TheRoleofPreventiveDiplomacyinAfricanConflicts:ACaseStudy oftheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo:1998-2004 by GERHARDUSSTEPHANUSSWART Submittedinfulfilmentoftherequirements forthedegreeof MAGISTERARTIUM (INTERNATIONALRELATIONS) inthe DEPARTMENTOFPOLITICALSCIENCES FACULTYOFHUMANITIES UNIVERSITYOFPRETORIA SUPERVISOR:PROFHSOLOMON PRETORIA APRIL2008 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS IwouldliketoexpressmyheartfeltthanksandappreciationtoProfessorHussein Solomonforhisunwaveringsupport,inspirationandguidanceheprovidedtome duringthewritingofthisdissertation. Iwouldalsoliketoexpressmyheartfeltappreciationandlovetomyentirefamily, friendsandcolleaguesfortheiramazingsupportduringthecompletionofthis academicodyssey. Peacecannotbekeptbyforce. Itcanonlybeachievedbyunderstanding. AlbertEinstein ii ABSTRACT The African continent has been beset with violent conflicts, civil wars and extendedperiodsofinstability.Thecontinent’sfuturedependsonthecapacityto prevent, manage and resolve conflict. Reacting to conflict has proven highly expensivefortheinternationalcommunityandhasstrengthenedthecasefora greaterfocusonconflictprevention.Thisstudywillexaminetherole,relevance andsuccessofpreventivediplomacyinrespondingtoandpreventingviolentand protracted conflicts inAfrica, in particular recent international efforts to seek a concrete,comprehensiveandall-inclusivepeacesettlementtotheconflictinthe DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo.TheconflictintheDemocraticRepublicofthe Congohadresultedinwhatmanyanalystsconsideredtobe‘Africa’sFirstWorld War’.Theaimandobjectiveofthisstudywillbetoassesstheroleofpreventive diplomacy, in particular efforts by the international community to resolve the conflictintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo. Thestudyofthesuccessofpreventivediplomacyinrespondingtotheconflictin the Democratic Republic of Congo will cover three distinct phases. The first phase will assess the historical development of the crisis in the former Zaïre datingbackfrom1997to1998andinitialstepsthatweretakentoaddressthe conflict.Thenextphasewillcovertheperioddatingfrom1999-2000followingthe signing of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, while the final phase will assess developmentsandeffortstosecurepeacebytheinternationalcommunityfrom 2001 until 2004, while providing for a brief discussion on possible future developments. The research will commence by examining various theoretical contributions and insights produced on conflict prevention and the concept of preventive diplomacy. The examination of conflict prevention and preventive diplomacywillberootedintheoreticalinsightsproducedbyMichaelLund(1996) and other influential contributions on preventive diplomacy. The theoretical framework for this study will be based onMichael Lund’s model of preventive diplomacy. iii AlthoughLund’sconceptualframeworkprovidesavaluableinsightintothetheory ofpreventivediplomacyanadditionaltheoreticalconsiderationmaybeincluded intohisassessment.Lund’stheoreticalframeworkfailstoaddresstheimpactof psychologicalvariablesandtheextenttowhichprevailingconflictattitudesmay exert a negative influence on a conflict situation. This may render the effectivenessofpreventivediplomacyatthelevelofunstablepeaceobsoleteifit failstotakeprevailingconflictattitudesintoaccount.Thisdissertationwillalso propose the inclusion of social-psychological approaches to augment the strategyofpreventivediplomacyasdevelopedbyLund.Verylittleconclusiveand in-depth research has been conducted on how psychological variables, particularlyconflictattitudessuchasnegativeimages,attitudes,perceptionsand conflictbehaviourcanfuelandexacerbateaconflictsituation,especiallyconflicts in Africa and how this may derail the success of preventive diplomacy in resolvingsuchsevereconflicts.Inthenumerouseffortstosecurepeaceinthe embattledDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoscantconsideration,evaluationand analysis has been produced on the way in which conflict attitudes such as misperception, fear, distrust, hostility and suspicion, became not only a major stumblingblocktothepeaceprocess,butalsonegativelyaffectedtheoutcome ofthevariouspeaceagreementsthatwerenegotiated. Oneofthecoreargumentsthisdissertationwillpositisthatpreventivediplomacy has not been successfully applied in resolving conflicts in Africa, and will continuetofail,unlessgreateremphasisisplacedonstructuralprevention,that includesanassessmentandstrategyforrespondingtoconflictattitudes,suchas misperception, hostility, suspicion, fear and distrust. It could be argued that preventive diplomacy initiatives when taken alone and independently of a broaderstrategyofconflictpreventionarelikelytofailunlesstheyarelinkedto measures and actions that tackle the deeper or structural causes of conflict. Greateremphasisshouldbeplacedontimelyandadequatepreventiveaction, through the vigorous promotion of preventive diplomacy, particularly structural prevention.TheconflictintheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoisintermittently iv eruptingandwillcontinuetodoso,unlessthestructuralcausesofthecrisisand thevariousconflictattitudesareeffectivelydealtwith. Thestudywillcommencewiththetheoreticalandconceptualframeworkofthe study, consisting ofa discussion of conflict, preventive diplomacy, and conflict prevention. The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will be discussedaswellastheunderlyingfactorsthatcontributedtowardsthebrutal andexcessivelyviolentnaturetheconflictcametoassume.Thestudywillalso examinetheinternationalresponsetotheconflictintheDemocraticRepublicof the Congo as well as the immediate diplomatic efforts initiated to resolve the crisisfrom1998-1999,whichculminatedinthesigningoftheLusakaCease-Fire Agreementon10July1999.Anassessmentoftheinterventioneffortsinitiatedby theUnitedNations,theSouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC)and otherkeyAfricanstates,inparticularSouthAfricawillalsobeundertaken.The impact of psychological variables and the importance of assessing the crucial contribution of social-psychological approaches towards understanding and resolving conflict will be briefly considered with particular reference to the protractedtensionswhichpersistedbetweenRwandaandtheDRC,despitethe conclusionofnumerouspeaceagreementsbetweenbothcountries. ThefinalchapterwillformanevaluationoftheprospectsforpeaceintheDRC beyond2004andwillconcludethestudywithparticularreferencetotheextentto which the research questions have been adequately addressed with final recommendationsontheroleofpreventivediplomacyinaddressingconflict. Key Concepts: Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Preventive Diplomacy, Conflict Prevention, Structural Prevention, Proximate Prevention, Ripeness Theory, PoliticalPsychology,Social-PsychologicalApproaches,PsychologicalVariables, Conflict Attitudes, Great Lakes, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Uganda,LusakaCeasefireAgreement,Inter-CongoleseDialogues,SADC,South Africa,UN,MONUC v OPSOMMING DieAfrikakontinentgaannougebukondergeweldadigekonflik,burger-oorloёen verlengde tydperke van onstabiliteit. Die kontinent se toekoms is afhanklik van diekapasiteitomkonfliktevoorkom,tehanteerenoptelos.Diereaksieop konfliksituasiesdeurdieinternasionalegemeenskapisegteraansienlikduuren het die argument vir ‘n groter klem en fokus op die voorkoming van konflik geplaas. Hierdie studie het ten doel om die rol, toepaslikheid en sukses van voorkomendediplomasieomkonfliktevoorkomteondersoek,veraldieonlangse pogingsdeurdieinternasionalegemeenskapom‘nvolhoubareoplossingvirdie konflikindieDemokratieseRepubliekvandieKongodaartestel.Diestudievan die konflik in die Demokratiese Republiek van die Kongo sal bestaan uit drie onderskeie tydperke. Die eerste tydperk sal konsentreer op die historiese aanlooptotdiekrisisindievoormaligeZaïrevan1997totenmet1998endie voorlopige stappe wat geneem is om die konflik aan te spreek. Die volgende tydperk sal konsentreer op 1999-2000, veral met betrekking tot die ondertekening van die Lusaka Skietstilstand Ooreenkoms. Die derde en laaste tydperksalfokusopdieonderskeiepogingsvandieinternasionalegemeenskap om‘noplossingvirdiekonflikindieDemokratieseRepubliekvandieKongote bewerkstellig vanaf 2001 tot en met 2004 met ‘n kortlikse oorsig van die vooruitsigtevirvolhoubarevredeintheDemokratieseRepubliekvandieKongo. Die studie sal begin met ‘n ondersoek na verskeie teoretiese raamwerke oor konflik voorkoming asook die konsep van voorkomende diplomasie. Die ondersoek van konflik voorkoming en voorkomende diplomasie sal gegrond weesindieteoretiesebydraevanMichaelLund(1996).Dieteoretieseraamwerk vir hierdie studie sal gebasseer wees op Michael Lund se model van voorkomendediplomasie. AlhoewelLundsekonseptueleraamwerk‘nwaardevollebydraelewertot‘nbeter kennis en begrip van voorkomende diplomasie is dit nodig om ‘n addisionele vi aspekdaarbyintesluit.Lundseteoretieseraamwerkversuimomdieimpakvan sielkundige veranderlikes op ‘n konflik situasie in ag te neem asook die impak vanheersendekonflikingesteldhede.Ditkanheelmoontlikdiedoeltreffendheid van voorkomende diplomasie ondermyn. Die studie sal dus die argument ondersteun vir die insluiting van sosiaal-sielkundige perspektiewe en benaderings tot konflik ten einde die strategie van voorkomende diplomasie te versterk.Indieverbandisweinigoortuigendeenverklarendestudiesonderneem teneindediewerklikeimpakvanhoenegatiewekonflikingesteldhede‘nkonflik kanverergerenhoeditdienooreenkomstigdiesuksesvolleimplementeringvan voorkomendediplomasiemoontlikkanraak. Eenvandiekernargumentevandiestudieisdatvoorkomendediplomasienie op‘ndoeltreffendewysegeïmplementeerwordteneindekonflikteinAfrikaaan tespreeknie.‘nVerdereargumentwataangevoerkanwordisdatvoorkomende