................................................................68 5.11.3 Sensitivity Case 3 – S3............................................................................................68 Chart 5-4. Marginal cost in sensitivity cases US$/MWh ..................................................69 5.11.4 Summary................................................................................................................69 5.12 2014-2018 ENERGY GENERATION PERSPECTIVE.....................................................70 5.13 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................................70 6. Expansion of the Transmission System ............................................................................74 6.1 PLAN REVIEW ANALYSIS APPROACH ..........................................................................74 6.2 BASIC INFORMATION..................................................................................................74 6.3.1 Analysis of Bogotá Area...........................................................................................77 6.3.2 Analysis of North Eastern Area................................................................................78 6.3.3 Analysis of CQR (Caldas – Quindío – Risaralda) Area ..............................................78 4 6.3.4 Analysis of EEPPM Area...........................................................................................79 6.3.5 Analysis of EPSA Area ..............................................................................................79 6.3.6 Analysis of Tolima-Huila-Caquetá Area ..................................................................79 6.3.7 Analysis of Cauca