November 2019 Local Area Population Projections for South Australia, 2016 to 2036 This document is a summary of the Local Area Population Projections for South Australia, 2016 to 2036. For further information Please visit www.saplanningportal.sa.gov.au or contact Planning and Development, the Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure on 1800 752 664. Disclaimer While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that this document is correct at the time of publication, the Minister for Planning, the State of South Australia, its agencies, instrumentalities, employees and contractors disclaim any and all liability to any person in respect to anything or the consequence of anything done or omitted to be done in reliance upon the whole or any part of this document. © Government of South Australia. Published 2020. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-0-7590-0309-5 Contents Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Method ..................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Local Area Geography ............................................................................................................. 6 1.3 Strategic Objectives ................................................................................................................. 7 1.4 Recent Development Trends ................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Future Land Supply Assumptions ............................................................................................ 7 1.5.1 Major infill land supply opportunities ............................................................................. 8 1.5.2 Greenfield land supply opportunities ............................................................................. 8 1.5.3 Minor infill land supply opportunities ........................................................................... 10 1.6 Land Supply Limitations......................................................................................................... 11 1.6.1 Greenfield land ............................................................................................................ 11 1.6.2 Major infill constraints .................................................................................................. 11 1.6.3 Minor infill constraints .................................................................................................. 11 SA2 level projection Results by Region, 2016 to 2036 .................................................................... 12 2.1 Inner Metro Region (part Adelaide - Central and Hills SA4) .................................................. 12 2.2 Adelaide – Inner North Region (part Adelaide – North SA4) ................................................. 15 2.3 Adelaide - Outer North Region (part Adelaide - North SA4).................................................. 18 2.4 Adelaide – Inner South Region (part Adelaide – South SA4)................................................ 21 2.5 Adelaide – Outer South Region (part Adelaide – South SA4) ............................................... 24 2.6 Adelaide – West Region (SA4) .............................................................................................. 27 2.7 Adelaide - Hills Region (part Adelaide - Central and Hills SA4) ............................................ 30 2.8 Barossa - Yorke - Mid North Region (SA4) ........................................................................... 32 2.9 Fleurieu - Kangaroo Island Region (part South Australia - South East SA4) ........................ 35 2.10 Murray and Mallee (part South Australia - South East SA4) ................................................. 37 2.11 Limestone Coast Region (part South Australia - South East SA4) ....................................... 40 2.12 Eyre Peninsula and South West Region (part South Australia – Outback Region SA4) ...... 42 2.13 SA Outback North and East Region (part South Australia – Outback Region SA4) ............. 44 LGA level projection Results by Region, 2016 to 2036 ................................................................... 46 List of Tables Table 1 Projected Population Change by Region 2016-2036 (medium series) ............................... 1 Table 2 Top 10 SA2s by highest projected growth, 2016-2036 ....................................................... 2 Table 3 Top 5 LGAs by highest projected growth, 2016-2036......................................................... 4 Table 4 Land Supply Assumptions - Major Infill ............................................................................... 8 Table 5 Land Supply Assumptions - Greenfield - Northern Adelaide .............................................. 9 Table 6 Land Supply Assumptions - Greenfield - Southern Adelaide and Hills ............................... 9 Table 7 Land Supply Assumptions - Greenfield - Southern Townships .......................................... 9 Table 8 Land Supply Assumptions - Minor Infill ............................................................................. 10 Table 9 Inner Metro Projected Population Assumptions ................................................................ 12 Table 10 Adelaide – Inner North Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions .................. 15 Table 11 Adelaide – Outer North Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ................. 18 Table 12 Adelaide – Inner South Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ................. 21 Table 13 Adelaide – Outer South Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ................ 24 Table 14 Adelaide - West Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions............................. 27 Table 15 Adelaide - Hills Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions .............................. 30 Table 16 Barossa - Yorke - Mid North Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ......... 32 Table 17 Fleurieu - Kangaroo Island Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ........... 35 Table 18 Murray and Mallee Projected Population and Land Supply Assumptions ........................ 37 i Table 19 Limestone Coast Projected Population ............................................................................. 40 Table 20 Eyre Peninsula and South West Projected Population ..................................................... 42 Table 21 Outback - North and East Projected Population ............................................................... 44 Table 22 LGA Population Projections for Greater Adelaide Region and Rest of SA ....................... 48 List of Figures / Maps Figure 1 Residential Development Trends for Greater Adelaide, 2012 to 2018 ............................... 7 Figure 2 Inner Metro Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ...................................................... 13 Figure 3 Adelaide – Inner North Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .................................... 16 Figure 4 Adelaide - Outer North Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .................................... 19 Figure 5 Adelaide - Inner South Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .................................... 22 Figure 6 Adelaide – Outer South Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ................................... 25 Figure 7 Adelaide – West Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .............................................. 28 Figure 8 Adelaide – Hills Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ............................................... 30 Figure 9 Barossa - Yorke - Mid North Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ............................ 33 Figure 10 Fleurieu - Kangaroo Island Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .............................. 35 Figure 11 Murray and Mallee Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 .......................................... 38 Figure 12 Limestone Coast Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ............................................. 40 Figure 13 Eyre Peninsula and South West Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ..................... 42 Figure 14 Outback - North and East Population 2016, 2026 and 2036 by SA2 ................................ 44 Map 1 Projected population change, Greater Adelaide, 2016 to 2036 .............................................. 3 Map 2 Population Projection Regions ................................................................................................ 6 Map 3 Inner Metro Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ........................................ 14 Map 4 Adelaide – Inner North Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ....................... 17 Map 5 Adelaide - Outer North Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ....................... 20 Map 6 Adelaide - Inner South Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ....................... 23 Map 7 Adelaide - Outer South Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ...................... 26 Map 8 Adelaide - West Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ................................. 29 Map 9 Adelaide - Hills Projected Population Change 2016 to 2036, by SA2 ................................... 31 Map 10 Barossa - Yorke - Mid North Projected Population