2013 Lake-Sumter Transit Development Plan Completed for: Lake County Department of Community Services Sumter County Public Works Division LAKE~SUMTER TRANSIT DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2013 Major Update Prepared for: Lake County Department of Community Services Sumter County Public Works Division By: 101 Southhall Lane, Suite 355 Maitland, FL 32751 (407) 875-8900 In association with: Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Public Involvement ................................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Public Involvement Plan ................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Advisory Committees .................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Upcoming Participation Opportunities ...................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Needs Identified ............................................................................................................................................... 9 3 Existing Services and Service Performance ...................................................................................................... 11 3.1 LakeXpress Fixed Route Service ............................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 Operating Characteristics ....................................................................................................................... 12 3.1.2 Fare Schedule ............................................................................................................................................. 14 3.1.3 Transportation Budget and Operating Performance ....................................................................... 15 3.2 Lake County Connection Paratransit Service ........................................................................................ 17 3.2.1 Transportation Disadvantaged (TD) Program ................................................................................... 17 3.2.2 ADA Complementary Paratransit ........................................................................................................ 20 3.2.3 Lake County Connection Performance Measures ............................................................................ 21 3.3 Lynx Service in Lake County ...................................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Other Transportation Providers in Lake County .................................................................................. 26 3.5 Sumter County Transit ................................................................................................................................ 27 3.6 Lake County Public Transportation Facilities and Vehicles ................................................................. 29 3.6.1 Maintenance Facilities .............................................................................................................................. 29 3.6.2 Park-and-Ride Locations ......................................................................................................................... 29 3.6.3 Shelters ........................................................................................................................................................ 29 3.6.4 Transit Vehicles Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 30 3.6.5 On-Board Technology ............................................................................................................................. 31 3.7 Public Transportation Funding in Lake County ...................................................................................... 31 3.7.1 Funding Sources for Operations and Capital ..................................................................................... 31 3.7.2 National Peer Comparison ..................................................................................................................... 31 3.8 Adjacent Area Providers ............................................................................................................................. 33 4 Situational Appraisal ............................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Population Profile .......................................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Land Use .......................................................................................................................................................... 54 4.2.1 Existing Land Use Profile ......................................................................................................................... 55 4.2.2 Future Land Use ........................................................................................................................................ 58 4.2.3 Major Trip Generators/Activity Centers ............................................................................................ 58 4.3 State and Local Transportation Plans ....................................................................................................... 65 4.4 Organizational Issues .................................................................................................................................... 68 4.5 Public Survey................................................................................................................................................... 68 5 Future Demand for Transit Service ................................................................................................................... 73 5.1 Future Demographics ................................................................................................................................... 73 5.2 Identification of Transit Supportive Population Densities ................................................................... 73 5.3 Use of Existing Paratransit Ridership Data.............................................................................................. 83 5.4 Analysis of Projected Travel Flows ........................................................................................................... 84 5.5 Ridership Forecasting ................................................................................................................................... 85 5.5.1 Elasticity....................................................................................................................................................... 88 Lake~Sumter Transit Development Plan 2013 Major Update 5.5.2 Approach to Ridership Forecasting ...................................................................................................... 88 5.5.3 Current Transit Shares ............................................................................................................................ 89 5.5.4 2012-2023 Growth Factors .................................................................................................................... 89 6 Agency Mission and Goals .................................................................................................................................... 91 7 Alternatives Considered ....................................................................................................................................... 97 7.1 Maintain Existing Fixed Route Services .................................................................................................... 97 7.2 Maintain Other Existing Services ............................................................................................................... 98 7.3 Potential Fixed Route Improvements ....................................................................................................... 98 7.3.1 Restructure Route 1 and Implement Golden Triangle Service on Route 3 ............................... 98 7.3.2 Modify and Extend Route 2 to Fruitland Park ................................................................................ 101 7.3.3 Increase Frequency on Existing LakeXpress Routes ..................................................................... 102 7.3.4 Extend Service Hours into the Evening on Existing LakeXpress Routes ................................. 102 7.3.5 Add Weekend Service on Existing LakeXpress Routes ............................................................... 103 7.3.6 Expand Sumter County Transit Shuttles – Add Tuesday and Thursday Service .................... 103 7.3.7 Expand Sumter County Transit Shuttles – Increase Frequency to Hourly .............................. 103 7.4 Potential New Routes ............................................................................................................................... 103 7.4.1 SR50 Spine Service ................................................................................................................................ 104 7.4.2