STUDY GUIDE SEASON 4, EPISODE 5 (S04, E05) Tackling Uncertainty - Conversation with Dr. Margaret Heffernan Podcast Episode Notes: Uncertainty is a crucial issue in the COVID-19 pandemic and with other ongoing issues such as climate change, disasters, systemic injustice, the future of younger generations, etc. Join renowned author and speaker, Dr. Margaret Heffernan and Multi-Hazards podcast host Vin Nelsen as they discuss uncertainty and the incredible findings from Margaret’s latest book, Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future. Have a listen! Margaret Heffernan’s Bio Dr. Margaret Heffernan produced programmes for the BBC for 13 years. She then moved to the US where she spearheaded multimedia productions for Intuit, The Learning Company and Standard&Poors. She was Chief Executive of InfoMation Corporation, ZineZone Corporation and then iCast Corporation, was named one of the "Top 25" by Streaming Media magazine and one of the "Top 100 Media Executives" by The Hollywood Reporter. The author of six books, Margaret’s third book, Willful Blindness : Why We Ignore the Obvious at our Peril was named one of the most important business books of the decade by the Financial Times. In 2015, she was awarded the Transmission Prize for A Bigger Prize: Why Competition isn’t Everything and How We Do Better, described as "meticulously researched... engagingly written... universally relevant and hard to fault." Her TED talks have been seen by over twelve million people and in 2015 TED published Beyond Measure: The Big Impact of Small Changes. Her most recent book, Uncharted: How to map the future was published in 2020. She is a Professor of Practice at the University of Bath, Lead Faculty for the Forward Institute’s Responsible Leadership Programme and, through Merryck & Co., mentors CEOs and senior executives of major global organizations. She holds an honorary doctorate from the University of Bath and continues to write for the Financial Times and the Huffington Post. Text and photo taken from her website: https://www.mheffernan.com/biography.php#modal-close 1 Introduction to Uncharted: How to Navigate the Future (2020): How can we think about the future? What do we need to do - and who do we need to be? We are addicted to prediction, desperate for certainty about the future. But the complexity of modern life won’t provide that; experts in forecasting are reluctant to look more than 400 days out. History doesn’t repeat itself and even genetics won’t tell you everything you want to know. Ineradicable uncertainty is now a fact of life. In complex environments, efficiency is a hazard not a help; being robust is the better, safer option. Drawing on a wide array of people and places, Margaret Heffernan looks at long-term projects developed over generations that could never have been planned the way that they have been run. Experiments, led by individuals and nations, discover new possibilities and options. Radical exercises in forging new futures with wildly diverse participants allow everyone to create outcomes together that none could do alone. Existential crises reveal the vital social component in resilience. Death is certain, but how we approach it impacts the future of those we leave behind. And preparedness - doing everything today that you might need for tomorrow - provides the antidote to passivity and prediction. Ranging freely through history and from business to science, government to friendships, this refreshing book challenges us to resist the false promises of technology and efficiency and instead to mine our own creativity and humanity for the capacity to create the futures we want and can believe in. Taken from the book’s introduction and this webpage: https://www.mheffernan.com/book-uncharted.php Study Guide Questions: Please Note: Timing (minutes and seconds) are"roughly" correct, meaning around the time indicated. Photo by Griffin Wooldridge on Unsplash 4 minutes - How has Dr. Margaret Heffernan been doing during this pandemic? 4:30 - The Uncharted book is a great hit. Explain. Link: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/56898092-uncharted?ac=1&from_search=true&qid= O7KAm4CZer&rank=2 2 Multi-Hazards host Vin Nelsen thanks Dr. Margaret Heffernan for writing Uncharted, since it was his winter reading during this hard pandemic. How did the book help Vin? 5:50 - How has Margaret been coping through this crazy pandemic? 7:00 - Why and how is Margaret an optimist? 7:35 - How does Margaret define "uncertainty"? Photo by Devin Avery on Unsplash 9:30 - Why did Margaret feel it was important to discuss this issue these past couple years? 10:25 - Many things, such as life after Trump or Brexit, etc. are unknowable. So, why then do we ask experts for their opinions about the future? Why do the "askers" think anyone knows the future? 11:00 - What's Philip E. Tetlock's research in The Good Judgment Project? What did he find out about future predictions? Link: https://goodjudgment.com/about/ 12:15 - Why does our planning need to change? How? What is forecasting? What did Margaret discover about it? 13:50 - Is uncertainty necessarily "bad" or can it be "good"? How can uncertainty represent possibility? 15:15 - What is agency? How does this relate to our life choices? 16:00 - How can uncertainty make us feel uncomfortable or even terrified? 16:40 - Host Vin Nelsen watched a Korean movie called "Seo Bok". How did it discuss the future? Links: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13316722/ https://asianwiki.com/Seobok_(Korean_Movie) and 3 https://www.bangkokpost.com/life/arts-and-entertainment/2099979/exploring-immortality-an d-the-value-of-life These websites state that the movie's premise comes from "the story of Chinese explorer Xu Fu, known as Seobok in Korean. In those days, Chinese Emperor Qin Shi Huang had ordered Xu Fu to sail east in search of the elixir of life." 18:00 - Who wants to live forever? Nobody. Explain. What is transhumanism? 19:40 - Living "forever" may cause trauma after trauma due to loss. Explain. 20:15 - Why is life so precious? What are the studies on aging by Stanford psychologist Laura Carstensen? Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3332527/ 21:00 - Why does Margaret want transhumanists to spend all their money addressing climate change instead of eternal life? 21:45 - In our lives, there are many (usually rich and famous) who predict certain trends etc that are inevitable, e.g. online shopping will trump all else, driverless cars, Peak Oil, AI will do everything, disappearance of jobs, China will take over the world, the American empire will collapse, etc.. In Uncharted Chapter 1 - "False Profits," Margaret mentioned that no, these are not inevitable. How does she explain this in the podcast? Why is this certainty in inevitability so dangerous? 22:35 - What's propaganda in the context of this conversation? Why are driverless cars a problem? Photo by Luís Eusébio on Unsplash 24:35 - Who's trying to sell what to whom and why? Why is this question important? Why is this an attempt by corporations to bully the public and deprive us of choice? Why does Margaret call this "the ugly face of PR (public relations)"? 4 25:25 - Margaret says that history does NOT repeat itself. What does she mean? 28:15 - What does the Northern Ireland Peace Accord have to do with this? 29:50 - How can viewing the past differently help us reimagine the future? 30:40 - In Heather McGhee's 2020 book The Sum of Us she has a chapter connecting racism and the union movement. What was the big dream of fast food workers mentioned there? Links: https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/heather-mcghee-fearmongers-wage-war-15-article-1.2 341069 and: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53231851-the-sum-of-us?ac=1&from_search=true&q id=qP8QMu9ZB6&rank=1 31:40 - What is the "doctrine of inevitability"? 32:30 - Technology: It seems technology has given us fewer choices, or at least the feeling that there are fewer choices:- At the start, wow! So many choices! Like a kid in a candy shop.Then, disappointment: whatever's out there seems to be either a scam or a dead end! We travel to a city, and are limited to only the places with good reviews. We're unwilling to explore. The same goes for movies, musicals, university professors, and so many other aspects of life. Does Margaret think that this is a vicious cycle leading nowhere or is it valuable? 34:45 - What's Margaret's experience with a new bicycle? 36:15 - If we don't use our skills, we will lose them. Explain. Photo by Mehmet Goren on freeimages.com 37:10 - Every technology makes us lose something. Explain. How can we overcome or mitigate this? 37:45 - What does it mean "to rebel", in the context of this conversation? What are the examples host Vin Nelsen offers about job search or dating websites? 38:30 - What does it mean, to do something "old school"? 5 38:55 - Why does Margaret think that we should meet people different from ourselves? Why was she surprised about her students last week in the MBA (Master's of Business Administration) class? 40:15 - Margaret says our differences are the very things we have to share with one another. Explain. 41:10 - Why are artists better at unpredictability? 43:00 - What are some myths about artists that Margaret dispels? 43:35 - Why do artists keep producing things that are ahead of their time? 45:30 - How are scientists sometimes like artists? Several elements on the Periodic Table were discovered by accident. Explain. 46:25 - What is the movement in the United Kingdom to organise the sciences better so as to increase efficiency? Why doesn't Margaret think this will be helpful? 47:00 - What generates breakthroughs in science? 47:50 - What does Margaret mean by "you have to invest in the ecosystem as a whole"? 48:20 - The global COVID-19 vaccine making movement is a first in history.