GETTING TO CODESA AN ANALYSIS ON WHY MULTIPARTY NEGOTIATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA BEGAN, 1984-1991 BY ZWELETHU JOLOBE Town Cape Thesis Presentedof for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Department of Political Studies UniversityUNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN MAY 2014 Supervisor: Professor Annette Seegers The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgementTown of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Cape Published by the University ofof Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University Declaration I declare that this thesis is my own unaided work, both in concept and execution, and that apart from the normal guidance from my supervisor, I have received no assistance. It is being submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, at the University of Cape Town. Neither the substance nor any part of the thesis has been submitted in the past, or is being submitted for a degree at this University or at any other university. Zwelethu Jolobe May 2014 ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the pre-negotiation stage of the negotiation process in South Africa leading to the first plenary session of the Convention for a Democratic of South Africa on 20 December 1991. The pre-negotiation stage was that period in the South African conflict when negotiated solutions were considered, and negotiation towards a political settlement was adopted as an option by the major parties, namely the National Party South African government and the African National Congress. The central question this dissertation asks is why did the South African multiparty negotiations begin? This question is important; De Klerk’s seminal address to the Tricameral Parliament on 2 February 1990, and the subsequent release of Nelson Mandela on 11 February 1990, is often considered as the beginning of the negotiation process in South Africa. This however is not true. Negotiations did take place before this date and they were crucial in shaping the path towards multiparty negotiations. The important question therefore is what prepared the ground for 2 February 1990, and the resulting political process that led to multiparty negotiations. The dissertation thus has two sub-questions: (1) why negotiations in South Africa occurred at all; and (2) why the South African government ended up negotiating with the ANC. To answer these questions, the dissertation will use I. William Zartman’s theory of ripeness as a guide, and Brian Tomlin’s five-staged model of pre- negotiation as an analytical framework. In this respect, the dissertation is a theoretical single- case study. The dissertation argues that multiparty negotiations in South Africa began because the South African government and the African National Congress reached a shared understanding that the South African conflict could be solved through a negotiated solution, produced a commitment to a negotiated solution, and in the process, overcame the problem of preconditions as a barrier to the opening of multiparty negotiations. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge with gratitude the support offered by all who made this possible. To Anna my partner, thank you for your unending love, support and faith in me. To Lulama and Lelethu, thank you for your beauty and ability to keep both my feet on the ground. To my supervisor, Professor Annette Seegers, thank you for your patience and friendship during this process. To the University of Cape Town, thank you for making it possible to pursue this degree. Zwelethu Jolobe Cape Town South Africa May 2014 ii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 5.1. Meetings Between the ANC and Non-Affiliated Civil Society Organisations ...... 148 iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AAM – Anti-Apartheid Movement APC – All-Party Congress ANC – African National Congress AZAPO – Azanian People’s Organisation BOSS – Bureau of State Security CODESA – Convention for a Democratic South Africa COSAS – Congress of South African Students COSATU – Congress of South African Trade Unions CPSA – Communist Party of South Africa CPSU – Communist Party of the Soviet Union DAF – Defence and Aid Fund DIA – ANC Department of International Affairs DIP – ANC Department of Information and Publicity DPSC – Detainees Parent’s Support Committee EPG – Commonwealth Eminent Persons Group FLS – Front Line States FOSATU – Federation of South African Trade Unions FRELIMO – Mozambique Liberation Front IDAF – International Defence and Aid Fund IFP – Inkatha Freedom Party JMC – Joint Management Centre MDM – Mass Democratic Movement MID – South African Military Intelligence Division MK – Umkhonto we Sizwe MPLA – People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola MPNP – Multi-Party Negotiating Process NAT – ANC Department of Intelligence and Security NEC – ANC National Executive Committee NIS – National Intelligence Service NP – National Party iv NSMS – National Security Management System NWC – ANC National Working Committee OAU – Organisation of African Unity PAC – Pan Africanist Congress PEBCO – Port Elizabeth Black Civics Organisation SACC – South African Council of Churches SACP – South African Communist Party SADF – South African Defence Force SANNC – South African Native National Congress SAP – South African Police SATIS – Southern Africa: The Imprisoned Society SKK – South African Cabinet Constitutional Committee SSC – State Security Council TRSC – Transvaal Regional Stay-Away Committee UCT – University of Cape Town UDF – United Democratic Front UN – United Nations UNHCR – United Nations High Commission for Refugees UNITA – National Union for the Total Independence of Angola UOFS – University of the Orange Free State UP – United Party VCA – Vaal Civic Association ZANU – Zimbabwean African National Union ZSIS – Zambia Security and Intelligence Service v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... ii LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................... iv CHAPTERS ................................................................................................................................. 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Research Question .......................................................................................................... 3 1.2. Research Method .......................................................................................................... 6 1.3. Basic Concepts and Definitions ................................................................................... 11 1.3.1. Negotiation ............................................................................................................ 11 1.3.2. Prenegotiation ........................................................................................................ 13 1.3.3. Ripeness ................................................................................................................. 14 1.4. Sources of Evidence ...................................................................................................... 17 1.5. Chapter Outline ............................................................................................................ 19 2. LITERATURE REVIEW: EXPLAINING NEGOTIAITONS IN SOUTH AFRICA ........ 22 2.1. Multivariable Explanations .......................................................................................... 22 2.2. Dominant Variable Explanations ................................................................................. 31 2.3. Single Variable Explanations ....................................................................................... 33 2.4. Theoretical Explanations .............................................................................................. 39 2.5. Strengths and Weaknesses of the Existing Literature .................................................. 42 2.6. Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 44 3. THE PRE-NEGOTIATION STAGE: THE ISSUE OF RIPENESS ................................... 45 3.1. Zartman, Objective Ripeness and the Mutually Hurting Stalemate ............................. 45 3.1.1. Regional Conflicts and Ripe Moments .................................................................. 45 3.1.2. Civil Wars and Ripe Moments .............................................................................. 48 3.2. Perspectives on Ripeness ............................................................................................. 51 3.2.1. Practitioner Perspectives on Ripeness ................................................................... 51 3.2.2. Scholarly Perspectives on Ripeness in Southern Africa ......................................... 55 3.3. Developing Ripeness Theory ........................................................................................ 61 3.3.1. The Dependent Variable: Initiating Official Negotiations ...................................