77th Euroconru Conference 12-13 June 2014, Oslo 77 th 77th Euroconru Summary Report European Conruion: Market Trends until 2016 EVENT SPONSORS: ORGANIZER EVENT SPONSORS 77th Euroconru Conference 12-13 June 2014, Oslo AT 77th Euroconru Summary Report European Conruion: Market Trends until 2016 All rights reserved © EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2014 Reproduction or distribution of all or parts of the report is strictly forbidden without the prior written authority from Prognosesenteret AS, acting on behalf of the EUROCONSTRUCT network. EUROCONSTRUCT ® is a registered trademark. The report is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information supplied or the forecasts made. This Country Report has been written and prepared by the EUROCONSTRUCT network from the country reports of the 19 EUROCONSTRUCT member institutes. Design by FARM Studio (farm.co.hu) The report has been edited by Buildecon, www.buildecon.com Table Of Contents The Euroconstruct Network 4 Macroeconomic outlook 7 Forecast Tables 11 Residential market 23 Forecast Tables 36 Non-residential market 45 Forecast Tables 62 Civil engineering market 73 Forecast Tables 82 Construction market overview 93 Forecast Tables 97 Methodological notes and definitions 115 Member Institutes 143 The Euroconru Network Austria [AT] – WIFO Hungary [HU] – BUILDECON Slovakia [SK] – ÚEOS Belgium [BE] – Aquiec-Vkebi Ireland [IE] – DKM Spain [ES]– ITeC Czech Republic [CZ] – ÚRS PRAHA Italy [IT] – CRESME Sweden [SE] – Prognoscentret AB Denmark [DK] – CIFS Netherlands [NL] – EIB Switzerland [CH] – KOF ETH Finland [FI] – Forecon Norway [NO] – Prognosesenteret AS United Kingdom [UK] – EXPERIAN France [FR] – BIPE Poland [PL] – PAB Germany [GE] – Ifo Portugal [PT] – ITIC FI NO SE DK IE UK NL PL DE BE CZ SK AT FR CH HU IT ES PT 4 European Construction Business • Manufacturers and traders supplying construction Research And Forecasting Group materials, products, equipment and machines; architects and other construction professionals; • Insurances, banks, financial and credit institu- www.euroconstruct.org tions; fund managers and other investors; gov- ernment departments and national agencies; EUROCONSTRUCT ® is a registered trademark. industry associations; • The Commission of the European Community and EUROCONSTRUCT was set up in 1974 by special- other European organisations. ised research organisations from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and United Each country member of EUROCONSTRUCT has the Kingdom as a study group for construction analysis project management resources to offer their cus- and forecasting. It has since expanded from the core tomers turnkey studies of pan-European scope. group to include almost all Western European coun- tries, as well as 4 Central Eastern European coun- They can guarantee: tries. At present, EUROCONSTRUCT has member • Specific know-how and experience in database institutes in 19 European countries. research and consulting; • A consistent multinational approach; EUROCONSTRUCT‘s objective is to provide decision • Expertise in project co-ordination and quality con- makers in the construction sector and other to the trol; construction industry related markets with infor- • Reports in the languages of the customer‘s choice. mation, analyses and forecasts to enable them to • Twice a year, EUROCONSTRUCT organises an plan their business better and more effectively. international conference on: Furthermore, the activities of the EUROCONSTRUCT • Forecasts for the main market segments (housing, network addresses to official institutions like min- non-residential construction, infrastructure and istries or agencies and to national and international civil engineering, all sub-sectors with a break- associations. down in new work and renovation/ modernisa- tion activities) in the EUROCONSTRUCT member Construction markets are regional or even local. It is, countries; therefore, a great advantage that the analyses and • A special issue selected for its impact on the forecasts for these markets are prepared within the construction industry (e.g. demographics, pri- EUROCONSTRUCT network by competent national vatisation, lifestyles, technological change, institutes for their respective home markets. internationalisation of strategies, changes in the demand and supply structure). EUROCONSTRUCT‘s research and advice focuses on: Recent and forthcoming conference venues: • Short and medium-term macro-economic fore- • Summer 2013 Copenhagen (Denmark) casts and construction trends in Europe; • Winter 2013 Prague (Czech Republic) • Analyses of structural changes, business strate- • Summer 2014 Oslo (Norway) gies and competition in the construction indus- • Winter 2014 Rome (Italy) try; • Summer 2015 Warsaw (Poland) • Market studies for industrial goods and services used by the building and infrastructure sectors. In addition, EUROCONSTRUCT offers special studies • EUROCONSTRUCT‘s research and forecasts are for selected national and international clients based designed to meet the needs of many types of busi- on well-founded knowledge of databases, methods, ness including: correlations and measures. • Construction contractors and developers; housing associations; For details, please contact the EUROCONSTRUCT partner institute in your country. 5 77th Euroconru Conference 12-13 June 2014, Oslo Residential market DKM Economic Consultants www.dkm.ie Annette Hughes [email protected] Lorcan Blake [email protected] 23 © EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2014 Residential market 1. The Euroconstruct housing market Residential construction, Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) – where have we come from? Index 2010=100, Oslo (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts 108 Total residential construction 108 At the 2013 Euroconstruct Winter conference 106 106 Oslo (-4) (Prague), it was reported that the European hous- 104 EC June 2014 Oslo 104 Oslo (-3) ing market was stabilising following a period of 102 102 intense turbulence which had begun in 2007. The 100 Oslo (-1) 100 estimated outturn for the sector expected a further 98 98 contraction again in 2013, albeit at a slower rate Oslo (-2) than in 2012, before experiencing a recovery from 96 96 2014 onwards. This recovery was forecast to be 94 94 marginal in nature, with the greatest gains up to 92 92 2016 accruing to Eastern European countries. That 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 said the forecast recovery from 2014 onwards was New residential construction very mixed with those markets most affected by 108 108 Oslo (-4) the economic crisis, notably Spain, Italy, Portugal 106 106 and the Netherlands, expected to see a further Oslo (-3) EC June 2014 Oslo 104 104 contraction in new residential construction in Oslo (-1) 2014. The renovation market was less volatile but 102 102 growth rates across the Euroconstruct area as a 100 Oslo (-2) 100 whole were also projected to be more modest in 98 98 the medium-term. 96 96 94 94 Comparing the forecasts over the past four confer- ences it is evident that: 92 92 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • 2013 was first projected to be the year in which new residential construction was to bottom out 108 Residential renovation 108 according to the December 2012 conference, but 106 106 the scale of the contraction in 2013 became more 104 104 pronounced by the subsequent conference in June Oslo (-4) EC June 2014 Oslo Oslo (-3) 2013, following which the medium-term fore- 102 102 casts for the period 2014-2016 have been reasona- 100 100 Oslo (-1) bly close since the June 2013 conference. 98 98 • Residential renovation in 2013 was also first Oslo (-2) 96 96 expected to bottom out at the time of the December 2012 conference and while it appears 94 94 to have done so, albeit at a lower level, according 92 92 to later conferences, the prospects for the period 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2014-2016 were weaker at the time of the June and Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (77th Conference) November 2013 conferences than they currently are in June 2014. • The above trends are replicated for total residential However, the Euroconstruct market is very diverse construction with the medium-term prospects for and signs of a recovery are still not evident in some 2014-2016 marginally better now that they were at housing markets due to issues to do with oversup- the time of the last two conferences in June and ply, tight credit conditions and falling residential November 2013. property prices. These comparisons would lead one to conclude that the recovery commenced in earnest this year, and provided the Euroconstruct economy performs in line with expectations and gradually improves, the revival in total residential construction should gather momentum over the medium-term. In a report on the European Housing Market earlier this year1, Standard and Poor’s Rating Services summa- rised the outlook as one in which “Europe’s hous- ing markets may be on a slow path to recovery”. 1 Europe’s Housing Markets May Be On A Slow Path To Recovery, Credit Market Services, Standard and Poor’s Rating Services, January 22, 2014. 24 © EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2014 Residential market 2. Structure of the Euroconstruct Looking at the individual market segments, start- residential construction market ing with new residential construction, it is the case that around one-half of the output is gener- ated in the three Big Western European countries, The Euroconstruct housing market is a significant with over one-fifth