SOCIAL RESEARCH NUMBER: 04/2018 PUBLICATION DATE: 25/01/2018 Valleys Rail Strengthening Final Evaluation: Final Report © Crown Copyright Digital ISBN 978-1-78903-406-6 Valleys Rail Strengthening Final Evaluation: Final Report Stephen Canning – Peter Brett Associates LLP Dr Scott Leitham – Peter Brett Associates LLP Rachel Thomas – Peter Brett Associates LLP Sarah McDonough – Beaufort Research Dr Ian Johnson – Loxley Consultancy Full Research Report: Peter Brett Associates, Beaufort Research, and Loxley Consultancy. (2018). Evaluation of the Valleys Rail Strengthening: Final Report. Cardiff: Welsh Government. GSR report number 04/2018 Available at: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/evaluation-valleys-rail- strengthening-project/?lang=en Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government For further information please contact: Joanne Corke Social Research and Information Division Knowledge and Analytical Services Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Tel: 0300 025 1138 Email: [email protected] Table of Contents List of Tables.......................................................................................................................... 2 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ 3 Glossary ................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 6 2. Policy Review .......................................................................................................... 11 3. Methodology ............................................................................................................ 15 4. Evaluation of the Reopening of the Ebbw Vale Line – Outputs ............................... 17 5. Evaluation of the Reopening of the Ebbw Vale Line – Outcomes ........................... 20 6. Evaluation of the Reopening of the Ebbw Vale Line – Impacts ............................... 25 7. Evaluation of Strengthened Services ...................................................................... 57 8. Views on the Valleys Rail Network (Omnibus Survey) ............................................ 63 9. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 70 References .......................................................................................................................... 73 Annex A: Policy Review ....................................................................................................... 74 Annex B: Research Methodology......................................................................................... 76 Annex C: Ebbw Vale Line User Survey ................................................................................ 83 Annex D: External Marginal Impacts – Estimation ............................................................... 94 Annex E: Stakeholder Consultations .................................................................................... 97 Annex F: Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation Analysis ....................................................... 98 Annex G: Review of ORR station usage for Strengthen Services ...................................... 102 1 List of Tables Table 4.1: Rolling Stock Capacities ..................................................................................... 18 Table 4.2: Train Kilometres .................................................................................................. 18 Table 4.3: Passenger Seat Kilometre Opportunities ............................................................ 18 Table 5.1: Ebbw Vale Line Station Journeys ....................................................................... 20 Table 5.2: Ebbw Vale Line Station Ticket Kilometres........................................................... 21 Table 6.1: Equivalent LENNON Data Days .......................................................................... 26 Table 6.2: Sample Size ........................................................................................................ 26 Table 6.3: Assumptions regarding Annual Journeys ............................................................ 40 Table 6.4: ORR Total Entries & exits 2014/15 ..................................................................... 40 Table 6.5: Estimated Annual Trips associated with the Survey Sample .............................. 41 Table 6.6: Station Annualisation Factors ............................................................................. 41 Table 6.6: Estimated Reduction in Car Kilometres (2015) ................................................... 43 Table 6.7: Marginal External Impacts of Reductions in Car KM (2015) ................................ 44 Table 6.4: Blaenau Gwent CBC Housing Completions 2007-2015 ...................................... 47 Table 6.5: Number of People Travelling to Work by Various Transport Modes 2001-2011 – Ebbw Vale Catchment ............................................................................................. 55 Table 7.1: Percentage Change in Number of People Travelling to Work by Various Transport Modes 2001-2011 – Strengthened Lines ................................................ 61 Table 7.2: Percentage Change in Number of People Travelling to Work by Various Transport Modes 2001-2011 – Non Strengthened Lines......................................... 61 Table D.1: Annual Reduction in Car KMs ............................................................................ 94 Table D.2: Congestion Bandings ......................................................................................... 95 Table D.3: Benefit Calculations ............................................................................................ 96 Table E1: Organisations Consulted ..................................................................................... 97 Table F1: Proportion of Blaenau Gwent’s LSOAs in different Categories of Deprivation ..... 98 Table F2: Proportion of Newport’s LSOAs in different Categories of Deprivation ................ 98 Table F3: Proportion of Caerphilly’s LSOAs in different Categories of Deprivation ............. 99 2 List of Figures Figure 1.1: The Valleys Rail Network ..................................................................................... 7 Figure 3.1: Logic Modelling Approach .................................................................................. 15 Source: Tavistock Institute (2010)........................................................................................ 15 Figure 5.1: Total Number of Entries and Exits on Ebbw Vale Line 2008/09-2013/14........... 22 Figure 5.2: Change in Total Number of Entries and Exits on Ebbw Vale Section 2008/09- 2013/14 ................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 6.1: Origin Station ..................................................................................................... 27 Figure 6.2: Destination Station ............................................................................................. 27 Figure 6.3: Ticket Type ........................................................................................................ 28 Figure 6.4: Journey Purpose ................................................................................................ 29 Figure 6.5: Frequency of Travel ........................................................................................... 30 Figure 6.6: Having a Seat for Today’s Journey by Origin Station......................................... 31 Figure 6.7: Satisfaction with Service .................................................................................... 32 Figure 6.8: What was the main mode of transport that you used for your journey to the train station today? .......................................................................................................... 33 Figure 6.9: How did you make this journey prior to passenger rail services being reintroduced on the Ebbw Vale to Cardiff line? ....................................................... 35 Figure 6.10: Which station did you previously take the train from? ...................................... 36 Figure 6.11: In what ways, if any, have you benefitted from switching from your previous mode of transport to the train? Multiple response question ..................................... 37 Figure 6.12: If passenger rail services had not been reintroduced on the Ebbw Vale to Cardiff line, how would you be making this journey today? ..................................... 38 Figure 6.13: Please tell us how much you agree or disagree with each of these statements ................................................................................................................................ 39 Figure 6.14: Travel to Work Ebbw Vale Line Boundary ....................................................... 54 Figure 7.1: Travel to Work Boundaries ................................................................................ 60 Figure 8.1: How often do you typically use Valleys Rail Line train