Volume 6 | Issue 3 | Article ID 2697 | Mar 03, 2008 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus The Japanese Nuclear Power Option: What Price? Arjun Makhijani, Endo Tetsuya The Japanese Nuclear Power Option: What particular, energy-hungry China and India- but Price? also for the region as a whole. In Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere, plans for and Endo Tetsuya and Arjun Makhijani expressions of interest in nuclear energy have been expanding. In the midst of rising oil With the price of oil skyrocketing to more than prices, expectations are growing that nuclear $100 a barrel, many nations including Japan energy will fill the gap between energy demand and the United States, are looking to the and supply. nuclear power option among others. Is nuclear power a viable option in a world of expensive In the area of global warming, the Fourth and polluting fossil fuels? Japan Focus, in the Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental first of a series of articles on energy options Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that centered on renewable options and thethe global temperature will increase by 2.4 to environmental costs of energy options, presents 6.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st the case for nuclear power recently made by century if fossil-fuel dependent economic Endo Tetsuya and a critique of the nuclear growth is maintained. It is now universally option by Arjun Makhijani. recognized that the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a matter of urgency, and necessitates seeking viable, reliable alternative sources of energy. In this sense, Atoms for the Sustainable Future:nuclear energy can be expected to contribute Utilization of Nuclear Energy as a Way to to global efforts to cope with the global Cope with Energy and Environmental warming problem as its carbon dioxide Challenges emissions are much smaller than those of fossil sources. Among major energy sources, nuclear Endo Tetsuya power is one of the most effective in reducing GHG emissions. Nuclear Renaissance Given these circumstances, there has been a resurgence in the worldwide need to promote The world now faces two major challenges for nuclear energy that may be termed the the sustainability of growth: energy security "Nuclear Renaissance." and global warming. Opportunities and Risks According to an estimate by the International Energy Agency, world demand for primary Nuclear energy has two facets. When it is used energy will increase 53% by 2030. Forfor peaceful purposes such as power example, it is predicted that meeting the generation, it can make a contribution to the demand for energy in Asia will pose serious betterment of the quality of life. However, it challenges not only for individual countries -in can also be used for military or criminal 1 6 | 3 | 0 APJ | JF purposes. There are both great opportunities and great risks in expanding the use of nuclear energy. Steam billows from the Mihama nuclear power plant in a 2004 accident Our principal challenge is to establish universal The world has had to live for more than sixty principles for the promotion of nuclear energy years with the serious threat of nuclear to contribute to sustainable growth in the devastation, a threat that is the result of the global economy, to solve global warming huge number of nuclear weapons that could problems, and to meet energy security needs, destroy the earth several times over. Even as in balance with furthering efforts to reduce the this danger continues, we also face rising risks posed by the threats of nuclear nuclear proliferation threats caused by the proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and existing diversion of peaceful nuclear programs to nuclear weapons. We also need to remember military use and withdrawals from international that the safety of nuclear activities has become non-proliferation treaties and agreements, as an increasingly important element in well as the threats of nuclear terrorism and maintaining the credibility and sustainability of thefts of or illicit trade in nuclear materials by nuclear energy activities. non-state actors. Based on such perceptions, a taskforce organized by the Japan Institute of International Affairs submitted on January 9 to Japanese Foreign Minister Komura Masahiko a policy report calling for a 'balanced approach' to nuclear energy, one that would promote nuclear energy while adequately and effectively addressing various nuclear risks. It is our hope that the Japanese government will take heed of our recommendations as it prepares energy and environmental policies for the G8 Summit that it will be hosting this summer in Toyako, Hokkaido. The policy report contains 13 recommendations, ranging from a proposal to reform financial mechanisms for nuclear 2 6 | 3 | 0 APJ | JF projects to disarmament measures. They all effective in terms of reducing CO2 emissions. consider threat reductions and non-Such discrimination against nuclear energy proliferation as indispensable. The rest of this might undermine international efforts to cope essay addresses the recommendationswith global warming. We urge the international concerning the peaceful use of nuclear energy, community to acknowledge that nuclear energy which, if handed wrongly, could undermine would be an effective way to help contain the efforts to make the world safer from nuclear increase of CO2 emissions. We back the threats. creation of a policy mechanism to systematically incorporate the promotion of "Three S's" for the Peaceful andnuclear energy in the efforts to tackle global Environmentally-Friendly Use of Nuclear warming in the new round of negotiations. Energy Nuclear power generation also needs large In promoting nuclear energy under the present initial capital investments and requires long circumstances, it is extremely important for payback periods. Developing countries need to states to take into account: a) security against attract international capital for their nuclear terrorist activities; b) safe operation of nuclear programs. Therefore, the international energy facilities; c) safeguards against nuclear community should offer innovative financial proliferation. We must take a balancedmechanisms that would facilitate private and approach toward strengthening the "Three S's" public investment for the construction of (Safety, Security, and Safeguards) andnuclear reactors. Other existing financial promoting the peaceful use of nuclear energy mechanisms such as World Bank loans and in an appropriate, effective manner. The "Three OECD guidelines for export credit, which S's" would provide a useful conceptualcurrently discriminate against nuclear projects, framework to comprehensively deal with should be made available for nuclear power nuclear risks while pursuing safe and secure projects. It may also be worth examining the nuclear activities. linking of financial support through the mechanisms mentioned above with the In addition, nuclear disarmament should be fulfillment of the "Three S's" guidelines since further promoted. Promoting nuclearthis would contribute to enhancing the safety disarmament would strengthen the norms of and security of nuclear activities as well as non- the international non-proliferation regime, and proliferation. thus it would encourage states to engage in global non-proliferation efforts. We believe Conclusion that, in combination with strengthened transparency, respecting this "Three S's" As mentioned at the outset of this essay, we are concept and sincerely encouraging nuclear facing serious, imminent challenges in energy disarmament are essential in helping nuclear security and global warming. Nuclear energy energy gain universal legitimacy andhas great potential in coping with such confidence. challenges if it is properly introduced and operated. In particular, heightened risks of In the meantime, it is also important to develop nuclear plant accidents, nuclear terrorism, and mechanisms for assisting the development of nuclear proliferation should not be tolerated in nuclear power projects. Currently, there is no exchange for dealing with global warming and incentive or mechanism to facilitate theenergy security concerns. utilization of nuclear energy for environmental purposes, even though nuclear energy is quite Although it is extremely difficult to discover a 3 6 | 3 | 0 APJ | JF panacea that addresses all of these concerns, electricity in good locations of 8 to 12 cents per we believe that it is not impossible, and we kilowatt-hour. Even solar thermal power is 14 have to strive for such a solution for the sake of cents per kilowatt hours today, including some all future generations. That is the very purpose storage of heat for generation after sundown; it of the upcoming G8 Summit. promises to go down to about 10 cents as the industry matures in the next decade and Published as AJISS-Commentary No. 26becomes of a similar size to wind energy. [Association of Japanese Institutes of Strategic Studies] February, 2008. Mr. Endo is quite wrong about the proliferation risk of nuclear power. We need look no farther Endo Tetsuya served as Chairman of the than the debate in Japan itself as to whether it Taskforce on Atoms for the Sustainable Future should become a nuclear weapon state. In organized by The Japan Institute of2002, Ozawa Ichiro, the head of the Liberal International Affairs. This commentary is an Party suggested that if China became too abbreviated version of the recommendations powerful, Japan should consider making issued by the taskforce in January 2008. thousands of nuclear weapons using its civilian materials. The Unacceptable Cost of the Nuclear The proliferation potential of nuclear power Power Option for Japan was recognized as long ago as 1946 by none other than J. Robert Oppenheimer, the Arjun Makhijani Scientific Director of the Manhattan Project. He suggested hiding nuclear weapons intent Mr. Endo, like many in the nuclear industry, is under cover of nuclear power plants in the championing nuclear power as a solution to the event that the U.S. signed a nuclear weapons severe problem of climate change and the convention: concomitant task we face of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Before jumping to nuclear, a cost comparison is “We know very well what we would needed.