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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Central Asia and Its Asian Neighbors Security and Commerce at the Crossroads Rollie Lal Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lal, Rollie. Central Asia and its Asian neighbors : security and commerce at the crossroads / Rollie Lal. p. cm. “MG-440.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3878-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Asia, Central—Relations—Asia. 2. Asia—Relations—Asia, Central. 3. Asian cooperation. 4. Asia—Relations—United States. 5. United States—Relations—Asia. I. Title. DS33.4.A783L35 2006 327.7305—dc22 2005031207 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photograph by Rollie Lal © Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Surgut Kirov Ob’ Russia Izhevsk Tomsk Tyumen' Kama Irtysh Tobol Novosibirsk Ufa Omsk Penza Chelyabinsk Barnaul Samara Petropavl Volga Magnitogorsk Esil Qostanay Koksnetau Ural Katun’ Pavlodar Oral Esil Astana Oskemen Zhayyq Aqtobe Arqalyq Oaraghandy Ayagoz Zaysan Atyrau Shalqar Kazakhstan Zhezqazghan Balqash Aral Beyneu Lepsi Leke Taldygorghan Balkhash Aral Qyzylorda lle Yining Caspian Aqtau Sea Sea Shu Almaty Syrdariya Nukus Kuqa Bishkek Shymkent Dashhowuz Uzbekistan Urganch Tashkent Kyrgyzstan Tarim He Baku Turkmenbashi Khujand Osh Turkmenistan Bukhoro Samarqand Charjew Qarshi Dushanbe Ashgabat China Amu Darya Tajikistan Mary Tehran Mashhad Mazar-e Sharif 0 200 400 km 0 200 400 miles Iran Kabul Herat Afghanistan Islamabad Yazd Pakistan Qandahar India Central Asia Preface The countries of Central Asia are greatly influenced by their Asian neighbors. Much analysis has been put forth on the issue of the rela- tions between the Central Asian states and Russia, but the countries to the south and east, including China, Iran, Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan, also have a powerful but less understood effect on the Cen- tral Asian states’ security and economic interests.1 This monograph assesses the mutual interests of the Central Asian states and their Asian neighbors, and considers the implications of these interests for the United States. It also looks at the role of rela- tions between the states of the region in this context, and at the role of multinational organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Or- ganization (SCO). This monograph should be of interest to policy- makers and analysts involved in international security and U.S. for- eign policy. The analysis in this monograph is informed by a yearlong re- search effort, which included travel to the region and extensive inter- views with U.S., regional, and global specialists; government officials; and others. It involved a multidisciplinary team of researchers who sought to combine their understanding of politics, economics, and military strategic analysis to bring fresh perspectives to the questions at hand. This monograph is one of several reporting the results of the re- search effort. Other documents address political structures and par- ____________ 1 See Burghart and Sabonis-Helf (2004); Oliker and Shlapak (2005). v vi Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads ticipation; religion, ethnicity, and clans; and economic development. In addition, a broad overview monograph, U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles, draws on the material in all of these assessments to define future requirements and approaches to the region. Each of these will be published separately, forthcoming from RAND. The research reported here was sponsored by AF/XOX and con- ducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. Comments are welcome and may be directed to the authors and to Andrew Hoehn, director of Project AIR FORCE’s (PAF’s) Strategy and Doctrine Program. Until late 2003, the then- director of PAF’s Strategy and Doctrine program, Dr. Edward Harshberger, provided leadership and support. Research for this re- port was completed in May 2005. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Central Asia...................................................... Frontispiece Preface ....................................................................... v Summary.................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ......................................................... xiii Abbreviations ............................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction .................................................................1 CHAPTER TWO China ........................................................................3 China’s Uighur Minority ....................................................4 Regional Cooperation........................................................6 The U.S. Role................................................................9 CHAPTER THREE Iran......................................................................... 11 Regional Cooperation...................................................... 13 The U.S. Role.............................................................. 16 CHAPTER FOUR Afghanistan ................................................................ 19 The U.S. Role.............................................................. 22 vii viii Central Asia and Its Neighbors: Security and Commerce at the Crossroads CHAPTER FIVE Pakistan.................................................................... 23 The U.S. Role.............................................................. 27 CHAPTER SIX India ....................................................................... 29 Regional Cooperation...................................................... 30 The U.S. Role.............................................................. 34 CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusions: Implications for U.S. Interests ............................. 35 Bibliography ............................................................... 37 Summary The Asian states neighboring Central Asia have historic links and strong interests in the region. China, Iran, Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan are critical players in the security and economic issues that will determine the future of Central Asia and affect U.S. interests in the region. All of these states are of importance to the United States, whether due to the war on terrorism, economic ties, arms control, nonproliferation, or other reasons. China, Iran, and India have all