Medium-Duty AFV Trucks Tom Brotherton, CALSTART May 21, 2014 Copyright 2014 CALSTART Agenda » CALSTART Background » A World of Change » The Options Landscape for Medium-Duty » Natural Gas (gaseous fuel) » Biodiesel » Electric » Hybrid (including Plug in) » Conclusions 2 Copyright 2014 CALSTART CALSTART is a national, non-profit, clean transportation organization. Mission: Support and expand clean transportation technology industry Tech and fuel neutral Goals: • Create high-quality jobs; • Clean the air; • Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and • Reduce global warming emissions Copyright 2014 CALSTART What CALSTART Does Actions: TECH: Develop, manage and validate technology via Role: projects Speed Mission: POLICY: Develop policies Support and development, validation and to support clean expand clean transportation development transportation use of clean and use industry transportation systems USE: Help fleets and others choose and use clean transportation SUPPORT: Provide members access to opportunities, connections, info, trends Copyright 2014 CALSTART CALSTART Members. Making Clean Transportation Happen. Join Today. PARTIAL LISTING Copyright 2014 CALSTART CALSTART National Offices New York Nor Cal Office Office Colorado Office Midwest Office CALSTART HQ Copyright 2014 CALSTART Smart Incentives to Move the Market: States-Regions Leading » Chicago has $11.3M electric truck voucher; $1.4M NG/Elec infrastructure; $1.3M Green Taxi (NG) » California invested >$60M in voucher program for hybrid and electric trucks; has a parallel program for NGVs www.californiahvip.org » New York $19M voucher program for hybrid, electric and NG trucks Copyright 2014 CALSTART Changing World, Increasing Pressures » GLOBAL WARMING – Dangers more clear; push to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy – » Passenger cars on path to 54.6 mpg: New fuel economy rules for med & heavy trucks coming » Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact; Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG impact; Modal split (transit and rail) has long term role » ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS – Traditional fuel supplies more expensive » The need for alt and biofuels is increasing » Huge supply of low cost NA natural gas from new production (hydrofracturing) » Regional fuel variation and choice becoming more prevalent » EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS – New Ozone rules likely for US, could double number of regions in non-attainment » Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion » Diesel fuel still challenged in dirtiest regions (ports, Southern California) Copyright 2014 CALSTART Latest Climate Change Report: North America Now Feeling Impacts » Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability » Key Finding: “Many climate stresses that carry risk – particularly related to severe heat, heavy precipitation and declining snowpack – will increase in frequency and/or severity in North America in the next decades (very high confidence).” http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap26_FGDall.pdf Copyright 2014 CALSTART President’s Truck Fuel Economy Announcement Feb 2014 • New “Phase 2” truck fuel economy rules under development • Draft rules March 2015 • Final rules March 2016 • Vocational and long haul Copyright 2014 CALSTART Urban Smog Still a Challenge » EPA likely to enact tougher standards on ozone (urban smog) » Drop from 75 ppm to 65-70 ppm based on health impacts » New rules had been delayed from 2008 when proposed » Could double US regions in non- attainment From Dallas Morning News Copyright 2014 CALSTART Efficiency Remains Driver » Light duty adding improved combustion, turbocharging, multi-speed transmissions, aerodynamic features to cars and trucks – based on new Fed CAFE » In big rigs, tractor and trailer aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires are current focus – but next gen includes turbo-compounding, thermal energy recovery, idle reduction » In vocational trucks, some hybrid and electric options, big interest in natural gas (for price rather than efficiency) » More stringent truck standard under development Copyright 2014 CALSTART For Fleets: Many Options to Consider Fuels Technologies Strategies Ethanol: avail now; regional; Adv. Engine/Powertrain: cylinder Fleet driver process and feedstock on demand; improved combustion;; training/ eco- improving; small CO2 gain but turbocharging; transmissions driving growing Hybrid: models of ALL types Telematics Propane: vehicle models including start-stop expanding in available; special fueling; LD; OEM production in MD/HD and Platform/engine small CO2 gains prices dropping; 20-50% size reduction: Natural gas: low price, high carbon/fuel reduction “right-sizing” production/jobs; controversy on platforms Electric: LD products expanding, production; limited multiple makers; MD products Dispatch infrastructure but expanding; emerging for delivery/ urban niche CO2 benefits; Biomethane changes, work changes to Biodiesel: feedstock Plug-in hybrid: first LD products reduce/optimize available; first pilot products in concerns; CO2 gains; NOx vehicle use issue M/HD; business case varies based Renewable diesel: on fuel prices; strong policy support Routing emerging option efficiencies: Hydrogen: longer term Fuel Cell: still early demos; limited VMT reduction option; transit; blending testing; some deployments 2015? Copyright 2014 CALSTART Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel » Volumes still low but production and use increasing though incentives lapsed – some impact from feedstock switching to produce ethanol, drought » Most OEMs accepting increased biodiesel use – fuel spec has now been developed for B1-B20 levels » Little or no performance drop off from conventional diesel; some operating concerns (such as cold weather) » Reduced greenhouse gases and particulates from diesel Copyright 2014 CALSTART Ethanol, Biodiesel Shares Copyright 2014 CALSTART Natural Gas » Growth of natural gas continues » 2:1 price differential over diesel remaining relatively steady » But, Growing concern over fracking, methane leakage » Fleets have several OEM pickup and van options » ALL medium and heavy-duty OEMs now offer natural gas (Freightliner, Mack, Volvo, Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar) » Slow down in new engines coming available for trucks » Growth beginning in line haul applications; Niches remain strong (transit, refuse, ports); » Infrastructure still barrier, though fuel partners available and corridors are growing Copyright 2014 CALSTART Cummins-Westport Product Line B Gas Plus ISB6.7 G C Gas Plus ISL G ISX12 G • 5.9 Liter • 6.7 Liter • 8.3 Liter • 8.9 Liter • 11.9 Liter • 150-230 hp • 200-260 hp • 250-280 hp • 250-320 hp • 320-400 hp • Euro 5, EEV • EPA 2013, Euro • Euro 3, 4 • EPA 2013 • EPA 2013 6 • Euro 5 by 2014 • Euro 5, EEV • Introduced •Introduced in • CARB • Launched in 2000 • Development 2005 Certified in 2013 starting 2012; 2007, 2015 launch launched 2008 All engines use simple, passive, maintenance-free exhaust aftertreatment. Copyright 2014 CALSTART Natural Gas: Compelling Long Term Fuel » New “fracking” tech allows economical access to natural gas » Current and future production projected to outstrip demand » US has some of the largest NG reserves in the world » Fleets seek price certainty & stability Copyright 2014 CALSTART Natural Gas Pump Price Low Price Volatility A doubling of the price of natural gas increases prices at the pump only $0.50 per GGE Copyright 2014 CALSTART Fracking – Expect More Controls » Hydraulic fracturing used to extract natural gas (and oil) has greatly expanded nation’s supply but is under increasing scrutiny » EPA report due out this year Copyright 2014 CALSTART Methane Leakage – Growing Concern » Science published study in Feb, EDF studies underway looking at methane leakage in production, use of natural gas » Methane a very potent greenhouse gas » If leaks are major, could negate climate benefits Copyright 2014 CALSTART Ultra Low Emitting Engines in Development » Cummins and Cummins-Westport developing next generation low NOx NG engines – 50% or lower than 2010 EPA » Cummins building 15 liter development engine; Cummins-Westport improving an 8.9 liter engine » Demonstration by 2015 » California needs even lower NOx emissions than current EPA engine standards – 80% lower by 2030! Copyright 2014 CALSTART Electric Technology – Many Options » Medium-duty all-electric trucks available in North America, new players emerging but market slow at moment; Smith Trucks, EVI, Boulder, AMP, Motiv, Orange EV, Trans Tech Bus, Zero truck » Increased petroleum prices makes an improving business case in right applications » Criteria and GHG emissions very low; varies depending on fuel source of power plants, each region different » However: powerplant emissions improving over time everywhere Copyright 2014 CALSTART Electric Trucks – Assessment Underway » First models out and in service » Fleets evaluating for performance, business case » New suppliers entering market Copyright 2014 CALSTART Chicago E-truck and E-bus Incentives » Six-county metro area » Incentive tied to battery pack size: $15,000 + $375 x kWh Examples: 40 kWh = $30,000 100 kWh = $52,500 300 kWh = $127,500 Copyright 2014 CALSTART Web Site: drivecleanchicago.com Copyright 2014 CALSTART Smith Electric Vehicles Smith Newton Chicago Incentives: $37,500 (60 kWh) - $60,000 (120 kWh) Copyright 2014 CALSTART Boulder Electric Vehicle BEV 500: Delivery van, shuttle bus, flatbed, service body Chicago Incentive: $37,500 Copyright 2014 CALSTART AMP e-100 and Repower Program » Walk in van EV » Workhorse chassis »