City of Belleville 2018 Municipal Comprehensive Review of Urban Serviced Area April 11, 2019 Draft Report In association with: Plaza Three, 101-2000 Argentia Rd. Mississauga, Ontario Canada L5N 1V9 Phone: (905) 272-3600 Fax: (905 272-3602 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Page Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... (i) 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 What is a Municipal Comprehensive Review? ........................................ 1-2 1.3 Study Process ......................................................................................... 1-2 2. Overview of Macro-Economic Outlook and Regional Employment Trends ....... 2-1 2.1 Trends in Provincial Economy ................................................................ 2-1 2.2 Labour Force Trends .............................................................................. 2-3 2.2.1 Regional Labour Force Trends, Hastings County, 2001 to 2016 ............................................................................................. 2-3 2.2.2 City of Belleville, Labour Force by Place of Work, 2001 to 2016 ............................................................................................. 2-4 2.3 Education Attainment .............................................................................. 2-5 2.4 City of Belleville Commuting Trends ....................................................... 2-6 2.5 City of Belleville Employment and Non-Residential Development Trends ..................................................................................................... 2-7 2.5.1 City of Belleville Employment Trends by Place of Work ............... 2-7 2.5.2 Industry Clusters in Belleville ..................................................... 2-10 2.5.3 Non-residential Building Permit Activity ...................................... 2-11 2.6 Observations ......................................................................................... 2-13 3. Demographic and Housing Trends within the City of Belleville and the Surrounding Market Area .................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Hastings County Historical Demographic Trends ................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Hastings County Historical Net Migration Trends by Type ........... 3-1 3.1.2 Hastings County Historical Net Migration Trends by Age ............. 3-4 3.2 Review of Recent Demographic Trends, City of Belleville ...................... 3-5 3.2.1 Historical Population Trends, 1991 to 2016 ................................. 3-5 3.2.2 City of Belleville Components of Population Growth, 1991 to 2016 ............................................................................................. 3-7 3.3 Review of Recent Housing Trends, City of Belleville ............................ 3-10 3.3.1 Historical Residential Building Permit Activity by Dwelling Type for the City of Belleville, 2006 to 2017 ............................... 3-11 3.3.2 Residential Building Permit Activity by Structure Type, 2002 to 2016 ....................................................................................... 3-13 3.2.3 Housing Headship Rates, 1991 to 2016 ..................................... 3-17 3.2.4 Persons Per Housing Unit, 1991 to 2016 ................................... 3-18 3.2.5 Historical Housing Propensity Trends by Structure Type, 2016 ........................................................................................... 3-19 3.2.6 Historical Trends in Housing Prices and Housing Affordability, 2006 to 2016 ......................................................... 3-20 3.4 Observations ......................................................................................... 3-21 4. Policy Context .................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 A Changing Policy Framework ................................................................ 4-1 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Belleville\Comprehensive Review 2017\Report\City of Belleville MCR Draft Report Revised April 10.docx 4.2.1 The Planning Act .......................................................................... 4-1 4.2.2 The Provincial Policy Statement................................................... 4-3 4.2.3 Consistency in Official Plans ........................................................ 4-4 4.3 City of Belleville Official Plan .................................................................. 4-4 4.3.1 General Comments from M.M.A.H. .............................................. 4-5 4.3.2 Specific Comments from M.M.A.H. .............................................. 4-6 4.3.3 Technical Revisions ..................................................................... 4-7 4.4 Loyalist Secondary Plan ......................................................................... 4-8 4.5 Conclusion .............................................................................................. 4-9 5. City of Belleville Residential and Non-Residential Land Supply ........................ 5-1 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Future Housing Supply Opportunities ..................................................... 5-1 5.2.1 Housing Supply in Development Approvals Process ................... 5-3 5.2.2 Residential Intensification Potential .............................................. 5-4 5.2.3 Development Opportunities in Proposed Plans and Vacant Designated Residential Lands ..................................................... 5-6 5.2.4 Development Opportunities in the Loyalist Secondary Plan Area Central Zone ........................................................................ 5-7 5.2.5 Total Housing Supply Potential .................................................... 5-8 5.3 Vacant Employment Land Supply ......................................................... 5-11 5.4 Future Commercial and Institutional Land Supply Opportunities .......... 5-16 5.4.1 Commercial Land Supply Opportunities ..................................... 5-16 5.4.2 Community Facility Lands Supply Opportunities ........................ 5-20 6. Population, Housing and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ......................... 6-1 6.1 Hastings County Long-Term Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ........... 6-2 6.2 Overview of Key Regional Economic Growth Drivers within the City of Belleville .............................................................................................. 6-3 6.3 City of Belleville Long-term Population Growth ....................................... 6-4 6.4 Labour Force Growth Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ........................................ 6-6 6.5 Components of Forecast Population Growth .......................................... 6-8 6.5.1 City of Belleville Net Migration Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ................ 6-8 6.5.2 Forecast Trends in Natural Increase (Births Less Deaths), 2016 to 2041 ................................................................................ 6-9 6.6 City of Belleville Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ............................. 6-10 6.6.1 Population Forecast by Age Cohort ........................................... 6-10 6.7 City of Belleville Forecast Housing Trends, 2016 to 2041..................... 6-11 6.7.1 Forecast Household Growth by Age of Household Maintainer ... 6-11 6.7.2 Average Persons Per Housing Unit (P.P.U.) .............................. 6-12 6.7.3 City of Belleville Household Growth Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ..... 6-13 6.7.4 Forecast Annual Housing Growth by Structure Type ................. 6-15 6.8 Long-term Employment Growth ............................................................ 6-16 6.8.1 Forecast Employment Growth, 2016 to 2041 ............................. 6-16 6.8.2 Forecast Employment Growth by Major Sector, 2018 to 2041 ... 6-18 7. Residential Land Needs .................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Housing Growth Allocations by Geographic Area, 2018 to 2038 ............ 7-1 7.1.1 Urban and Rural Housing Growth ................................................ 7-2 7.1.2 Urban Housing Growth – Intensification ....................................... 7-2 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Belleville\Comprehensive Review 2017\Report\City of Belleville MCR Draft Report Revised April 10.docx 7.2 Urban Residential Land Needs, 2018 to 2038 ........................................ 7-4 7.2.1 Policy Context .............................................................................. 7-4 7.2.2 Urban Residential Land Needs .................................................... 7-6 8. Commercial and Institutional Land Need ........................................................... 8-1 8.1 Commercial Land Profile ......................................................................... 8-1 8.1.1 Estimated Trade Area .................................................................. 8-1 8.1.2 City of Belleville Retail Base ........................................................ 8-3 8.1.3 National and Local Retail Trends ..............................................