N O T I C E THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED FROM MICROFICHE. ALTHOUGH IT IS RECOGNIZED THAT CERTAIN PORTIONS ARE ILLEGIBLE, IT IS BEING RELEASED IN THE INTEREST OF MAKING AVAILABLE AS MUCH INFORMATION AS POSSIBLE 6E0-2254E (NASA-Ca-159547) THE 18/30 Ghz FllLC COnlUNICAIlCNS SYSTFN SEOV IC t EEMANC ASSEFSHENI. VCLUNE 2: lAlh 1EL4l (Ilesteru Unclas Union Telegraph CO.) 328 p HC ~15/nl~01 CSLL 17E G3/3i 47363 clestern union 15/30 GHz FIXED COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM SERVICE DEMAND ASSESSMENT BY f. CABRISZESKI. P. REINER. J. ROGERS AND W TERBO WESTERN UNION TELEGRAPH COMPANY prepared tor NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION NASA LEWIS RESEARFH CENTER NAS-3- ' 1357 VOLUME II -- RESULTS I. Reprt No. 2. Gomnmmt Amuion No. 3. Recipient's trtalog No. CR 159547 Vol . 11. Ualn Text 4. Tttlc and ndbt~tle 6. Report Date 18/30 GHZ PIXED COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM SERVICE DEMAND July , 1979 ASSESSMENT 6. Performing Orgnnizrtion Code 7. Author(s) 8. Pwforming Orgnization R.port No. T. Gabriszerki, P. Reiner, J. Rogers, W. Terbo . 10. Work Unit No. 9. Fwfwming Orgmiution N-mmd Ad6an Western Union Telegraph Company 1 Lake Street 11. Contract or Grant No. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 NAS-3- 'j 1357 -5- - 13. Type of Repon r.id Per:od Cowed 12. Qmnoring WyN8m md Address Contx actor Report National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lewis Research Center 14. Sponsoring AQUICV Cod Cleveland, Ohio 44135 15. Supplementary Not- Project Manager, Steven M. Stevenson Communications and Applications ~ivision 16. Abstract This study forecasts the total demand for communications services, and satellite transmission services at the 4/6 GHz,12/14 GHz and 18/30 GHz fre- quencies. The services are voice, video and data services. Traffic demand, by service, is distributed by geographical regions, population density and distance between serving points. Further distribution of traffic is made among four major end user groups: Business, Government, Institutions and private individuals. A traffic demand analysis is performed on a typical metropolitan city to examine seruice distribution trends. The projected cost of C and Ku band satellite systems are compared on an individual service basis to projected terrestrial rates. Sep- aration of traffic between transmission systems, including 1 '30 GHz systems, 1s based on cost, user, and technical considerations. 17. Key Word (Suggested by Authw(s) I 18. Distribution Statement Communications Services, Baseline Forecast, Market Determinant Factors, Parametric Cost Model, Net Addressable Unclassified .Market, Trunking Earth Stations. 19. Security Clauif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this -1 21. NO. of P- 22. Price' Unclassified unclassified 310 I ' For sale by the Nalional Technical Information Service, Sprinefield. Virg~nia 22161 NASA-C-168 (Rev 10-75) TABLE OF CONTENTS TITLE -PAGE Introduction and Sumnary Introduction Methodology and Approach Observations Report Organi zation I SECTION 1 Task 1 Literature Survey 1.o Statement of Work Introduction Met hod01ogy Source Val idati on Task Fulfillment SECTION 2 Demand Forecasts for Telecomnuni cat1on Service for 1980-2000 Task 2.A Telecommunication Service Demand Statement of Work Introduction Method01ogy bnalysi s and Results , Data Category Analysis and Results, Voice Category Analysis and Results, Video Category Consolidated Results and Conclusions Task 2.8 Distance Distribution of Traffic Task 2.C Traffic Volume as a Function of SMSA Size Task 2.0 Geographical Distribution of Traffic Volumes Task 2.E Sensitivity of Service Demand to Variations in Service Cost r SECTION 3 Task 3 User Category Profile Task 3.A User Categories Task 3.8 Relative Size of Each User Task 3.C Demographics of User Categories SECTION 4 Task 4 Metropolitan Area Study 1.'j Statement of Work 2.0 Introduction 3.0 Selection of Metropolitan Area i , TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'dl SECTION -TITLE Methodol ogy Computer Model ling Effort Presentation of Rerults Significant Conclusions SECTION 5 Task 5 Present and Projected Terrestrial and C and Ku Band Satellite Service Costs Task 5.A Satellite Service Cost Analysis Statement of Work Introduction Methodol ogy Presentation of Results Significant Conclusions Task 5.6 Present and Projected Terrestrial Tails Linking 18/30 GHz Terminals Task 5.C C and Ku Band Satellite Service V 01 ume SECTION 6 Task 6 18/30 6Hz Comuni cations Service Demand Forecasts Task 6.A Service Demand as a Function of Re1 iabi !i ty Task 6.0.1 Price as a Function of Reliability Task 6.8.2 Price as a Function of Non-Real Time Delivery Task 6.C 18/30 GHz Service Demand Forecast Statement of Work Introduction Methodol ogy Presentation of Results, Voice Servlces Presentation of Results, Video Services Presentation of Results, Data Services Consolidated Results and Conclusions SECTION 7 General Study Observations iv LIST OF FIGURES -FIGURE -TITLE -PAGE Study Task Relationships Market Research Activity Flow Section 1 NASA 18/30 GHz Market Research Study 11 1 ustrative Source Section 2 Net Long Haul Traffic Determination 27 Market Distribution Model 30 Data Service Category (21) 3 3 Market Determinant Factors (Example) 47 Cross Impact Interrelationships 49 Net Long Haul Traffic Forecasts Data Services 54 (Terabits Per Year) Net Long Haul Traffic Forecasts Voice Services 65 (Half Voice Circuits) Television Network 68 Net Long Haul Traffic Forecasts Video Services 74 (Wideband Channels) Net Long Haul Traffic Forecast 77 Traffic Demand/Distri bution - 1990 8 3 TrafficIDistan~eDistribution 86 Traffic Demand/Populati on Densi ty-1990 90 SMSA Population Density and Traffic Volume Weightings 92 Geographical Traffic Regions 9 4 Geographical Dictribution of Traffic Regions-1990 96 TWX Subscriber Elasticity Analysis January-June 30, 1978 106 Section 3 Traffic Volume By User Category-Voi ce Services 122 Traffic Volume By User Category-Data Services 127 Business Traffic Patterns 163 Government Traffic Patterns 164 Institutional Traffic Patterns 165 Private Individuals Traffic Patterns 166 Section 4 Metropoiitan Phoenix: Zip Code Map 186 Common Carrier Microwave and Earth Station Locations 190 in Phoenix LIST OF FIGURES (cont'd) FIGURE TITLE PAGE - 7 - 6 GHz Operational Fixed Band Local Phoenix Traffi c-User Locations Local Phoenix Traffic-User Identified Locations Local Phoenix Traffic-Computer/Terminal Installations Phoenix Telephone Exchange Growth Distribution of Data Transmission Speeds Trend in User Data Transmission Speeds Local Phoenix Traffic-Compost te of Traffic Indicators Section 5 Cus tmr Interface Equi pment Relative Earth Station Costs Versus Time (1980-2000) Sate1 lite Service Cost Dis tribution-Voice Channel Sate1 lite Service Crossover Points (Lowest Cost Alternative for C and Ku Band) 1980-Voice Channel Satellite Service Crossover Points (Lowest Cost Alternative for C and Ku Band) 1980-Medium Speed Data (9.6 Kbps) Sate1 1i te Service Crossover Points (Lowest Cost Alternative for C and Ku Band) 1980-Low Speed Data (300 BPS) Sate1 lite Service Crossover Point (Lowest Cost A1 ternative for C and Ku Band) 1980-High Speed Data (56 ~bps) (Purposely Omi t ted) Block Diagram of Gigi tal Microwave System Fiber Optic Cost Trends Terrestrial End Link Cost Comparisons Per Circuit Mile A1 ternati ve Transmission Costs Net Long Haul Traffic to Net Addressable Satelljte Market Proportions of Net Long Haul Traffic Addressable By C-Band Sate1 1 ite Systems (Equivalent Transponders) Section 6 Activity Flow - 18/30 GHz Service Demand 272 Price Change as a Function of Reliability (High 280 Reliability Demand) Price Versus Service Re1 iabi li ty (Outage Tolerant Demand) 281 Price Change as a Function of Non-Real Time Delivery 285 (Low Re1 iabi 1i ty Demand) Net Long Haul Traffic to Net Addressable Satellite 288 Market - 18/30 GHz Scenarios LlST OF FIGURES (cont'd) F IGURE -TITLE -.PAGE 6-6 Net Addressable 18/30 GHz Satellite Market-Voice Category 293 Applications - Scenario 2 6- 7 Net Addressable 18/30 GHz Sate11 i te Market-Video Category 297 Applications - Scenario 2 6- 8 Net Addressable 18/30 GHz Sate11 i te Market-Data Category 306 Applications - Scenario 2 6- 9 Net Addressable Satellite Market (Equivalent Transponders) 309 Section 7 7- 1 C and Ku Band Sate1 lite Saturatios\ Estimated Years of 31 3 Occurrence LIST OF TABLES -TABLE -TITLE -PAGE SECTION I Scope of Literature Survey Literature Survey - Consultant Sources Literature Survey - Libraries & Research Organizations Literature Survey - Trade Associations Literature Survey - Government Agencies Literature Survey - Journals and Newspapers SECTION 11 LIst of Steps Necessary to Generate Impacted Baseline Forecasts Distribution of Terminal Population by Applicatfon Base1i ne F1:~cast Data Category Reason Event N,?t Included as Determinant Factor Impacted Base1 ;ne Forecast Data Serv ices Category Impacted Basel ine Forecast - Range of Forecasts Net Long Haul Traffic Forecast- Data Category Private Line Circuit Forecasts Message Telephone Service Traffic Message Telephone Service Forecasts Radio Program Transmission Forecast Base1i ne Market Forecast - Voice Services Impacted Base1 ine Market Forecast - Voice Services Net Long Haul Traffic Forecast - Voice Services Base1i ne Market Forecast - Y ideo Service Category Impacted Base1 ine/Long Haul Market Forecast - Video Service Category - Expected Case Comnunications Market Forecasts - Expected Case Sumnary - Years 1980 - 2000 Comnunications Market Forecasts - Expected Case Sumnary - Years 1980 - 2000 - Mbps Mileage Band Categories Trafffc/Distance Di striSution - Voice Services Traffic/Distance