MAHARAJA SURAJMAL BRIJ UNIVERSITY MSB Global Law Institute MSJ College Campus, Bharatpur-321001 Ph. & Fax No. 05644-220560, Email- [email protected] Website – www.msbrijuniversity.ac.in Theories of Inflation Introduction Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price level or a sustained fall in the value of money. Inflation in India is explained by various factors, viz., excessive aggregate demand, imbalance between the sectoral demand and supply, cost factors including rising import prices and rate of expansion of money. To understand the type of inflation, we analyse the price trends, the rate of expansion of money supply and the rate of increase in demand. To quantify the amount of inflation in the economy, indicators such as the Wholesale Price Index, the Consumer Price Index and the GDP Deflator are used. Meaning of Inflation Inflation is understood by most people as a substantial rapid general increase in the level of prices and consequent devaluation in the value of money over a period of time. Harry Johnson, defines inflation as “A sustained rise in price”. Crowther defines inflation, “A state in which the value of money is falling, i.e., the prices are rising”. Edward Shapiro define inflation, “Recognising the ambiguities that our words contain, we will define inflation simply as a persistent and an appreciable rise in the general level of prices”. Types of Inflation Open Inflation: In a free market economy, prices go up freely due to supply-demand imbalances leading to open inflation. Suppressed Inflation: Suppressed inflation occurs in a controlled economy where the upward pressure on prices is not allowed to influence the quoted or managed prices. But inflation reveals itself in other forms. Creeping Inflation, Galloping Inflation and Hyper Inflation These three categories of inflation are recognised on the basis of severity of inflation, as measured in terms of rate of rise in prices. Creeping Inflation-There is moderate rise in prices of 2-3 per cent per annum in creeping inflation. It is generally considered good for a growing economy. Mildly rising prices result in faster growth of output in that they raise the profit margins of firms and encourage them to produce more. Creeping inflation does not severely distort relative prices nor does it destabilise price expectations. A single digit inflation is also considered as moderate inflation which most countries have come to put up with. Galloping Inflation - In galloping inflation prices rise at double or treble digit rates per annum (20-100%). It tends to distort relative prices and results in disquieting changes in distribution of purchasing power of different groups of income earners. Hyper Inflation - Hyperinflation or run-away inflation is of a severe type in which prices rise a thousand or a million or even a billion per cent per year. It seriously cripples the economy. Prices and money supply rise alarmingly. Factors of Inflation The major inflationary factors are: Money Supply: The first major source of inflation is an increase in money supply in the economy. Increase in money supply results primarily from an increase in demand deposits and expansion of loans and investments by the commercial banks. Expansion of bank credit is at once a cause and an effect of inflationary pressures since it reflects an enlarged income stream resulting from the use of bank credit and parting a growing business and personal demand for funds due to higher prices and costs. Disposable Income: This refers to the income payments to factors after personal taxes have been paid. An increase in disposable income results in an increase in the absolute amount of consumption expenditure in the economy. Such an increase is inflationary in character. Increase in Business Outlays: Increase in business outlays or capital expansion takes on a speculative character during an inflationary boom. New equipment and plants and excessive inventories are often financed by speculative borrowing, not to mention an increase in replacement demand. Most of business expenditure finds its way into the income stream dividends, wages and other income payments. These are often inflationary in character. Increased Foreign Demand: Another factor responsible for increased demand is foreign expenditure for domestic goods and services. This factor is particularly significant if a country maintains an export surplus on its balance of trade. Foreign demand exerts considerable inflationary pressures on domestic areas of shortages which may be a focal point of spreading inflation. Causes of cost push inflation There are the following causes of cost push inflation. 1.Wage-push Pressures: Cost push inflation is often attributed to wage push or profit push pressures. Wage push pressures are created by labour unions and workers who are often able to increase their wages faster than their productivity. It is widely believed that powerful trade unions cause inflation by pushing up wages. This variant of cost push inflation, called wage- push inflation, occurs when wages rise faster than labour productivity; statistical studies indeed corroborate this view. 2. Profit-Push and Mark-up Pricing: Suppose all business firms have the practice of pricing the goods and services which they sell on the basis of standard mark-up over their direct cost of materials and labour. In such a situation when the firms follow cost plus pricing either an increase in costs or an increase in the mark-up as a percentage of the costs or both will lead to a rise in the price level. Such a mark-up inflation is because of dynamic price expectations of consumers and speculative activities of traders. 3. Import Prices: Since no country in the present day world is self-sufficient, imports play an important part in cost push inflation. Thus, inflation is often transmitted from country to country. The sharp increase in the world commodity prices, especially oil, in the 1970s undoubtedly contributed to inflation. Since inflation is a global phenomenon; it cannot be avoided. Consequences / Effects of Inflation Inflation has its impact on the industry normally through the impact it exercises on such Macro Economic variables like interest rate prevailing in the economy, growth rate experienced, investment and credit off take, et al. besides of course the impact on availability and dearness of factors of production. Inflation can be studied by understanding its effect on the following. Inflation and Profitability Uncertainty about costs and rates of return induced by very rapidly rising prices may well lead to cutbacks in capital investment programmes and this is one of the reasons why we find inflation and recession together. There may also be squeezes on fixed investment in so far as stock building pre-empts whatever liquid resources are available. Inflation and Labour Productivity One of the major consequences of inflation is that it is marked with labour unrest. Average number of days (in million) lost in industrial disputes in India have been as follows: year number of days (in million) 1991-92 34.57 1992-93 22.97 1993-94 20.44 1995-96 19.20 The private corporate sector, especially the capital intensive ones worry about the effect of strikes on their profit record and their ability to raise capital in the future. Inflation, Taxation and the Private Corporate Sector When the tax rates are at very low levels the fact that corporation taxes are levied on a profit concept which does not allow for replacement cost of fixed assets or inventories may not be very important; and similarly with personal income tax rates for incorporated businesses or taxation of nominal capital gains for any type of business. But when business firms have to face tax rates at high levels and inflation is proceeding apace, the situation is entirely different. The drastic effects of inflation plus taxation are compared below. Inflation and Marketing Inflation affects all aspects of corporate activity but marketing which operates as the interface between supplier and customer, is under the sharpest pressure of all. Due to inflation, the Indian corporate sector faces distortion of the existing relationship between buyers and sellers and thereby creates uncertainty over current and future trading practices. Inflation also affects wages and salary levels, transport costs, packaging, printing and communications charges. Thus inflation for the companies would result in: 1. An increased sensitivity on the part of the customers to price. 2. A heightened resistance to marketing blandishments. 3. A tendency to substitute for quality product those which, although of a lower quality, are regarded as adequate. 4. An increased resistance to non-essential features of products. 5. A reduced rate of growth in real demand for goods and services. 6. A shift in expenditure away from non-essential goods and services. 7. Inflation and the Investment Decision. Progressive income taxes and other income effects and corporation taxes levied on nominal profits and stock gains affect the profitability of capital investment in both nominal and real terms. Also, companies cannot benefit in real terms from after-tax stock gains unless the rate of gain is somewhat greater than rate of inflation. Inflation and Interest Rate Interest rates are, to a large extent, a function of the level of inflation. Higher inflation translates into a higher expected real rate of return, which in turn translates into a higher level of interest rates in the economy. The actual impact on interest rates is far from clear. On the one hand, increased government borrowings and shift in financing from foreign to domestic borrowings is likely to make interest rates dearer, while on the other hand, higher liquidity with banks, a phased reduction in CRR and lackluster industrial demand is likely to exert a downward pressure on interest rates. Inflation, Interest Rates and Savings High real interest expectations cause higher savings.