Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989. Copyright © 2018 - Viella s.r.l. & Associazione Asia Maior ISSN 2385-2526 ISBN 978-88-3313-044-6 (paper) ISBN 978-88-3313-045-3 (e-book) Annual journal - Vol. XXVIII, 2017 Published jointly by Associazione Asia Maior & CSPE - Centro Studi per i Popoli extra-europei “Cesare Bonacossa” - Università di Pavia EDITOR (direttore responsabile): Michelguglielmo Torri (University of Tu- rin). CO-EDITORS: Elisabetta Basile (University of Rome «La Sapienza»); Nicola Mocci (University of Sassari). BOOK REVIEWS EDITORS: Oliviero Frattolillo (University Roma Tre); Francesca Congiu (University of Cagliari). STEERING COMMITTEE Axel Berkofsky (University of Pavia); Diego Maiorano (University of Notting- ham); Nicola Mocci (University of Sassari); Giulio Pugliese (King’s College London); Michelguglielmo Torri (University of Turin); Elena Valdameri (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETH Zurich); Pierluigi Valsecchi (Uni- versity of Pavia). The graphic design of this Asia Maior issue is by Nicola Mocci Asia Maior. The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Bor- sa in 1989 is an open-access journal, whose issues and single articles can be freely downloaded from the think tank webpage: www.asiamaior.org. Paper version Italy € 50.00 Abroad € 65.00 Subscription [email protected] www.viella.it viella libreria editrice via delle Alpi, 32 I-00198 ROMA tel. 06 84 17 758 fax 06 85 35 39 60 www.viella.it centro studi per i popoli extra-europei “cesare bonacossa” - università di pavia ASIA MAIOR The Journal of the Italian think tank on Asia founded by Giorgio Borsa in 1989 Vol. XXVIII / 2017 Asia in the Waning Shadow of American Hegemony Edited by Michelguglielmo Torri, Elisabetta Basile, Nicola Mocci viella associazione asia Maior Steering Committee: Marzia Casolari (President), Francesca Congiu, Diego Maiorano, Nicola Mocci (Vice President), Michelguglielmo Torri (Scientific Director). Scientific Board: Guido Abbattista (Università di Trieste), Domenico Ami- rante (Università «Federico II», Napoli), Elisabetta Basile (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Luigi Bonanate (Università di Torino), Claudio Cecchi (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Alessandro Colombo (Università di Mila- no), Anton Giulio Maria de Robertis (Università di Bari), Thierry Di Costan- zo (Université de Strasbourg), Max Guderzo (Università di Firenze), Franco Mazzei (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Giorgio Milanetti (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Paolo Puddinu (Università di Sassari), Adriano Rossi (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Giuseppe Sacco (Università «Roma Tre», Roma), Guido Samarani (Università «Ca’ Foscari», Venezia), Filippo Sabetti (McGill University, Montréal), Gianni Vaggi (Università di Pavia), Alberto Ventura (Università della Calabria) CSPE - Centro Studi per i Popoli extra-europei “Cesare Bonacossa” - Università di Pavia Steering Committee: Axel Berkofsky, Arturo Colombo, Antonio Morone, Giulia Rossolillo, Gianni Vaggi, Pierluigi Valsecchi (President), Massimo Zaccaria. Before being published in Asia Maior, all articles, whether commissioned or unsolicited, after being first evaluated by the Journal’s editors, are then submitted to a double-blind peer review involving up to three anonymous referees. Coherently with the double-blind peer review process, Asia Maior does not make public the name of the reviewers. However, their names – and, if need be, the whole correspondence between the journal’s editors and the reviewer/s – can be disclosed to interested institutions, upon a formal request made directly to the Director of the journal. Articles meant for publication should be sent to Michelguglielmo Torri (mg. [email protected]) and to Nicola Mocci ([email protected]); book reviews should be sent to Oliviero Frattolillo ([email protected]) and Francesca Congiu ([email protected]). contents 7 MichelguglielMo torri, Asia Maior in 2017: The unravelling of the US foreign policy in Asia and its consequences 29 Marco Milani, Korean Peninsula 2017: Searching for new balances 59 Francesca congiu & christian rossi, China 2017: Searching for internal and international consent 93 sebastian Maslow & giulio pugliese, Japan 2017: Defending the domestic and international status quo 113 aurelio insisa, Taiwan 2017: Stalemate on the Strait 129 bonn Juego, The Philippines 2017: Duterte-led authoritarian populism and its liberal-democratic roots 165 elena valdaMeri, Indonesia 2017: Towards illiberal democracy? 191 nicola Mocci, Cambodia 2016-2017: The worsening of social and political conflicts 211 pietro Masina, Thailand 2017: Political stability and democratic crisis in the first year of King Vajiralongkorn 227 Matteo FuMagalli, Myanmar 2017: The Rohingya crisis between radicalisation and ethnic cleansing 245 Marzia casolari, Bangladesh 2017: The Rohingya’s carnage 267 MichelguglielMo torri & diego Maiorano, India 2017: Narendra Modi’s continuing hegemony and his challenge to China 291 MichelguglielMo torri, India 2017: Still no achhe din (good days) for the economy 309 Matteo Miele, Nepal 2015-2017: A post-earthquake constitution and the political struggle 331 Fabio leone, Sri Lanka 2017: The uncertain road of the «yahapalayanaya» government 351 Marco corsi, Pakistan 2017: Vulnerabilities of the emerging market 369 diego abenante, Afghanistan 2017: Trump’s «New Strategy», the Af-Pak conundrum, and the crisis of the National Unity Government 387 luciano zaccara, Iran 2017: From Rouhani’s re-election to the December protests 411 adele del sordi, Kazakhstan 2017: Institutional stabilisation, nation- building, international engagement 431 Reviews 461 Appendix The PhiliPPines 2017: DuTerTe-leD auThoriTarian PoPulism anD iTs liberal-DemocraTic rooTs* Bonn Juego University of Jyväskylä, Finland [email protected] Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte led a phenomenal campaign to win the 2016 national election. During his first two years in power Duterte has become the protagonist and exemplar of a key new development – the social formation of a regime of authoritarian populism. Based on an analysis of news reports, public debates, survey results, and official policy documents from 2017, the article examines various features of this emergent regime and then illuminates the historical-institutional mechanisms that brought it about. The inquiry is predicated on an understanding that the old EDSA Republic’s liberal-democratic regime has been marked by intractable socio-economic crises since its installation in 1986. This triggered different political tendencies and trajectories that Duterte has been able to mould into a new mode of regulation and governance. The central discussion elucidates some of the significant features that constitute the process through which the new regime of authoritarian populism is taking shape. The conclusion highlights the mutually reinforcing features of the dying EDSA-type liberal democracy and the emerging Duterte-led authoritarian populism. This suggests that the former has been a spawning ground for the latter. 1. Introduction Philippine politics and governance took an eventful turn in 2017. It was the moment when the character of the administration of the new president, Rodrigo Duterte, came more sharply into focus. He had already assumed global prominence and a certain notoriety since he led a success- ful campaign in the 2016 national election – seeming to break decisively with his predecessor in both domestic and foreign policy, and revelling in a brash, non-conformist public persona. Among other things, the year follow- ing his election exhibited momentous developments that provide impor- * The different parts, ideas and arguments in this article have been presented and discussed in various forums and seminars since 2016 in the cities of Helsinki, Copenhagen, Tampere, Osaka, Stockholm, Vienna, and Oslo, as well as in a number of international media outlets. I thank the organizers and participants of these events, as well as my social media friends, for relevant discussions. I also thank the editors of Asia Maior and the two referees for their important suggestions and critical comments. I am grateful for the feedback and scholarly advice to Michelguglielmo Torri, Wolfgang Drechsler, Jacques Hersh, Ali Kadri, Johannes Dragsbaek Schmidt, Barry Gills, Jun Borras, Wolfram Schaffar, and Gareth Richards. Asia Maior, XXVIII / 2017 129 Bonn Juego tant insights into the current and future shape of the phenomenon of «pop- ulism» in the Philippines. A brief history of major political turning points in the Philippines in the last 50 years highlights a transition from authoritarianism to an osten- sible process of democratisation. Between 1972 and 1986, the country was under the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. This period of authoritarian- ism was sustained by martial law, and brought about a concentration of state power within grasp of the strongman himself and the plunder of national wealth for the Marcos family and its business cronies. The «People Power Revolution» of 1986 put an end to this Marcos-led autocratic era, installing the so-called «EDSA Republic». The new republic was characterised by the dominance of a different set of governing élites, led by President Cora- zon «Cory» Aquino (who came from a prominent landowning family), and underpinned by a new constitution that enshrined the political principles and institutions of liberal democracy.1 Put differently, the EDSA Republic resulted in the restoration of the power