Why Nations Go to War ELEVENTH EDITION JOHN G. STOESSINGER Distinguished Professor of Global Diplomacy University of San Diego Australia • Brazil • Japan • Korea • Mexico • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • United States Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Why Nations Go to War, © 2011, 2008, 2004 Wadsworth, Cengage Learning Eleventh Edition ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work John G. 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May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Contents PREFACE ix LIST OF MAPS xi ABOUT THE AUTHOR xii INTRODUCTION xiii “RENDEZVOUS” xvii 1 The Iron Dice: World War I 3 The Kaiser’s Fateful Pledge 5 The Austrian Ultimatum to Serbia 7 The Closing Trap 11 The Iron Dice 16 Conclusion 23 Notes 26 Selected Bibliography 28 2 Barbarossa: Hitler’s Attack on Russia 31 Hitler and Russia 32 Stalin and Germany 43 Conclusion 54 Afterword: Seventy Years Later 58 Notes 58 Selected Bibliography 60 v Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. vi CONTENTS 3 The Temptations of Victory: Korea 63 President Truman’s Decision 65 General Macarthur’s Gamble 76 North Korea’s Brinksmanship 87 Notes 98 Selected Bibliography 101 4 A Greek Tragedy in Five Acts: Vietnam 103 Act One: Truman—Asia was not Europe 104 Act Two: Eisenhower—The Lesson of France Ignored 108 Act Three: Kennedy—The Military 112 Act Four: Johnson—The Catastrophe 118 Act Five: Nixon—Full Circle 126 Conclusion 130 Notes 133 Selected Bibliography 135 5 From Sarajevo to Kosovo: The Wars of Europe’s Last Dictator 137 The Dismemberment of Yugoslavia Begins 140 The War in Bosnia 143 The Tide Turns Against the Serbs 149 The Dayton Peace Accords 151 The UN War Crimes Tribunal 153 Kosovo and Milosevic’s Downfall 157 Conclusion: A New Dawn of Peace with Justice? 168 Notes 172 Selected Bibliography 174 6 In the Name of God: Hindus and Moslems in India and Pakistan 177 Colonialism, Partition, and War 178 The Kashmir War of 1965 186 The Bloody Dawn of Bangladesh 190 Nuclear Viagra 200 India’s 9/11: Mumbai, November 2008 207 Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. CONTENTS vii Conclusion 209 Notes 210 Selected Bibliography 212 7 The Sixty Years’ War in the Holy Land: Israel and the Arabs 215 The Palestine War of 1948 216 The Sinai Campaign and the Suez Crisis of 1956 226 The Six-Day War of 1967 233 The October War of 1973 241 The Lebanese Tragedy 251 The Palestinian Uprising 254 The Peace Process: Between Fear and Hope 257 The Second Palestinian Uprising and the Road Map 260 History Interrupted 266 “Giving War a Chance”: America, Israel, and Hezbollah 270 War Over Gaza 283 Conclusion 284 Notes 287 Selected Bibliography 289 8 The War Lover: Saddam Hussein’s Wars against Iran and Kuwait 293 The Iran-Iraq War: The Price of Martyrdom 294 Saddam’s Aggression Against Kuwait 299 Notes 318 Selected Bibliography 319 9 New Wars for a New Century: America and the World of Islam 323 George W. Bush: From Pragmatist to Crusader 326 War Drums 332 The “War After the War”: Dilemmas of Occupation 337 Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. viii CONTENTS The Capture of Saddam 344 Mission Accomplished? 348 Elections in Iraq 349 The Descent Into Civil War 351 Law and Society Under Islam: Three Vignettes 358 Nato’s War in Afghanistan 358 The Iranian People’s Uprising of 2009 and the Nuclear Crisis 365 The Trial of Saddam Hussein 376 Reflections on Iraq’s Past and Future 380 What Went Wrong? 381 What Can be Done to Set Things Right? 383 Conclusion: Perils of Empire 390 Notes 391 Selected Bibliography 393 10 Why Nations Go to War 396 The Determinants of War 398 Heart of Darkness: Rwanda and Darfur 411 Learning from History 417 Notes 422 Selected Bibliography 423 EPILOGUE 426 INDEX 433 Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Preface he twenty-first century brought with it two new kinds of war: Tthe horrendous events of September 11, 2001, which precipi- tated an invasion of Afghanistan but failed to find the elusive per- petrator of the 9/11 disaster, Osama bin Laden. Instead, the United States embarked on a highly controversial preemptive war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. An analysis of this war with some new reflections on its resolution constitutes Chapter 9 of this edition. Seldom has the world changed so much in so little time as it has since the new millennium began. These changes are reflected in substantial updates of the chapters on Korea, India and Pakistan, the Balkans, the Middle East, and Africa. The many global initia- tives of a newly elected American President, Barack Obama, are given careful consideration as well. The analytical framework that has held the book together over the years has served the present edition well. Overall, the book remains essentially a product of reflection. I have benefited greatly, however, from the excellent and dedicated work of Amparo Pat Rocha. Janis Lasser also has my gratitude and appre- ciation for numerous thoughtful suggestions. Finally, my students at the University of San Diego have been most helpful, sharing many comments that showed extraordinary intellectual and emo- tional maturity. No teacher could be more fortunate. ix Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. x PREFACE I continue to hope that this book might make a modest contribution to the understanding of humanity’s most horrible self-imposed affliction. John G. Stoessinger Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. List of Maps Map 1 Europe in 1914 2 Map 2 Europe in 1945 30 Map 3 Operation Barbarossa and the Eastern Front, 1941–1942 45 Map 4 The Korean War, 1950–1953 62 Map 5 Vietnam, 1954–1975 102 Map 6 Yugoslavia, 1991 136 Map 7 Crisis in Kosovo 161 Map 8 The Indian Subcontinent 176 Map 9 Israel and Its Neighbors 214 Map 10 Israeli Conquests 238 Map 11 Iraq and the Persian Gulf Region 292 Map 12 The Gulf War 312 Map 13 Iraq, Afghanistan 322 Map 14 Iraq: Ethnic-Religious Groups 339 xi Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning, Inc. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. About the Author John G. Stoessinger (PhD, Harvard) is Distinguished Professor of Global Diplomacy at the University of San Diego in San Diego, California. He has taught at Harvard, MIT, Columbia, Princeton, the City University of New York, and Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas. In 1969 he led the International Seminar on International Relations at Harvard University, and in 1970 he received honorary doctor of law degrees from Grinnell College, Iowa, and from the American College of Switzerland. Stoessinger is the author of ten leading books on international relations, including The Might of Nations: World Politics in Our Time, which was awarded the Bancroft Prize by Columbia University in 1963 and is now in its tenth edition. He is also the author of The Refugee and the World Community; Financing the United Nations System; Power and Order; The United Nations and the Superpowers; Nations at Dawn: China, Russia, and America; Crusaders and Pragmatists: Movers of Modern American Foreign Policy; and Henry Kissinger: The Anguish of Power.