Report prepared to support the development of the Transport Strategy for the South East Scenario forecasting technical report tfse.org.uk/transport-strategy Report 4 October 2019 Transport Strategy for the South East: Scenario Forecasting Technical Report Transport for the South East Our ref: 23433704 Client ref: Report 4 October 2019 Transport Strategy for the South East: Scenario Forecasting Technical Report Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Transport for the 28-32 Upper Ground South East London SE1 9PD +44 20 7910 5000 Client ref: www.steergroup.com Our ref: 23433704 Steer has prepared this material for Transport for the South East. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Transport Strategy for the South East: Scenario Forecasting Technical Report | Report Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 The Role of SEELUM ........................................................................................................... 3 2 Building SEELUM: The Data ....................................................................................... 4 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4 Zones .................................................................................................................................. 4 Households and Housing .................................................................................................... 9 Businesses and Business Units ......................................................................................... 14 Ports & Freight.................................................................................................................. 18 Transport .......................................................................................................................... 19 Summary of Zones and Segmentation ............................................................................. 30 3 Calibration .............................................................................................................. 31 Outline of the Process ...................................................................................................... 31 Travel to Work Patterns ................................................................................................... 31 Additional Validation Against NTEM ................................................................................ 38 Stabilise Run ..................................................................................................................... 39 Summary........................................................................................................................... 41 4 Validation Tests ...................................................................................................... 42 Rail .................................................................................................................................... 42 Road Traffic ...................................................................................................................... 44 Bus .................................................................................................................................... 46 References for Chapter 4.................................................................................................. 47 5 Building a Baseline for Future Scenario Tests ........................................................... 48 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 48 Do Minimum Inputs .......................................................................................................... 48 Forecasts of Population and Employment Growth .......................................................... 50 Meeting NTEM Target Growth ......................................................................................... 51 Trend Assumptions ........................................................................................................... 52 6 Scenarios ................................................................................................................ 53 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 53 4 October 2019 Transport Strategy for the South East: Scenario Forecasting Technical Report | Report Scenario Development ..................................................................................................... 54 Scenario Specifications ..................................................................................................... 58 7 Results .................................................................................................................... 63 Transport Impacts ............................................................................................................ 63 Socio-Economic impacts ................................................................................................... 70 Corridor Analysis .............................................................................................................. 72 8 Concluding Remarks ................................................................................................ 96 Figures Figure 1.1: High level overview of the linkages in the model ....................................................... 1 Figure 1.2: High level overview of scenario testing inputs and outputs ...................................... 2 Figure 2.1: The Transport for the South East area (source: transportforthesoutheast.org.uk) ... 4 Figure 2.2: Internal zones ............................................................................................................. 5 Figure 2.3: Internal and external zones ........................................................................................ 6 Figure 2.4: Model sectors ............................................................................................................. 8 Figure 2.5: The Strategic and Major Road Networks and access network in the study area ..... 20 Figure 2.6: The ‘on-network’ links in SEELUM ............................................................................ 21 Figure 2.7: Change in speed multiplier with change in flow/capacity ratio ............................... 24 Figure 2.8: Stations and the SEELUM rail link network .............................................................. 26 Figure 2.9: The Rail Crowding Function ...................................................................................... 27 Figure 2.10: Example of rail trip with access and egress legs ..................................................... 28 Figure 3.1: Illustration of deterrence curves .............................................................................. 33 Figure 6.1: Stakeholder workshops - Importance and uncertainty matrix of key drivers .......... 55 Figure 6.2: Stakeholder workshops – Axes of uncertainty for key drivers ................................. 56 Figure 6.3: Stakeholder workshops – Scenario policy levers. ..................................................... 58 Figure 7.1: Base Case – 2018 to 2050 ......................................................................................... 74 Figure 7.2: London Hub – Base 2050 to Do Something 2050 ..................................................... 75 Figure 7.3: Digital Future – Base 2050 to 2050 DS ..................................................................... 76 Figure 7.4: Our Route to Growth – Base 2050 to Do Something 2050 ...................................... 77 Figure 7.5: Sustainable Future – Base 2050 to Do Something 2050 .......................................... 78 Figure 7.6: Sustainable Route to Growth ................................................................................... 79 4 October 2019 Transport Strategy for the South East: Scenario Forecasting Technical Report | Report Figure 7.7: Base Case – 2050 – V/C Roads .................................................................................. 82 Figure 7.8: London Hub – 2050 – V/C Roads .............................................................................. 83 Figure 7.9: Digital Future – 2050 – V/C Roads ............................................................................ 84 Figure 7.10: Our Route to Growth – 2050 – V/C Roads .............................................................. 85 Figure 7.11: Sustainable Future – 2050 – V/C Roads .................................................................. 86 Figure 7.12: Sustainable Route to Growth – 2050 – V/C Roads ................................................. 87 Figure 7.13: Base Case – 2050 – V/C Rail ...................................................................................