Strategic Assessment Assessment Strategic Volume 17 | No. 4 | January 2015 Volume 17 Volume A Game of Thrones: Royal Succession in Saudi Arabia Yoel Guzansky The New Ideological Threat to the GCC: | No. 4 No. Implications for the Qatari-Saudi Rivalry Alexey Khlebnikov | January 2015 Tripoli: A Syrian Heart in a Lebanese Body Omer Einav The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Regional and Human Security Implications Benedetta Berti Are We on the Map? Israel in Jordanian Textbooks Ofir Winter Israel-Azerbaijan: Despite the Constraints, a Special Relationship Gallia Lindenstrauss The Politics of Peace in Israel from 2003 to 2013 Maya Kornberg Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 17 | No. 4 | January 2015 CONTENTS Abstracts | 3 A Game of Thrones: Royal Succession in Saudi Arabia | 7 Yoel Guzansky The New Ideological Threat to the GCC: Implications for the Qatari-Saudi Rivalry | 17 Alexey Khlebnikov Tripoli: A Syrian Heart in a Lebanese Body | 29 Omer Einav The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Regional and Human Security Implications | 41 Benedetta Berti Are We on the Map? Israel in Jordanian Textbooks | 55 Ofir Winter Israel-Azerbaijan: Despite the Constraints, a Special Relationship | 69 Gallia Lindenstrauss The Politics of Peace in Israel from 2003 to 2013 | 81 Maya Kornberg Strategic The purpose of Strategic Assessment is to stimulate and ASSESSMENT enrich the public debate on issues that are, or should be, on Israel’s national security agenda. Strategic Assessment is a quarterly publication comprising policy-oriented articles written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief Udi Dekel Editor Mark A. Heller Associate Editor Judith Rosen Managing Editor Moshe Grundman Editorial Board Udi Dekel, Oded Eran, Moshe Grundman, Yoel Guzansky, Mark A. Heller, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Judith Rosen Editorial Advisory Board Dan Ben-David, Azar Gat, Efraim Halevy, Tamar Hermann, Itamar Rabinovich, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanual Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 6997556 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8942 Abstracts A Game of Thrones: Royal Succession in Saudi Arabia Yoel Guzansky The guidelines for Saudi Arabian royal succession were formulated on the basis of principles bequeathed by Ibn Saud and the monarchy’s unique needs, circumstances, and political structure. These arrangements, first and foremost the transfer of power among members of the same generation, may have had a positive effect on the monarchy’s stability over the years, but they created a critical problem as the pool of potential heirs ages. With the recent move to the generation of Ibn Saud’s grandsons, the struggle for the throne – generally occurring behind the scenes – is becoming one that involves many princes and could have a negative effect on stability in this leading Gulf state. Keywords: Saudi Arabia, regime stability, royal succession The New Ideological Threat to the GCC: Implications for the Qatari-Saudi Rivalry Alexey Khlebnikov The article explores the new ideological threat to the Gulf Cooperation Council that revolves around Qatar-Saudi rivalry and ideological differences. It examines the roots of the threat and the implications for the region through the example of the Arab uprising. The article argues that the Muslim Brotherhood, in its ideology and organizational operations, has become the core issue that challenges the relations within the GCC. The article explores how this intra-Gulf ideological split has affected the respective approaches to the war in Syria, and then puts the issue in the broader regional context of the Sunni-Shia confrontation, the reduced US involvement in the region, and the greater Arab uprising. Keywords: Gulf Cooperation Council, ideological threat, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Gulf security, Muslim Brotherhood Strategic Assessment | Volume 17 | No. 4 | January 2015 3 ABSTRACTS 4 Tripoli: A Syrian Heart in a Lebanese Body Omer Einav This article analyzes the complex challenge embodied in the Lebanese city of Tripoli, where tensions latent in the dual nature of the city have risen to the surface in the wake of the civil war in Syria. Tripoli’s historical connection to Syria clashes with the rules of the game in Lebanon and creates a highly delicate and volatile religious and sectarian dynamic that impacts on the rest of the country. In addition, in light of developments | Volume 17 | No. 4 | January 17 | No. 2015 Volume | in the Middle East, the threat of Salafist Islam – particularly the Islamic State organization – places local events in another context. The October 2014 clashes between Sunnis and Alawites in Tripoli, another link in a long chain of violent events, dramatized the destructive potential in the city. Although to date the violence has subsided, it underscores that Lebanon must contend with concrete dangers presented by the fabric of its society Strategic Assessment Strategic in order to ensure the nation’s stability. Keywords: Tripoli, Lebanon, Syria, Salafist Islam, Alawites The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Regional and Human Security Implications Benedetta Berti With no indication that the bloody civil war in Syria is drawing to a close, the issue of short term emergency assistance and longer term support, integration, or resettlement of the Syrian refugee population represents a monumental challenge. Analyzing the regional refugee crisis, this article provides a general assessment of the situation and outlines the main impending issues that need to be tackled. It examines the short and longer term regional and human security implications of the crisis, emphasizing how current shortcomings in tackling the situation may, in the longer term, reflect negatively on regional security and stability. Keywords: Syrian civil war, refugees, Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Levant, human security, regional security ABSTRACTS 5 Are We on the Map? Israel in Jordanian Textbooks Ofir Winter In 2014, the Jordanian Ministry of Education removed a number of Jordanian study units that encouraged the ethos of struggle against Israel. In an unprecedented step, it also distributed a study guide for teachers and educational booklets that include a map explicitly displaying Israel by name, and it banned the introduction into schools of a book condemning the peace agreement with Jews. This article contends that these measures reflect the long term objective of the Jordanian regime to lessen the focus on the 4 | January 17 | No. 2015 Volume | conflict with Israel in the Jordanian curriculum, based on its understanding of the conflict as a ready hothouse that undermines the stability of the regime and breeds subversion of the Hashemite royal house by religious extremism. On the other hand, the public protests aroused by these new educational measures highlight the tension between the Jordanian regime’s Strategic Assessment Strategic strategic interests and the degree to which it is subject to the restraints of public opinion. Keywords: education, textbooks, Jordan, peace, culture of conflict, Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, radical Islam Israel-Azerbaijan: Despite the Constraints, a Special Relationship Gallia Lindenstrauss Israel and Azerbaijan have enjoyed close diplomatic relations since they were formed in 1992, and these relations have become even tighter in recent years, mainly as a result of the threat posed by Iran to each state. It can be argued that the relations between the two countries are similar to some of Israel’s other special relationships – with Iran in the 1950s and 1960s, with South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s, and with Turkey in the 1990s. This article analyzes the interests of Israel and Azerbaijan in developing the close relationship, and evaluates the degree of stability in the strategic relations. Although the two countries have more than a few interests that encourage continued close relations, these interests must be balanced against pressures on Azerbaijan by its neighbors to cool its relations with Israel, and the degree of stability in the future rule of the Aliyev dynasty. Keywords: Israel, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkey, Nagorno-Karabakh ABSTRACTS 6 The Politics of Peace in Israel from 2003 to 2013 Maya Kornberg This article examines Israeli public opinion on the peace process from 2003 to 2013 through the prism of electoral campaigns. It explores the possible correlation between the focus of political campaigns and Israeli public opinion on the peace process. Using polling data, campaign ads, and interviews with campaign experts and politicians, the article traces a picture of Israeli society over this decade. The findings show that there is a correlation between the emphasis placed on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict | Volume 17 | No. 4 | January 17 | No. 2015 Volume | by political campaigns and the intention of Israeli voters to vote based on this issue. Research reveals a growing disinterest in the conflict among Israelis as it becomes a less immediate concern. Policymakers must find a way to restore the Israeli public’s commitment to the peace process so that the issue will influence their vote in March 2015. Strategic Assessment Strategic Keywords: Electoral campaigns, public opinion, peace process A Game of Thrones: Royal Succession in Saudi Arabia Yoel Guzansky The Formation of the Principles of Succession To a large extent, maintaining regime stability in Saudi Arabia relates to the transition of power among brothers rather than from father to son. It may be that this custom has ensured successors with the requisite experience to manage affairs of state, but it has also reduced the pool of potential heirs, resulting in the possibility that Saudi Arabia’s aging leadership may negatively affect the nation’s stability.