THEA Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study August 15, 2017 Invest ment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study Tampa-Hillsborough E xpress way A ut horit y Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Existing and Future Transportation Infrastructure ............................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Existing Transportation Network ................................................................................................................. 3 2.3 Future Transportation Network ................................................................................................................. 12 2.4 Toll Policy .................................................................................................................................................. 28 3. Historical and Existing Traffic and Revenue Characteristics ............................................................ 30 3.1 Historical Traffic and Revenue Growth ..................................................................................................... 30 3.1.1 System wide Transactions, Toll Revenue, and Average Tolls ................................................................. 30 3.1.2 Payment Type ........................................................................................................................................... 33 3.1.3 Traffic by Plaza Group .............................................................................................................................. 34 3.2 Impact of the I-4/Selmon Connector ......................................................................................................... 35 3.3 Existing Conditions ................................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.1 Transactions by Payment Method ............................................................................................................ 38 3.3.2 Weekday Transaction Profiles .................................................................................................................. 40 3.3.3 Weekday Hourly Distribution..................................................................................................................... 43 3.3.4 Transactions and Revenue by Plaza Type ............................................................................................... 45 3.3.5 Transactions and Revenue by Vehicle Class ........................................................................................... 46 3.3.6 Trip Characteristics Study ......................................................................................................................... 47 4. Socioeconomic Review .......................................................................................................................... 51 4.1 National Trends ......................................................................................................................................... 51 4.1.1 Recent Macroeconomic Trends ................................................................................................................ 51 4.1.2 Long-Term Structural Trends .................................................................................................................... 52 4.1.3 Short-Term Economic Forecast ................................................................................................................ 53 4.1.4 Industrial Production ................................................................................................................................. 54 4.1.5 National Trends in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) .................................................................................... 54 4.2 Regional Demographic Review ................................................................................................................ 56 4.2.1 County Characteristics .............................................................................................................................. 56 4.2.1.1 Population ................................................................................................................................................. 56 4.2.2 Output and Growth .................................................................................................................................... 62 4.2.3 Employment .............................................................................................................................................. 64 4.3 Revised Demographic Forecasts .............................................................................................................. 69 5. Modeling Approach ................................................................................................................................ 72 6. Travel Demand Model Development ..................................................................................................... 73 6.1 Summary of Major Model Development and Validation Tasks ................................................................. 73 6.2 Year 2015 Modified TBRPM Validation .................................................................................................... 76 6.2.1 Data Collection .......................................................................................................................................... 76 i Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study 6.2.1.1 Traffic Count and Speed Data .................................................................................................................. 76 6.2.1.2 Online Survey ........................................................................................................................................... 78 6.2.2 Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Numbering Structure .................................................................................... 78 6.2.3 Socioeconomic Data ................................................................................................................................. 79 6.2.4 Highway Network ...................................................................................................................................... 79 6.2.5 Toll File...................................................................................................................................................... 80 6.2.6 Turn Penalty Files ..................................................................................................................................... 81 6.2.7 Transit Network ......................................................................................................................................... 81 6.2.8 Validation Results ..................................................................................................................................... 81 6.2.8.1 Trips on Project Corridor Comparison ...................................................................................................... 82 1.1.1 Assignment on Project Corridor ................................................................................................................ 83 6.3 Development of Future Year Scenarios .................................................................................................... 90 6.4 Results and Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 90 7. Traffic and Revenue Modeling ............................................................................................................... 91 7.1 Existing System Model and Forecast ....................................................................................................... 92 7.2 Selmon West Extension Model and Forecast ........................................................................................... 94 7.2.1 Traffic and Speed Profiles......................................................................................................................... 94 7.2.2 Origins and Destinations ........................................................................................................................... 96 7.2.3 Value of Time ............................................................................................................................................ 96 7.2.4 Traffic Assumptions .................................................................................................................................. 98 7.2.5 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 99 7.3 Total System Forecasts .......................................................................................................................... 101 7.4 Net System Revenues Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 105 8. Limits and Disclaimers ......................................................................................................................... 109 Appendix A. Travel Survey