WORLD BANK MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION MENA ECONOMIC MONITOR Refugee Crisis in MENA Meeting the Development Challenge October 2017 WORLD BANK GROUP WORLD BANK MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION MENA ECONOMIC MONITOR Refugee Crisis in MENA Meeting the Development Challenge World Bank Group Washington, DC © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 20 19 18 17 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1214-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1214-9 Cover photo: © UNHCR/Shawn Baldwin. Contents Acknowledgments v Abbreviations vii Recent Economic Developments and Prospects 1 Global Outlook 1 Developments in the Oil Market 2 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook for MENA 3 Economics of MENA: A Longer Term View 7 Refugee Crisis in MENA: Meeting the Development Challenge 9 Introduction 9 Why Is the Welfare of Refugees a Development Challenge? 11 Welfare of Refugees as a Global Public Good 11 Supporting Livelihoods for Refugees 12 What Are the Development Challenges and How Should They Be Tackled? 13 Four Interlinked Crises and Four Sets of Policy Responses 13 1. Education 13 2. Health 17 3. Jobs 21 4. Livelihoods 24 How Can the Development Community Do Better? 26 Interventions and Assistance 26 Resources 26 Burden-Sharing 28 Data and Monitoring 31 References 35 Country Notes 42 Boxes Box 2.1 Resettlement of Refugees in Third Countries 30 Box 2.2 Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF) 31 Figures Figure 1.1 Global Outlook 1 Figure 1.2 Developments in the Oil Market, 2013Q1–2017Q1 2 Figure 1.3 Macroeconomic Status of MENA 4 Figure 2.1 Distribution of Refugees across the 251 Most Vulnerable Localities in Lebanon 15 Figure 2.2 Enrollment Trends in Public Schools in Lebanon, 2011–17 16 Figure 2.3 Gross Official Development Assistance, 2013–15 27 Figure 2.4 Syrian Humanitarian Response, 2012–17 28 Tables Table 1.1 MENA’S Macroeconomic Outlook, 2014–19 5 Table 2.1 Status of Registered Syrian Refugees 19 Acknowledgments The MENA Economic Monitor is a product of the Chief Economist’s Office of the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank. The report was prepared by a team led by Lili Mottaghi, and including, Afrah Alawi Al-Ahmadi, Nabila Assaf, Philippe Auffret, Caroline Bahnson, Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali, Angela Elzir, Kent Garber, Yashodhan Ghorpade, Jan von der Goltz, Himanshi Jain, Omer Karasapan, Hideki Matsunaga, Aakanksha Pande, David Robalino, Friederike Uta Rother, Meriem Ait Ali Slimane, Sami Sofan, and Mohamed Yassine. The report was prepared under the overall guidance of Shanta Devarajan and Samia Msadek. We are grateful to Elena Ianchovichina, Omer Karasapan, Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, Hideki Matsunaga, Sajjad Ali Shah Sayed, and Christina Wood for providing comments on the earlier version of the report. Isabelle Chaal-Dabi and Eva Davoine provided excellent administrative and data support. Alicia Hetzner edited the report. The country notes are based on reports by the following Country Economists, led by Kevin Carey: Sara B. Alnashar, Luca Bandiera, Ibrahim Chowdhury, Khalid El Massnaoui, Nur Nasser Eddin, Wilfried Engelke, Wissam Harake, Sahar Hussain, Kamer Karakurum-Ozdemir, Majid Kazemi, Tehmina Khan, Christos Kostopoulos, Julie Lohi, Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, Harun Onder, Abdoulaye Sy, Fulbert Tchana Tchana, and Hoda Youssef. v Abbreviations ALMP active labor market program ALP Accelerated Learning Program CCT conditional cash transfer CDC United States Centers for Disease Control CFF Concessional Financing Facility CIREFCA International Conference on Assistance to Refugees in Central America CRRF Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework DAC Development Assistance Committee DAR Development Assistance for Refugees DLI Development through Local Integration ECD early childhood development ECE early childhood education EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 4Rs Repatriation, Reintegration, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction FD financial development FDI foreign direct investment GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GCFF Global Concessional Financing Facility GDP gross domestic product ICARA International Conference on Assistance to Refugees in Africa IDA International Development Association (World Bank group) IDP internally displaced person IEA International Energy Agency IFI international financial institution ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Daesh) KRI Kurdish Region of Iraq mbd million barrels per day MDG Millennium Development Goal MEHE Ministry of Education and Higher Education (Lebanon) MENA Middle East and North Africa Region (WBG) MILES Macroeconomic policy, investment climate, labor regulations, education, and social protection policies MOL Ministry of Labor vii NGO nongovernmental organization ODA Official development assistance (OECD/DAC) ODI Overseas Development Institute OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OOSC out-of-school children OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Oxfam Oxford Committee for Famine Relief PSSA Psychosocial Structured Activities REACH Consortium comprises IMPACT, ACTED, and UNOSAT RRP Refugee Response Plan (UNHCR) SME small and medium size enterprise SOE state-owned enterprise UAE United Arab Emirates UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNHCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT value-added tax WBG West Bank Group WDI World Development Indicators (World Bank) WDR World Development Report (WBG) WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization viii Recent Economic Developments and Prospects Global Outlook The recovery in global activity anticipated in the April MENA Economic Monitor is on track. The global economy is projected to grow by 2.9 percent over the next two years, up from 2.4 percent in 2016 (Figure 1.1). The uptick in global growth reflects strong domestic demand, improved industrial production, and increased exports in almost all countries (Figure 1.1, right panel). The recovery is led by a pickup in growth in advanced economies including the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan. Growth in East Asia and Pacific, Eastern Europe and Central Asia remains robust. Economic activity in commodity-exporting developing countries is accelerating, contributing to the global