Volume XI, Issue 4 u February 22, 2013 IN THIS ISSUE: briefs............................................................................................................................1 IF Syria is Attacked, WIll Iran Retaliate? By Nima Adelkah .............................................................................................................4 GAzan Jihadists Unite to Create New Operational Base in Sinai By Murad Batal al-Shishani ............................................................................................5 Hamadi Jebali Resigned on February 20 Red Berets, Green Berets: Can MAlI’S Divided MIlitary Restore Order and Stability? By Andrew McGregor ......................................................................................................7 Terrorism Monitor is a publication of The Jamestown Foundation. The ASSASSINATION SPARKS POLITICAL CRISIS IN TUNISIA Terrorism Monitor is designed to be read by policy-makers and Andrew McGregor other specialists yet be accessible to the general public. The opinions Tunisia’s political crisis deepened this week with the emergence of a split in the ruling expressed within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily Islamist Ennahda Party and the subsequent resignation of Ennahda Prime Minister reflect those of The Jamestown Hamadi Jebali on February 20. The split was the consequence of Jebali’s attempts to Foundation. form a new government of technocrats in the wake of the February 6 assassination of Chokri Belaid, the 48-year-old secretary general of opposition party al-Watad (the Unauthorized reproduction Movement of Democratic Patriots - MDP). or redistribution of this or any Jamestown publication is strictly prohibited by law. The assassination and the announcement soon after that Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali intended to form a new “apolitical government” of technocrats to replace the existing government created a rift within Ennahda, which had the most to lose from the proposal. Jebali is Ennahda’s secretary-general, but admits he did not consult the party before deciding on a new government: “The situation is difficult and urgent; there is a danger of violence. What can I consult about? I’m the head of the government. I could not wait” (Le Monde, February 11). Jebali, like Ennahda party leader Rachid Ghannouchi, was set on fast-tracking the new constitution in order to begin the first round of elections in July. At the time of his resignation it is estimated that Jebali had the For comments or questions about loyalty of less than 25 percent of Ennahda (Jeune Afrique, February 17). our publications, please send an email to [email protected], or contact us at: Ghannouchi denounced the proposed new government as being a way to “circumvent the legitimacy” of the electoral “victory” won by Ennahda (Tunisian Press Agency, 1111 16th St. NW, Suite #320 February 17). Ennahda took 89 of the 217 seats in Tunisia’s National Constituent Washington, DC • 20036 Assembly in the October, 2011 election. The Islamist party was far from forming a clear Tel: (202) 483-8888 majority in the elections, but succeeded in forming a government as senior partner in a Fax: (202) 483-8337 coalition with Mustapha ben Ja’afar’s Ettakatol party and President Moncef Marzouki’s Congress for the Republic. The three-party coalition is popularly known as “the Copyright ©2011 troika.” Ettakatol supported the formation of a government of technocrats (Tunisian TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TERRORISM MONITOR, VISIT http://www.jamestown.org TerrorismMonitor Volume XI u Issue 4 u February 22, 2013 Press Agency, February 17). Ennahda’s insistence on holding the security while we are governing? ... This attack is an all ministerial positions of importance is one of the most attempt to destroy the image of Ennahda, destabilize the important factors behind Tunisia’s current political turmoil. government, and bring Tunisia to the brink of civil war. The party is now seeking an Ennahda member to serve as a The attack is equivalent to a coup… The coup aimed to replacement for Jebali but has hinted it might be willing to drive the elected Ennahda ministers from the cabinet. On open up senior ministries to members of other parties. the very day of the attack the prime minister suggested appointing a government of technocrats. He has been The current crisis was sparked by the death of Chokri Belaid, driven into a corner by Belaid’s murder (Sueddeutsche who was assassinated by two gunmen outside his home on Zeitung [Munich], February 17). the morning of February 6 (see Terrorism Monitor Brief, February 8). Belaid’s colleagues claim that the well-known As Islamists pilloried Belaid before his death as a “saboteur critic of the ruling Islamist party was preparing to make public of the revolution” and “an agent of foreign powers,” the on February 15 various files he had built on the corruption Watad leader was personally warned of plots on his life by of a number of top government officials (Jeune Afrique, Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki, who has frequently February 17). Though no evidence has been provided to warned of violence by Islamist extremists in Tunisia (see substantiate the allegations, Ennahda has been widely Terrorism Monitor, November 30, 2012). Belaid’s assassins accused of orchestrating Belaid’s murder. Belaid’s family were not interfered with by the Interior Ministry, which has been especially vocal in its accusations of Ghannouchi had been warned of the threats, or the secret service, which and Ennahda, and on February 11, Belaid’s widow joined was similarly alerted and has responsibility for protecting thousands of demonstrators outside the National Assembly in opposition leaders as well as government leaders (Jeune calling for the resignation of the government (Jordan Times, Afrique, February 17). A memorial dedicated to Belaid was February 13). Ghannouchi and other Ennadha leaders were destroyed by unknown parties earlier this week (Tunisialive, told by Belaid’s family to stay away from the political leader’s February 18). funeral, as were representative of the other two parties in the coalition government. Only days before his death, Belaid had pointed out that the regime had given its approval to political violence by calling Ennadha responded by organizing marches of their for the release from prison of members of a pro-Ennahda supporters on February 15 and 16 to support the “legitimacy” militia (the league for the Protection of the Revolution) of the government and “express the unity of the movement” that were involved in the death of leading Nida Tounes party (Tunisian Press Agency, February 16). Speaking to a rally activist lotfi Naqdh (Jeune Afrique, February 17). The same of Salafists and Ennahda members on February 16, various militia is perceived as a prime suspect by many Tunisians in Islamist leaders denounced the formation of a government the murder of Belaid (al-Jazeera, February 16). of technocrats, claiming it was a “conspiracy against the electoral legitimacy” of the government (Tunisian Press Economic stagnation has helped provide a recruiting pool Agency, February 17). for extremists amongst Tunisia’s youth, who are typically well-educated but suffer from over 30% unemployment. Perhaps unconvincingly, Ghannouchi has attempted to Recruitment bonuses of as much as $27,000 for young men portray Ennahda as the real victim in the Belaid assassination: willing to perform jihad in Syria are very enticing compared “We believe that Belaid’s assassination is part of the conspiracy to the absence of prospects at home (Jeune Afrique, against the revolution and the coalition government led by February 13). A local report recently claimed that dozens Ennahda. We believe that these bullets were aimed at the of young Tunisians had been killed fighting for the Islamist Ennahda party, the revolution, and all those fighting for the Jabhat al-Nusrah and other insurgent groups when a Syrian revolution… There is a force that does not want any overlap government airstrike hit a concentration of Islamists near between democracy and Islam, or modernity and Islam, but the Aleppo airport, killing 132 fighters (Shams FM [Tunis], this will not affect us.” (al-Sharq al-Awsat, February 13). In February 13; al-Sharq al-Awsat, February 15). a recent interview with a German daily, Ghannouchi painted the murder as a “coup” designed to force Ennahda from power: The key question is: ‘Who profits from this crime?’ We, the Ennahda party, are the biggest loser because we are responsible for Tunisia’s security. Why should we harm 2 TerrorismMonitor Volume XI u Issue 4 u February 22, 2013 WAVE OF BOMBINGS FOLLOWS AL-QAEDA CALL post-Ba’athist state. FOR ATTACKS ON IRAQ’S SHIITE MAJORITY A statement of responsibility for the attacks was issued by the Andrew McGregor Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), an al-Qaeda-led coalition of Sunni jihadists. The statement assured Iraqis that the attacks were Following an appeal from an al-Qaeda front organization carried out by muwahidin (monotheists), as opposed to the calling on Iraqi Sunnis to take up arms against the nation’s Shiite “polytheists,” as they are known to Sunni extremists. Shiite majority, a series of devastating car bombings and The statement tries to tie the ISI to the broader and generally roadside explosions targeted the Shiite neighborhoods of peaceful Sunni anti-government demonstrations by claiming Baghdad on February 17, killing 26 people and wounding 119 the bombings were carried out in response to Shiite efforts to others. Four more car-bombs were discovered and defused “stop the spread of the protests, terrorize those participating by Baghdadi police the next day (al-Bayan [Baghdad], in them and prevent [the protests] from reaching Baghdad February 18; al-Sabah, February 18). and its Sunni belt.” [1] The blasts came a day after the February 16 assassination of a The ISI’s appeal to Iraq’s Sunnis was issued under the name of senior army intelligence officer, Brigadier General Awuni Ali, Shaykh Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the official spokesman and two of his aides by a suicide bomber in Mosul, one of ten of the Islamic State in Iraq.