© 2019 Beyond the Horizon SYRIA CRISIS WATCH International Strategic Studies Group (08-22 Dec 19) www.behorizon.org 6. At least 25,000 people fled Syria's Idlib for Turkey over two days - media. KEY EVENTS 22.12.2019 At least 25,000 civilians have fled Syria’s northwestern region of Idlib and headed towards Turkey over the past two days, Turkish state media said on Sunday, as Syrian and 1. Russian Military Opened Fire on an Israeli Aircraft. Russian forces intensified their bombardment of the region. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has 19.12.2019 Russia has allegedly opened fire on Israeli aircraft that entered Syria’s airspace vowed to recapture Idlib, pushing more people towards Turkey. On Thursday, Turkish President in the southwestern part of the country, the Hebrew-language website Channel 12 Tayyip Erdogan said 50,000 people were fleeing from Idlib towards Syria’s border with Turkey. reported. Citing the website Top War, the Channel 12 report said the Russian military (Reuters) https://reut.rs/36YWBIB opened fire on an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that was along the eastern axis of the occupied Golan Heights region. (The Syrian Observer) http://bit.ly/2PLSM3E 7. Lack of refugee aid forced Turkey into Syria operation : Erdogan. 17.12.2019 A lack of international assistance to Turkey to support millions of refugees on its soil 2. Russia & Syria Signal West With Joint Naval Drills, “Hundreds” Of Airstrikes pushed Ankara to launch operations in northeast Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan On Idlib. said Tuesday. Despite broad international criticism, Turkish forces in October launched a major 22.12.2019 Multiple developments related to Russia's military role in Syria mean that the cross-border raid to clear a so-called safe-zone of Kurdish fighters, who Ankara considers years-long conflict could once again become front and center for Washington during 2020. “terrorists”. “Nobody seems inclined to help us,” Erdogan told international leaders gathered for a Global Refugee Forum in Geneva. “When we haven't received the support we needed from the First, this week Russia and Syria conducted rare joint naval drills in the eastern Regime international community, we had to take care of our own self,” he said of Turkey's operations Mediterranean at a moment Russian jets significantly increased airstrikes on jihadist-held SDF into northern Syria since 2016. (France 24) https://bit.ly/2POa2W1 Idlib province, reportedly conducting hundreds of missile strikes in the last five days, with ISIL regional reports saying Russian warships in the Mediterranean are firing sea-launched TF/FSA 8. EU condemns Turkey again while sticking to its position on the Kurdish rockets as well. (Zero Hedge) https://bit.ly/38WzCQe Opposition administration in north-east Syria. Israel 3. Russia and China block UN plan for cross-border aid to Syria. 17.12.2019 An international conference took place last week in the European Parliament on the 1 Event 22.12.2019 Russia, backed by China, on Friday cast its 14th UN Security Council veto since deteriorating humanitarian and military situation in North-East Syria following the Turkish the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011 to block cross-border aid deliveries from Turkey and invasion in beginning of October. The conference ended with a strongly worded condemnation Iraq to millions of Syrian civilians, reports Reuters. The resolution, drafted by Belgium, of the invasion and a call to the EU and the international community to recognise the Kuwait and Germany, would have allowed cross-border humanitarian deliveries for a Autonomous Administration in the region (Rojava) and include it in the UN-led Constitutional further 12 months from two points in Turkey and one in Iraq. But Syrian ally Russia only Committee tasked to draft a new constitution for Syria. The Foreign Affairs Council condemned wanted to approve the two Turkish crossings for six months and had proposed its own already on 14 October Turkey’s military action in north-east Syria and urged Turkey to withdraw draft text. (MEMO) https://bit.ly/34OgIrz political humanitarian WMD use armed conflict its forces, a call that has been ignored by Turkey. (The Brussels Times) https://bit.ly/2EKlNXf situation situation 4. Russia and Iran Get Closer on Security. 9. Erdoğan: Syria’s oil revenues should be used to fund Turkey’s ‘safe zone’ project. 17.12.2019 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said that money gained from the Syrian 19.12.2019 Russia and Iran have affirmed closer ties in bilateral security and on their joint ASSESSMENT oil fields should be used to fund Turkey’s plans to establish refugee towns in a planned “safe efforts in Syria despite U.S. lawmakers' passage of a bill that would slap new sanctions on zone” in northern Syria. “Let’s together extract the oil from those oil wells and then by executing the two countries over their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.Iranian Supreme Latest joint naval drill with participation of Russian and Syrian navies marks a new stage in these projects in that terror region, let’s settle these people who are currently refugees in their National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani met Wednesday with Russian National Russian ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean in the post-Syrian war era. In order to houses and schools that we build,” he said. (Duvar) https://bit.ly/2sbiUw0 Security Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Tehran. (Newsweek) https://bit.ly/2sd0jQ3 ensure its presence and legitimacy in the region, Russia is and will likely use every tool to 5. Erdoğan claims 50,000 people fleeing to Turkey from Syria’s northwest: introduce Syria as a sovereign state among international community. 10. Omar calls on US to investigate Turkey over possible war crimes in Syria. report. Turkey seems to lose the initiative completely to Russia in Idlib region and will try to take 18.12.2019 Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) on Wednesday called for the State Department to 19.12.2019 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday said 50,000 people were measures against the soon expected refugee flows to hit its borders. Within the same investigate Turkey, citing allegations that the country's military forces used chemical weapons on fleeing Syria’s northwestern region of Idlib to Turkey and slammed Muslim nations for not context, Erdogan will likely exploit this opportunity to blackmail Western States as he civilians, a possible war crime that occurred during Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria in supporting his plans to resettle refugees in other parts of north Syria, Reuters reported. reiterated his claims that Western States betrayed Turkey concerning the support for October. In a letter to U.S. Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey, the freshman congresswoman Turkey currently hosts some 3.7 million Syrian refugees, the largest refugee population in refugees during the Global Refugee Forum in Geneva. said it was urgent that the U.S. determine whether a NATO ally intentionally targeted Kurdish the world, and fears another influx from the Idlib region, where up to 3 million Syrians live civilians with white phosphorous, an incendiary chemical allowed in conventional warfare but in the last significant insurgent-held swathe of territory. (Turkish Minutes) Additionally, Erdogan’s proposal to use Syrian oil revenues to support Turkish safe zone plan banned against use for targeting individuals. (The Hill) https://bit.ly/2PQT4qh https://bit.ly/394dQKr is far from reality as the possession of Syrian oil fields is still one of the hot topics in the region. © 2019 Beyond the Horizon SYRIA CRISIS WATCH International Strategic Studies Group (02-08 Dec 19) www.behorizon.org 6. Turkey to appoint 4,000 police officers to Syria. KEY EVENTS 07.12.2019 Turkey will be appointing 4,000 urban and rural police officers in Ras al Ayn and Tel 1. What can we learn from the escalating Israeli raids in Syria? Abyad in northern Syria, the governorate of southeastern border province of Şanlıurfa said in a statement. Turkish forces had taken control of the two Syrian towns as per the Sochi Accord 06.12.2019 On Wednesday afternoon, an Iranian ammunition depot in Al-Bukamal, Syria Turkey signed with Russia, following its Operation Peace Spring into the Kurdish-controlled was hit by an airstrike. This attack comes after Israel reportedly conducted four air strikes territories in northern Syria in October. Şanlıurfa Governor Abdullah Erin said in a meeting in Tel in Syria between November 12 and November 20, according to the Russian Foreign Abyad Turkish security forces would start training some 1,800 Syrian men within the week. Ministry. While Israel has reportedly carried out thousands of strikes in Syria and Governor Erin said the second group would start training later, bringing the total force up to neighboring Iraq in recent years, the frequency, intensity, and toll of these recent attacks 3,500 to 4,000 officers. (Ahval) https://bit.ly/2t04C1v are unprecedented. (Brookings.edu) https://brook.gs/347dyis 7. Russia and Turkey establish new military bases in Syria. 2. Russia, Israel discuss cooperation on Syria. 04.12.2019 The Russian Armed Forces have established a new military base in northern Syria 06.12.2019 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin after reaching an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces, which consists primarily of Netanyahu on Friday discussed the Russian-Israeli cooperation on Syria over the phone. Kurdish fighters. According to Al Ekhbariya, Ankara has been reinforcing its military presence in Syria at the same time. The Turkish army has established two new military facilities near the city The top officials discussed a number of topics on the bilateral agenda, the Kremlin said in a Regime of Ras al-Ayn in north-eastern Syria, and the towns of Al Toulan and Al Kanhir in the Al Hasakah statement published on its official website.