Growth Potential of Towns in the Western Cape (2004) A research study undertaken fot the Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning of the Western Cape Provincial Government by: CENTRE FOR GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS UNIVERSITY OF STELLENBOSCH PROJECT LEADER: Prof IJ van der Merwe RESEARCH TEAM: Ms AJ Davids (University of Stellenbosch) Dr S Ferreira (University of Stellenbosch) Mr GP Swart (Urban Dynamics Western Cape) Prof HL Zietsman (University of Stellenbosch) i FOREWORD Linked to the Western Cape’s vision of a ‘Home for All’ and the iKapa Elilhumayo strategy for growing and developing the Western Cape, my Department’s role is to create a Sustainable Home For All – Now and Forever. Drafting the Western Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (WCPSDF) has been our major contribution to the iKapa strategies. This Framework is aligned to the National Spatial Development Perspective (NSDP) published by the President’s Office in 2003, which suggests inter alia that Provinces determine the potential for economic growth and human need in towns in the Provinces. Where potential for economic growth is found infrastructure investment is required and where human need is great but economic potential low, social investment in enabling people to participate in alternative labour markets, is essential. Thus it became necessary to understand the potential and challenges of the Western Cape which led us to undertake a scientific study into the Growth Potential of Towns in the Western Cape. During March 2004 the Centre for Geographic Analysis at the University of Stellenbosch was appointed for this task. The information in this document is the result of thorough and careful analysis of the towns outside the City of Cape Town. As the City has been extensively studied, it was excluded from this exercise. The information was collected through direct contact with the towns. The qualitative research undertaken through interviews augmented the quantitative research collated through layers of indicators. The results may at first glance be controversial but they should be carefully examined as they emerge from extensive interaction with key LOCAL roleplayers. Readers are invited to study the document carefully and to contact my Department should any explanation or clarification of issues be required. As much as areas with the potential to grow will receive the attention and support of government for improved economic infrastructure, the people in dire need in declining areas will receive attention and support from government for social development and poverty alleviation. The central message of the report, as argued in the NSDP, is that infrastructural investment should be concentrated in towns with growth potential, while the people in towns in decline should be assisted through social investment. It should be noted that no attempt has been made to rank the towns in terms of priority for investment. Instead the towns have been divided into two categories / typologies, with the listing of the towns in each category done alphabetically. Although this study may be used in its own right, it is an informant to our Western Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework which makes provision for a much broader sustainable development approach to the Province’s growth path. Furthermore, I would encourage municipalities to take the findings of this study further by doing a similar study at a municipal level. ii I am pleased to introduce the Growth Potential Study of Towns in the Western Cape and its findings to our colleagues in national Departments and State Owned Enterprises, to my colleagues and the heads of departments in the Province, to councillors and officials in municipalities, to our social partners and to the general public. TASNEEM ESSOP PROVINCIAL MINISTER FOR ENVIRONMENT, PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT iii CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY………………………………………………………………….vii CHAPTER 1: Setting the scene............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Context of the study ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 The research brief and objectives............................................................................... 2 1.3 Research procedures................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Structure of the report ................................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 2: A theoretical framework for town development ............................................ 9 2.1 Literature review ........................................................................................................ 9 2.1.1 The role of small towns in regional development.............................................. 9 2.1.2 Factors influencing growth and development of towns ................................... 13 2.2 Relevant policy documents ...................................................................................... 18 2.3 Urban ranking according to growth criteria ............................................................. 27 2.4 A final set of multi-dimensional growth criteria...................................................... 29 CHAPTER 3: THE DATA MATRIX FOR AN URBAN TYPOLOGY............................ 31 3.1 Selection of towns .................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Selection and derivation of quantitative indicators.................................................. 34 3.2.1 Natural resources index.................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Human resources index .................................................................................... 38 3.2.3 Transportation and communications index ...................................................... 39 3.2.4 Institutional services index............................................................................... 40 3.2.5 Economic sectors index.................................................................................... 40 3.2.6 Commercial services index .............................................................................. 42 3.2.7 Market potential index ..................................................................................... 43 3.2.8 Regional vitality index ..................................................................................... 44 3.2.9 Human development needs index .................................................................... 45 3.2.10 Composite indices ............................................................................................ 46 3.3 Presenting the quantitative town profiles................................................................. 46 3.4 Qualitative town evaluation ..................................................................................... 71 3.4.1 The rationale..................................................................................................... 71 3.4.2 The questionnaire ............................................................................................. 72 3.4.3 The local interview........................................................................................... 72 3.4.4 Presenting the qualitative town profiles........................................................... 73 iv CHAPTER 4: THE MESSAGE FROM THE TOWN PROFILES..................................... 75 4.1 Integrating the quantitative and qualitative indicators ............................................. 75 4.2 Observations and interpretation of town profiles..................................................... 84 4.2.1 The general impression .................................................................................... 84 4.2.2 A focus on individual town profiles................................................................. 86 4.2.2.1 TOWNS WITH A ‘Very High’ Development Potential.............................. 87 4.2.2.2 TOWNS WITH A ‘High’ Development Potential....................................... 95 4.2.2.3 TOWNS WITH A ‘Very Low’ Development Potential............................. 111 4.2.2.4 Towns with ‘Very HIGH’ HUMAN NEEDS ............................................ 129 4.3 An investment typology ......................................................................................... 132 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................... 139 5.1 Salient research results........................................................................................... 139 5.2 Recommendations .................................................................................................. 142 LITERATURE CONSULTED .............................................................................................. 144 v FIGURES Figure 1.1: The research agenda................................................................................................ 8 Figure 3.1: Western Cape towns and municipalities................................................................ 33 Figure 3.2: Star diagrams of town profiles .............................................................................. 61 Figure 3.3: Town ranking: Composite resource potential index.............................................. 62 Figure 3.4: Town ranking: Composite infrastructure and services index................................ 63 Figure 3.5: Town ranking: Composite