Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports 2010 Using Environmental and Site-specific ariablesV to Model Current and Future Distribution of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) Forest Habitat in West Virginia Nathan R. Beane West Virginia University Follow this and additional works at: https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd Recommended Citation Beane, Nathan R., "Using Environmental and Site-specific ariablesV to Model Current and Future Distribution of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) Forest Habitat in West Virginia" (2010). Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports. 3177. https://researchrepository.wvu.edu/etd/3177 This Dissertation is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by the The Research Repository @ WVU with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Dissertation in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you must obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Dissertation has been accepted for inclusion in WVU Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports collection by an authorized administrator of The Research Repository @ WVU. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Using Environmental and Site-specific Variables to Model Current and Future Distribution of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) Forest Habitat in West Virginia Nathan R. Beane Dissertation submitted to the Davis College of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Design at West Virginia University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Forest Resources Science Dr. James Rentch—Committee Chair Dr. John Brooks Dr. Eric Heitzman Dr. Thomas Schuler Dr. Michael Strager Division of Forestry Morgantown, West Virginia 2010 Keywords: red spruce forests, habitat suitability modeling, maximum entropy, Maxent, high-elevation forests, West Virginia ABSTRACT Using Environmental and Site-specific Variables to Model Current and Future Distribution of Red Spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) Forest Habitat in West Virginia Nathan R. Beane Red spruce forests are a remnant ecosystem from the interglacial period of the Wisconsin glaciation and today are considered one of the most threatened forest ecosystems in the eastern United States. The extent of red spruce forests in West Virginia prior to exploitative logging which occurred from 1880-1920 is estimated at 190,000 ha, but today, these forests are estimated to occupy no more than 24,000 ha, resulting primarily from intense anthropogenic disturbances. With the extensive loss of presettlement habitat for red spruce in West Virginia, this species is a high priority for restoration, as these forests offer the unique habitat for the endangered Cheat Mountain salamander (Plethodon nettingi Green), and provide optimal habitat for the recently delisted Virginia northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus fuscus Miller). In the first portion of the study, a novel modeling technique, Maximum Entropy (Maxent) was used to model current red spruce forest habitat in West Virginia using 168 red spruce presence localities and 32 environmental and site-specific variables. For this analysis 283,000 ha were identified in 18 counties possessing suitable red spruce habitat in West Virginia. Variables considered important for all replicate model runs were maximum temperature of the warmest month (40.6%), minimum temperature of the coldest month (13.7%), slope percent (6.9%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (6.5%), mean annual temperature (4.6%), and soil type (4.0%). The environmental and site-specific variables which contributed the most to overall model performance were also assessed further to examine the value or range of values in which red spruce habitat was likely to occur. For maximum temperature of the warmest month the threshold value identified was 25°C, where areas which had maximum summer temperature less than this value resulted in an increased probability of possessing suitable red spruce habitat. Additionally, for mean temperature of the coldest month, a threshold value was identified where all areas which possessed a mean winter monthly temperature less than -8.5°C resulted in increased probability of suitable habitat for red spruce to a peak of approximately -10.5°C. In the second portion of the study, Maxent was used to model future distribution of red spruce habitat in West Virginia using 24 environmental and site-specific variables. Two climate change scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for three time periods (i.e., 2020, 2050, and 2080) were examined. Results for both model analyses indentified three variables which contributed significantly to model performance: mean temperature of the coldest quarter, elevation, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. When combined, these variables contributed more than 40% to model performance for both scenario models. Changes in suitable habitat area were also assessed for both model scenarios at each time period examined, with dramatic reductions identified. Approximately 6.2% of the land area in West Virginia was modeled to possess suitable red spruce habitat under current conditions. However, by the time period 2020, only 1.3% and 2.8% were identified for the aggressive and conservative climate change models, respectively. By the time period 2080, no suitable red spruce habitat was modeled using the aggressive climate change scenario with 53,866 ha identified using the conservative model, representing less than 1% of the land area in West Virginia. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................ ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................ ix THE PRAYER OF THE TREES .................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1. LITERATURE REVIEW AND JUSTIFICATION .......................................... 1 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 Quaternary History of Red Spruce ......................................................................................... 2 Current Red Spruce Distribution in the Appalachian Mountain Region (AMR) .................... 5 History of Logging in West Virginia Red Spruce Forests....................................................... 7 Autoecology of Red Spruce in West Virginia ........................................................................ 10 Current Distribution of Red Spruce Forests in West Virginia .............................................. 14 Impacts of Climatic Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems ....................................................... 17 JUSTIFICATION ........................................................................................................................... 25 SUBSEQUENT CHAPTER FORMAT ............................................................................................... 26 LITERATURE CITED .................................................................................................................... 30 CHAPTER 2. USING ENVIRONMENTAL AND SITE-SPECIFIC VARIABLES TO MODEL THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF RED SPRUCE FORESTS IN WEST VIRGINIA ................................................................................................................................... 37 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. 37 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 38 METHODS .................................................................................................................................. 42 Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 42 Sample Site Selection ............................................................................................................ 44 Red Spruce Sampling ............................................................................................................ 44 Model Variables .................................................................................................................... 45 Model Building...................................................................................................................... 46 RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 50 DISCUSSION ..............................................................................................................................