AF91 AF-91 Page 1 PROGRESS REPORT PROJECT NUMBER: AIACC AF_91 PROJECT TITLE: CAPACITY BUILDING TO EVALUATE AND ADAPT TO CLIMTE CHANGE- INDUCED VULNERABILITY TO MALARIA AND CHOLERA IN THE LAKE VICTORIA REGION PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: SHEM O. WANDIGA SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS: GLOBAL SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS, RESEARCH AND TRAINING (START), THIRD WORLD ACADEMY SCIENCES (TWAS), UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME (UNEP) A. SUMMARY: The project activities started with a Science Planning and Coordination Workshop. The workshop reviewed the theoretical and practical aspects of the project, taking into consideration the suggestions of the technical committee, and agreed on administrative and set out a research agenda. The project has successfully recruited the full complement of postgraduate students (3 PhD and 1 Masters) and research assistants. It has trained them in questionnaire design, data collection and entry. We have successfully undertaken primary data collection using the questionnaire in all the three countries augmented with key informant interviews and focus group discussions which are still on going. Data entry is currently going on and some preliminary analysis has been done for the Kenyan data. Secondary data on climate, hydrology, health and socio-economic aspects is ongoing and almost complete. Project methodologies have been elaborated and have been approved by AIACC. This elaboration includes additional analysis for climatic variables, expansion of variables for assessing vulnerability, specifying the tools and models for risk analysis. Contacts have also been made with national government officials as well as the UNFCC 1 AF91 communication contact persons. Lastly, National Planning Workshop for Kenya has been held, Tanzania and Uganda workshops are due to be held. B. TASKS PERFORMED AND OUTPUTS: I. Meetings 1.1 Science Planning and Coordination Workshop (See Output 1 for details) A Science and Planning Project Coordination meeting for all fourteen (14) project participants initiating project activities and research agenda was held on 2nd to 3rd September 2002 at Sunset Hotel, Kisumu City. The outputs of the workshop were: · Responded to the queries in the proposal that had been raised by the technical committee members regarding the use of the MARA and GCM models and the relationships between climate variability and incidences malaria and cholera · Revision of Workplan with additional explanatory notes on specific activities · Set parameters for site selection and sampling procedure in the three countries · Acquisition of climate and hydrological data to be handled centrally by the Kenyan team from the Drought Monitoring Center - Nairobi. · Agreed on techniques for primary and secondary data · Established guidelines for the questionnaire · Set administrative procedures 1.2 Kenyan National Planning and Coordination Meeting (See Output 2 for details) A National and Planning Coordination Meeting was held on 23rd to 24th January 2003 at Utalii Hotel, Nairobi City to bring together the Kenyan research team and representatives from the Kenya government including the UNFCC communication contact person. The outputs of the meeting were: · Presentation of progress reports on data collection and preliminary analyses on climate, hydrology, health and socio-economic aspects by the principal researchers and postgraduate students · Discussion and agreement on data analysis tools for climate and its relation to health parameters · Identification of indicators for vulnerability and adaptation measures for creating scenarios · Critique of the collected data and identification of the gaps · Date of second phase of fieldwork set · Allocation of task for research analysis II Training A Training Workshop was held for post-graduate students and research assistants from all the three countries at the Kenya Medical Research Institute in Kisumu City from the 14th -20th October, 2002. This was conducted by Dr. Andrew Githeko. The training sought to equip them with data collection techniques, sampling procedures, use of GPS and data analysis programmes as well as practical field experience. 2 AF91 III Data Collection 1.1 Secondary Data Collection (See Output 3 for details) Rainfall data (daily) and temperature data (daily Tmax, daily Tmin), and daily records for hydrological data have been collected for Kenya. Similar data for Uganda and Tanzania is being collected. Socio-economic and health data for Kenya has been collected covering the following parameters for 1995-2000: Ø Distribution of population by sex, households & district Ø Percentage distribution of household head by sex and district Ø Distribution of population by marital status and district Ø Distribution of household headship by gender and district Ø Distribution of total population and density by districts and census years Ø Distribution of population by age, sex and district Ø Number of households by district Ø Household Incomes Ø Mean monthly household non-agricultural income by district Ø Mean monthly household income from sale of crops by district Ø Mean monthly household income from sale of livestock, assets, land and rent by district Ø Summary of mean monthly household income from different sources by district Ø Mean monthly household food expenditure (inclusive of own consumption) by broad expenditure categories by district Ø Percentage share of mean monthly household expenditure by broad expenditure categories by district Ø Annual per capital incomes and expenditure by district Ø Distribution of expenditure patterns on food and non-food by district Ø Distribution of mean expenditures on health by district Ø Mean monthly expenditure on cooking and lighting fuel Ø Distribution of type of toilets used by households Ø Percentage distribution of households by access to sanitation, type of toilet by district Ø Percentage distribution of households with access to safe sanitation Ø Distribution of households’ main source of drinking water during dry season in % Ø Distribution of households main source of drinking water during wet season in % Ø Distribution of nutrition status (% Stunted and Wasted children) indicators in 1982, 1987, 1994 & 2000 by district Ø Distribution of time (minutes) taken to reach the nearest health facility in % by region Ø Distribution of time (minutes) taken to reach nearest qualified doctor’s office in % Ø Population distribution and number of Hospital beds per 1000 population by district Ø Number of health facilities (Hospitals Health centres Dispensaries Maternity and nursing homes/clinics by district 3 AF91 So far secondary data collection in Uganda includes the following: Ø Mulago hospital - national referal hospital Ø Mengo hospital - Protestant founded hospital Ø Nsambya hospital - Catholic founded hospital Ø Old Kampala hospital - Islamic founded hospital Ø Ministry of Health Ø Institute of Public Health Ø Centre for Disease Control Ø National Health Research Council Ø Government Chemist Ø National Drug Authority Ø Makerere University Ø National Environment Management Authority Ø UNICEF Ø WHO Ø Commercial Market Strategies (for bed nets) Ø Quality Chemicals (for bed nets) 1.2 Primary Data Collection Fieldwork has been carried out in all the three countries using standardised questionnaires, key informant interviews and focus group discussions (Table 1). Table 1: Primary Data Collection Summary Kenya Uganda Tanzania Fieldwork December 2002 December/January November/December 2002 Phase 2002/2003 Sites of Data Kisumu (cholera) and Kabale (malaria) and Bugarama (malaria) and collection Kericho (malaria) Gaba (Cholera) Chato (cholera) Sample size 301 households 300 households 300 households Data entry Completed in SPSS and Ongoing in SPSS and Ongoing in SPSS and Epi- Epi-Info Epi-Info Info Data Analysis Preliminary frequencies Data entry not yet Data entry not yet complete for socio-economic and complete health data (See Output 4 for preliminary analysis) IV Administrative Outputs Project funds were received on 24th September 2002 following which the following activities have been undertaken: (i) Disbursement of funds to Tanzanian and Ugandan Principal Researchers (ii) Recruitment of research assistants and postgraduate student (iii) Procurement of computers and cameras (iv) Organisation of workshops and meetings C. DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED 4 AF91 The team has appreciated the need for multi-disciplinary and multi-country research coordination. This makes the pace of work sometimes slow. One of the issues raised by the technical committee was on modelling, in order to solve this we incorporated Prof. Francis Mutua who is a modeller and has given useful inputs towards this end. The secondary data collection revealed that there are gaps in the Uganda climate data, particularly from 1972 to 1978 because of the civil strife experienced then. There are data problems in Kericho data, particularly for 1948 and in the 1980s, due to human error at the data entry level. The population census data will need to be digitalised because the available data from Central Bureau of Statistics (Kenya) is not in digitalized form, however there are problems because this data was not geo-referenced. Further, there is need to geo-reference all GPS readings, thus slowing down the data analysis process. D. We have contacted the UNFCCC contact persons as well as Ministry of Health personnel and have established a working rapport. E. TASKS TO BE PERFORMED IN THE NEXT EIGHT MONTHS The following tasks will be undertaken in the next eight months: 1. Data Collection and Analysis: