2ND NATO MOUNTAIN WARFARE CONGRESS RISK MANAGEMENT NTAIN W OU A R M F O A T R A E N C E E N C T N RE LE OF EXCEL Provided by NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence, Slovenia 2019 NATO MOUNTAIN WARFARE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE Remarks: This publication was created in the follow-up to the 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress held by the NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence (NATO MWCOE), Poljče, Slovenia. The con- tents and interpretations presented in this publication are the responsibility of the authors. This publication is a product of the NATO MW COE. It has been produced to offer recognized ex- pertise and experience at current state of the art to the benefit of the Alliance and partners. Impressum information: Authors: Boštjan Blaznik (SVN, NATO MW COE); Franz Fischer PhD (AUT, Donau Krems University); Reinhold Ramesberger (DEU, NATO MW COE); Mitja Ban (SVN, NATO MW COE); Philipp Reiter (DEU, Extreme Mountaineer); Jaques- Olivier Chevallier (FRA, Groupe Militaire de Haute Mon- tagne); Benjamin Zweifel, PhD, (SUI, Institute of Snow and Avalanche Research SLF), Aanon Clausen (NOR, Winter Warfare School for Cold Weather & COE CWO); Karl Slingerland (USA, North- ern Warfare Training Centre Alaska); Wolfgang Behr (DEU, German Mountain Association); Philipp Weissgraeber, PhD, (DEU, Technical University Darmstadt), Klemen Volontar (SVN, Rescue Asso- ciation SVN; UIMLA); Josže Duhovnik, PhD, (SVN, University Ljubljana), Rafael Kolbl (SVN, NATO MW COE); Miha Rakar (SVN, NATO MW COE); Klaus Burger, PHD, (DEU, Director of District Court), Evi Partholl (DEU, Crisis Intervention Team); Violeta Mesariče (SVN, Military Chaplain), Aleš Centa (SVN, NATO MW COE). Photos and illustrations: NATO MW COE archive, respective authors or open source as indicated. Lectorate: Nataša Pogorevc Published by: NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence, Slovenija Prepared by: LTC Reinhold Ramesberger COPYRIGHT BY NATO MW COE: © All rights reserved by the NATO MW COE. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronical or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the Publisher. Congress Book 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress Table of contents 01 The Basic Idea of the 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress 5 02 Risk Management Theories Framework and Overview 8 03 Risk Management in NATO and Mountain Warfare 23 04 Risk Management in Extreme Situations; Civilian Perspective 37 05 Risk Management in Extreme Situations; Military Perspective 47 06 The Avalanche Bulletin as Best Practice, Avalanche Warning in Switzerland 58 07 The Norwegian Military Approach to Avalanche Risk Management 71 08 The Alaskan Military Approach to Avalanche Risk Management 76 09 The Strategic Approach for Avalanche Risk Management 91 10 A Technological Approach − Avalanche Risk Management with Models: 99 Understanding mechanisms of dry slab avalanches 11 A Technologial Approach to Avalanche Risk Reduction – Triggering 114 an Avalanche by Drone 12 Organized Rescue in Winter Conditions – “Time is Life” 116 13 Military Raster Probing – A Possible System for Organized Rescue in NATO – 126 led Missions 14 Decision Making – On-the-spot Systems for Decision Making to Reduce Avalanche Risk 135 15 Personal responsibility and the duty of care in the basic and advanced training 143 of soldiers, taking into particular consideration the assessment of avalanche risks Law & Risk Management – 16 Crisis Management The Crisis Intervention Team: 158 Psychological first aid in case of serious injury or death 17 Crisis Management – 164 The role of military chaplains in soldier care – “Body, mind and soul” 18 Facts, Figures & Impressions 166 3 Congress Book 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress The Basic Idea of the 2nd NATO 01 Mountain Warfare Congress Author: COL Boštjan Blaznik Summary Colonel Boštjan Blaznik, Director of the NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence (NATO MW COE) officially opened the Congress with a welcome address and gave a state- ment on the idea of the 2nd Mountain Warfare Congress. He mentioned the intention to run this year´s annual congress with selected topics concerning Risk Management in Mountain Warfare in order to enhance the participants´ competence in acting on the basis of knowledge based on science or/and practitioners real-life proven experience. COL Boštjan Blaznik (SVN) Director of NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence The congress began with a wider perspective on Risk Management by addressing Risk Management Theories, and later focused on avalanche Risk Management. Furthermore, also failed Risk Management in the sense of handling a local crisis was highlighted from the point of view of morale and psychological help which enables persons involved to come back to business. We can face a risk through: - Preventing or minimizing by behavior or-/and - Preventing or minimizing by decision. A mix of scientists, persons who develop knowledge or improve it, and practitioners, per- sons who use the knowledge, highlighted the topics from the civilian point of view as well as from the military one, thus providing a broad set of verified knowledge and experience. Also, the technical approach to avalanche Risk Management was stressed in terms of two different approaches from the technological perspective at current state of the art, thus 5 NATO MOUNTAIN WARFARE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE enabling military leaders and deciders to draw conclusions for their own area of responsibility. It was not the intention to present “one-fit-all” solutions, but to provide knowledge which enables individuals to develop or enhance competence for acting in real- life situations. The real life of Mountain Warfare is always risky, and the risks in the morning can be different to those in the afternoon. Military leaders have the responsibil- ity for their soldiers, but also for ac- complishing the job, respectively “Act out of knowledge” mission. One part of this responsibility is the commitment for lifelong learn- ing. This congress offered an opportunity of lifelong learning. Every participant will have the chance to grow if there is the willingness to hear, evaluate or even accept other ap- proaches. The lectures as well as the field presentations provided knowledge and proven experience with the intention to enhance the individual level of competence to judge. The Congress intended to enable the participants to act based on knowledge from the current state of the art instead of going with a gut feeling, as knowledge allows contextual understanding rather than relying on unreflected opinions. 6 Congress Book 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress The Congress offered the opportu- nity to evolve and develop individ- uals, but it was up to each individual to be open and ready to integrate new aspects and points of view into the current personal truism, and then to assimilate and accommodate own knowledge. With this congress book, we invite you to follow us on a journey dur- ing which you will learn about dif- ferent approaches to the topics linked to Risk Management and discussed at the congress. It is everybody´s personal decision whether he/she thinks that some of the contents could be applied to his/her area of responsibility. It is a military truism that many people help to provide information that serves as a basis for a decision, BUT ONE PERSON IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECISION, and particularly in Mountain Warfare the accident and the tactical risk(s) have to be dealt with. The lectures as well as the practical presentations should inspire individuals to think about the offered within their own area of responsibility -, that was hoped for by all the speakers, the presenters as well as the NATO MWCOE. The audience of the congress 7 NATO MOUNTAIN WARFARE CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE Risk Management Theories 02 Framework and Overview Author: Franz Fischer, PhD, (AUT) Summary The lecture addressed the historical development of Risk Management standards in dif- ferent domains. In addition, it focused on some of the most popular Risk Management theories and highlighted the variety of steps inside these theories. Franz Fischer, PhD, (AUT) Teacher and trainer at the University of Vienna Risk Manager at Raiffeisen Computer Science Certifications as Risk Manager: Risk Manager CRMA Risk Manager ONR 49 000 & PRINCE 2 Project Manager IPMA -C PhD in Project Management Theoretical Background in Risk Management Risk Theory originates in the insurance industry - In actuarial science and applied probability ruin theory, mathematical models are used to describe an insurer´s vulnerability to insolvency/ruin. In such models key quanti- ties of interest are the probability of ruin, distribution of surplus immediately prior to ruin and deficit at time of the ruin. - The Cramér–Lundberg model was intro- duced in 1903 by the Swedish actuary Filip Lundberg. - The model describes an insurance com- pany who experiences two opposing cash flows: incoming cash premiums and out- going claims. Premiums arrive a constant 8 Congress Book 2nd NATO Mountain Warfare Congress rate c > 0 from customers and claims arrive according to the Poisson Process with in- tensity λ and are independent and identically distributed non-negative random vari- ables with distribution F and mean μ (they form a compound Poisson Process). Risk in the military industry - “A German fleet does not necessarily have to be strong enough to defeat the Royal Navy to push the UK towards a German-friendly naval - and overall Policy. It is already enough to build a fleet strong enough to make its destruction by Britain a “Pyrrhic Victory”. - “Britain cannot afford to engage in a belligerent confrontation with another Naval Power if, de- spite the numerical and qualitative inferiority of its fleet, it was strong enough to be destroyed by The Royal Navy, for its part, to destroy large parts of it.” - From 1900 onward, when the so-called Admiral von Tirpitz, 1906 Risikoflotte (“risk fleet”–i.e., a deterrent for po- tential attackers) was established under the second navy law, it became obvious that the navy was intended not only for actual defense but also as an alliance asset in time of peace.