Mudgee and Gulgong Urban Release Strategy Prepared for Mid-Western Regional Council December 14 Mudgee and Gulgong Urban Release Strategy QUALITY ASSURANCE Report Contacts LOUISE BOCHNER BSc (Macquarie), M. Urban & Regional Planning (USYD), MPIA Senior Consultant [email protected] Quality Control This document is for discussion purposes only unless signed and dated by a Principal of HillPDA. Reviewed by: ……………………………………………….. Dated: 18 December 2014 DAVID PARSELL M. Public Administration (USYD), M. Environmental Planning (Macquarie), B. Commerce (UTAS) Principal Planner and Practice Manager [email protected] Report Details Job Ref No: C14185 Version: Final Date Printed: 18/12/2014 Ref: C14185 HillPDA Page 2 | 113 Mudgee and Gulgong Urban Release Strategy CONTENTS Executive Summary .............................................................................. 7 1 Introduction ................................................................................. 21 Purpose of the Strategy ............................................................... 21 Strategy timeframe and Review .................................................. 21 Strategy Area ............................................................................... 21 Strategy Methodology ................................................................. 25 Land Supply Monitor ................................................................... 26 2 Demographic Trends ................................................................... 27 Population.................................................................................... 27 Age Distribution ........................................................................... 33 Household Characteristics ........................................................... 35 Dwelling Characteristics .............................................................. 37 Summary of Key Findings ............................................................ 39 3 Residential Market Snapshot ....................................................... 40 Existing Housing Market .............................................................. 40 Existing Rental Market ................................................................. 43 Development Activity .................................................................. 44 Housing Affordability ................................................................... 45 Summary of Key Findings ............................................................ 48 4 Land and Dwelling Supply ............................................................ 50 Factors Affecting Supply .............................................................. 50 Identification of Land with Strategic Value ................................. 51 Rezoning of Land ......................................................................... 51 Development Approvals .............................................................. 53 Snapshot of Available Residential Lots ........................................ 57 Summary of Current Capacity...................................................... 57 Temporary workers accommodation .......................................... 60 5 Land and Dwelling Demand ......................................................... 61 Factors Affecting Demand ........................................................... 61 Projected Demand for Dwellings ................................................. 63 Comparison of Three Demand Approaches ................................ 66 Summary of Key Findings ............................................................ 68 6 Gap Analysis ................................................................................. 71 Mudgee ....................................................................................... 71 Gulgong ....................................................................................... 71 7 Infrastructure ............................................................................... 73 Water Supply ............................................................................... 73 Sewerage Supply .......................................................................... 74 Roads ....................................................................................... 75 Waste ....................................................................................... 75 8 Environmental Constraints and Land Suitability ......................... 76 Topography .................................................................................. 76 Flood Prone Land ......................................................................... 76 Groundwater Vulnerability .......................................................... 76 Visually Sensitive Land ................................................................. 77 Sensitive Biodiversity ................................................................... 77 Agricultural Land .......................................................................... 78 Ref: C14185 HillPDA Page 3 | 113 Mudgee and Gulgong Urban Release Strategy Bushfire Hazard ........................................................................... 78 Land Suitability Methodology ...................................................... 79 9 Land Release Strategy .................................................................. 81 Guiding Principles ........................................................................ 81 Recommendations ....................................................................... 82 Mudgee Urban Release Areas ..................................................... 83 Gulgong Urban Release Areas ................................................... 102 Appendix A: Mudgee maps .............................................................. 108 Appendix B: Gulgong maps .............................................................. 109 Appendix C: Location of Current Estates ......................................... 110 Appendix D: High Resolution Maps .................................................. 111 TABLES Table 1 - Mudgee: Existing Lot Supply Capacity vs. Future 20 Year Demand (2015- 2035) .......................................................................................................................... 12 Table 2 - Gulgong: Existing Lot Supply Capacity vs. Future 20 Year Demand ............. 13 Table 3 - Mudgee – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for General Residential Lots (400-1000sqm) ........................................................................................................... 15 Table 4 - Mudgee – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for Low Density Residential Lots (2000-4000sqm) .................................................................................................. 15 Table 5 - Mudgee – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for Large Lot Residential (2ha and over) ............................................................................................................ 16 Table 6 - HillPDA Recommendations for Mudgee's Urban Release Areas and Lot Projections (2015-2035) ............................................................................................. 17 Table 7 - Gulgong – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for General Residential Lots (400-1000sqm) ........................................................................................................... 18 Table 8 - Gulgong – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for Low Density Residential Lots (2000sqm) ........................................................................................................... 19 Table 9 - Gulgong – Supply, Demand and Pipeline Buffer for Large Lot Residential (2ha and over) ............................................................................................................ 19 Table 10 - HillPDA Recommendations for Gulgong's Urban Release Areas and Lot Projections (2015-2035) ............................................................................................. 20 Table 11 - Population Size (1991-2011) ...................................................................... 27 Table 12 - Population Growth (1991-2011) ................................................................ 27 Table 13 - Share of Population Growth (1991-2011) .................................................. 28 Table 14 - Population Growth Rate (1991-2011) ........................................................ 28 Table 15 - DP&E Population Projections (2011-2031) ................................................ 29 Table 16 - Forecast Employment in New Mines in MWRC LGA .................................. 29 Table 17 - Additional Population Generated by New Mining Activity (2011-2031).... 31 Table 18 - HillPDA Population Projections (2011-2031) ............................................. 31 Table 19 - Mudgee - Population Projection Comparison (2011-2031) ....................... 31 Table 20 - Gulgong - Population Projection Comparison............................................ 32 Table 21 - Annual Population Growth Rate Comparison (2011-2031) ....................... 33 Table 22 - Median Age (2001-2011) ........................................................................... 33 Table 23 - Age Distribution (2011).............................................................................. 35 Table 24 - Household Size (2001-2011) ...................................................................... 35 Ref: C14185 HillPDA Page 4 | 113 Mudgee and Gulgong Urban Release Strategy