October 1, 2017 3 Cover Story Kurdish referendum Effects of Iraqi Kurdistan referendum reverberate in Iran he sky did not collapse following the Iraqi Kurdish referendum. Gareth Smyth The United States is a regular contributor to The protested and Baghdad Arab Weekly. He was chief ruled out talks over correspondent in Iran for the TKurdish independence; Turkey Financial Times in 2003-07. and Iran carried out military manoeuvres, cancelled flights and tightened border security but there is a wait-and-see interna- tional approach reflecting a fast- moving, unprecedented situation. No one knows how Iraqi Kurdish President Masoud Barzani will act, either in asserting independence or in strengthening the Kurds’ grip on the disputed city and province of Kirkuk. While voting was brisk in some areas — authorities claimed 72% turnout overall — enthusiasm was not universal. “Turnout in Sulaymaniyah wasn’t high, partly because people saw it more as a Barzani project and partly because Beyond containment. Members of Iranian Kurdish peshmerga of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran they lack trust in the Kurdish (KDP-Iran) hold Kurdish flags as they take part in a gathering in the town of Bahirka, north of Erbil, leadership,” said Salam Abdulrah- on September 21. (AFP) man, head of the political science department at the University of worked with Los Angeles producer to express their public support for (PJAK), which, like the Syrian Human Development in Sulay- G2, is beloved by the American the independence referendum… PYD, is affiliated to the Turkey- maniyah. “There were no observ- right and has opened a beauty [and] raise the Kurdish flag to dem- centred Kurdistan Workers’ Party ers at polling stations, which cast salon in Erbil. She starred in the onstrate… that the Kurdish nation (PKK). PJAK has been less active doubt on the fairness of voting. 2014 film “Mardan” directed by in all parts of Kurdistan support militarily in recent years, report- In my view, holding the poll was the Iranian Kurdish director Batin one another.” edly sending fighters to Syria, but wrong and it has not brought Iraqi Ghobadi and the 2015 docudrama This goes beyond the party’s claimed to kill 32 Iranian security Kurdistan closer to independ- “A Flag without a Country,” direct- commitment to a federal Iran, a forces last October after it lost 12 ence.” ed by Ghobadi’s award-winning solution rejected in Iraq by sup- fighters. The referendum, however, may older brother Bahman. porters of independence. A KDPI Neither is there much enthu- reverberate for years as part of a None of which endears her to the statement in mid-September siasm for the Kurdish cause wider surge in Kurdish national- Iranian authorities. Tehran’s oppo- stressed “the Kurds are one na- throughout Iran, although Iranian ism. Just as Sivan Perwer’s song sition to the referendum was partly tion… divided against their will.” President Hassan Rohani promised “Halabja” about the 1988 chemical based on commitment to a unified Mustapha Hijri, the KDPI leader re- to improve Kurdish rights. Iran’s attack stirred the Kurdish cause Iraq but Tehran is wary of ripples cently in Washington, has stressed Kurds are probably a majority in through clandestine Kurdish radio, reaching its own Kurdish popula- “the bravery of our peshmerga three provinces — Kurdistan, Ker- today’s slick videos mix dance tion of 8 million-10 million. forces” in ensuring the survival manshah and Ilam. and music in extolling Kurdish Such cross-border influence of the “Kurdish nation” despite Their motives are suspect to peshmerga fighting the Islamic predates the Iraqi Kurds’ de facto “partition.” many Persians, who make up half State (ISIS). autonomy achieved in 1991 but is Iranian Kurdish peshmerga, Iran’s population, and Azeris, who Most are made in Erbil, capital accelerating with the referendum based in northern Iraq since the are around one-quarter. Both the of Iraqi Kurdistan. Some highlight and Kurdish self-rule in northern early 1980s, are unlikely to change reformist and principlist funda- Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic and north-eastern Syria. Today’s this soon. The KDPI last year mentalist media in Tehran have Party (KDP) and some the Syria- media make containment impos- strengthened its armed sorties into condemned the Iraqi Kurdish refer- based Democratic Union Party sible. Iran having largely ended them endum. The former emphasise the (PYD) but all project a strong Kurd- Photographs and clips of in the 1990s. The KDPI claims the dangers of conflict, especially over ish nationalism. smartphone-toting, pro-referen- death of Islamic Revolutionary Kirkuk; the latter stress Israeli sup- It is hard to see a Helly Luv, the singer who gave a dum demonstrators in Iranian Guards Corps fighters, while Iran port for Kurdish independence. concert in Erbil during the referen- Kurdistan — in Sanadaj, Baneh and claims to have killed dozens of It is hard to see a way forward way forward that dum campaign, famously shot part Mahabad — are rampant on social rebels and has shelled KDPI posi- that does not exacerbate tensions does not exacerbate of the video for her 2015 song “Rev- media. They feature on the website tions in Iraq. between Kurds and others in Iran. olution” within a few kilometres of the Democratic Party of Iranian The Iranian Kurdish parties are This is especially so for the Azeris tensions between of the front line between Kurdish Kurdistan (KDPI), possibly the also weakened by divisions. The and the Lurs, who live to the south forces and ISIS near Mosul. largest opposition group, which KDPI split in 2006. Both parts, of the Kurds. Whatever happens Kurds and others Born Helan Abdulla 28 years urges “the people of eastern Kurd- like the leftist Komala, distrust next, the Kurdish genie is out of in Iran. ago in Urmia, Iran, Helly Luv has istan… [to] take every opportunity the Kurdistan Free Life Party the bottle. Ankara’s opposition to Kurdish autonomy goes beyond oil or referendum he rise of Kurdish flights into the city. Turkish news many in western cities such as thousands of troops into Syria, a nationalism in northern channels have had wall-to-wall Izmir and Istanbul though centred war zone of such complexity and Iraq and elsewhere is a coverage of the referendum fallout, in the south-eastern regions bor- danger that no other country has Stephen Starr precedent that Turkey depicting tanks driving along the dering Iraq and Syria. Therefore, dared do so on a similar scale. will not tolerate, if the border with northern Iraq and growing demands for Kurdish It was not to help unseat Syrian is the author of “Revolt in level of repression it has Turkish and Iraqi soldiers swap- independence worry Turkey more President Bashar Assad or to defeat Syria: Eye-Witness to the Tdoled out to its own Kurds over the ping flags in displays of unity. This than the others. the Islamic State (ISIS), the two Uprising” and has lived in past 40 years is anything to go by. is window dressing in opposition Anyone who has spent time most macabre sides in the conflict, Syria and Turkey since 2007. The September 25 non-binding to what Ankara and Baghdad see in Kurdish-majority regions of but to stop Kurdish forces from “yes” referendum result in Iraqi as an outrageous act of defiance. eastern Turkey in recent years will gaining an upper hand. Kurdistan may see Turkey cut off However, because Turkey and know the depth of Ankara’s hostil- Major security threats in the the Kurds’ pipeline to the Mediter- the KRG both know there is no tak- ity to Kurdish self-determination. region over the past two dec- ranean and seal its border, through ing back a public vote, particularly In 2015 and 2016, almost un- ades — the war in Iraq and the which about 70% of all Kurdistan’s when it is non-binding, Erdogan’s noticed by the outside world, emergence of ISIS — have come imports enter. Around 90% of words warning of a sectarian war Turkey destroyed whole towns and gone but Turkey’s hostility to Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports flow in sound particularly ominous. and neighbourhoods in its south- Kurdish independence is as strong the opposite direction, north into A KRG official, quoted by the east, making homeless more than today as at any time in decades. If Turkey. pro-government Daily Sabah news- 500,000 of its own citizens. Its Kurdistan takes its independence Turkish President Recep Tayyip paper, admitted as much, saying: aim was to root out a few hundred claims further, which its political Erdogan claims the vote has no “We did not expect this much… armed Kurdish militants, the vast leadership claims is inevitable, the legitimacy and warned: “If [presi- This [referendum] has nothing to majority of whom were simply consequences may be far worse. dent of the Iraqi Kurdish region] do with Turkey.” disaffected young men, not the All bets are off on how Ankara Turkey’s hostility Masoud Barzani and the Kurdish The Kurds — between 25 million hardcore Kurdistan Workers’ Party will proceed. Turkey has been Regional Government (KRG) do and 35 million people — comprise (PKK) fighters who have been re- restrained in the wars in Iraq and to Kurdish not go back on this mistake as soon one of the largest ethnic groups sponsible for assassinating Turkish Syria — conflicts that devastated its independence is as as possible, they will go down in in the Middle East and are, by soldiers and police. neighbours — but sharing a border history with the shame of having population, the largest in the world The Kurds of northern Syria are with an independent Kurdish state strong today as at dragged the region into an ethnic without a nation-state.