Earth Systems and Environment (2019) 3:101–112 https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-019-00086-0 ORIGINAL ARTICLE A High‑Resolution Mesoscale Model Approach to Reproduce Super Typhoon Maysak (2015) Over Northwestern Pacifc Ocean Gaurav Tiwari1 · Sushil Kumar2 · Ashish Routray3 · Jagabandhu Panda4 · Indu Jain5 Received: 5 June 2018 / Accepted: 3 January 2019 / Published online: 10 January 2019 © King Abdulaziz University and Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 Abstract In this study, an attempt is made to simulate super typhoon Maysak, which occurred over the northwest Pacifc Ocean in 2015 and made landfall on the Philippines coast. The aim of the present study is to assess the various atmospheric condi- tions during the life cycle of Maysak to explore the associated dynamics and behavior over the ocean. For this purpose, the advanced research core of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model is adopted. The model is simulated using 27-km horizontal grid resolution with National Centers for Environmental Prediction global Final analyses (FNL) initial conditions. The relevant parameters, namely storm track, intensity, wind–vorticity, rainfall, minimum sea level pres- sure, relative humidity, and maximum refectivity etc., were analyzed. The model is able to perform reasonably well when available observations over the region compared with the simulated values of these parameters. The present study is able to demonstrate the capability of WRF in simulating and predicting the relevant characteristic features of typhoons over the northwest Pacifc Ocean region through the case of Maysak. Keywords Mesoscale model · ARW​ · Typhoon · Track of storm 1 Introduction region, but as much as 50% of total precipitation occurs over ocean basins (Jiang and Zipser 2010). The forecasting of the Typhoons (or tropical cyclones) are one of the most force- cyclonic storms and associated rainfall events can be done ful natural manifestations in the earth. Every year, a virtu- using numerical models or by adopting well-tested forecast ous number of typhoons occur in the western part of the methods. Probabilistic forecast methods have limitations of North Pacifc Ocean with high intensity. These typhoons subjectivity, whereas numerical models have limitations of generally move towards the east–north-westerly direction. the inadequacy of observations. But due to the development They induce heavy damages associated with strong winds of suitable methods, numerical models serve as a handy tool and storm surges (Maw et al. 2017; Rappaport 2000; Ema- for typhoon studies (Nguyen and Chen 2011; DeMaria et al. nuel 2005). Further, precipitation associated with storm 2007). events accounts for 6–9% of total rainfall over the tropical For last three decades, there is signifcant upgrading in numerical prediction of typhoons primarily focusing on * Gaurav Tiwari prediction of storm track and intensity (Pattanaik and Rao [email protected] 2009; Rogers et al. 2006; Tien et al. 2013) since they are quite important in operational point of view. Several pro- 1 Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian cesses in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) impact the Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal, Bhopal, India dynamics of a severe typhoon, which can be seen by the output from numerical model simulations (e.g., Anthes and 2 Department of Applied Mathematics, Gautam Buddha University, Greater Noida, India Chang 1978). Continuous improvement in computer applica- tions allows numerical weather prediction models with fner 3 National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A‑50, Sector‑62, Noida, India scales of resolution using higher order convergent numerical techniques and parameterizations (Tao et al. 2011). NWP 4 Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, India models have numerous physical and dynamical parameteri- zation schemes with various options of physical processes 5 RMSI Pvt. Ltd., Noida, India Vol.:(0123456789)1 3 102 G. Tiwari et al. involved with the complexity in the model (Haghroosta et al. by Cambodia. It intensifed rapidly and tracked westward 2014). Cumulus schemes play a vital role in the simulation across the Federated States of Micronesia. It traversed of typhoon track and intensity since a relationship between Chuuk and Yap between March 29th and April 1st and these can be case dependent (Shin et al. 2010). The cus- brought caustic winds to a number of islands and reached tomization of numerical modeling systems takes place in Yap’s Ulithi Atoll and Fais Island with continual winds order to be tuned well for the prediction of diferent weather speed of 160 miles per hour. It intensifed explosively into events over a region (Das et al. 2015). Microphysics, PBL, a super typhoon of category 5 on March 31st. On April 1st, and cumulus physics-associated processes are signifcantly Maysak’s eye passed the Yap Island having winds speed up responsible for typhoon initiation and development (Chan- to 48 mph and eye widened to 40 km. On the same day, drasekar and Balaji 2012). An appreciable number of param- PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astro- eterization schemes are available in the ARW (Advanced nomical Services Administration) started tracking typhoon Research WRF) model for use in order to get better pre- Maysak. On April 4th, it downgraded into a severe tropical dictions of these natural events. The precise prediction of cyclone and on April 5th, Maysak made landfall in Luzon in tropical storms’ structure and intensity changes is closely the form of a minimal tropical storm. It lowered to a tropical connected to its inner core structure and their development depression and fnally dissipated in the South China Sea. (Dasari et al. 2017; Houze et al. 2006; Kossin and Eas- It is also known as Typhoon Chedeng in the Philippines tin 2001). The sensitivity to cloud microphysics and PBL and was one of the most powerful tropical cyclones in the schemes available in ARW is studied by (Li and Pu 2008) Northwestern Pacifc Ocean, which made huge damage in during the early rapid intensifcation of Hurricane Emily. the Philippines. Figure 1 illustrates some of the synoptic During a 72-h simulation period, diferent PBL schemes in meteorological features associated with the typhoon. Fig- the ARW model could lead to a diference up to 15 m/s in ure 1a shows a view of Typhoon Maysak at 06 UTC of April the maximum surface wind and 16 hPa in the central pres- 4th, 2015. Figure 1b, c is taken at 05 UTC and 0730 UTC on sure (Braun and Tao 2000). April 5th, 2015 respectively, from Regional and Mesoscale The objective of this study is to simulate the super Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) of NOAA Satellites and typhoon Maysak by adopting the appropriate combination of Information. Figure 1b depicts storm relative imagery from physical parameterizations, occurred over the northwestern Joint Polar Satellite System spacecraft. For this, Visible Pacifc Ocean during 1–7 April 2015, and validate the ARW Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) imagery is used, model results with observations. The country like the Philip- which is color enhanced to emphasize the coldest tempera- pines has very limited capability to run global or regional ture/highest clouds. Figure 1c shows the Passive Microwave models over the region day-to-day basis and it makes this Imagery (PMI)-based typhoon analysis and forecast and it study very signifcant to explore the dynamical and spatial provides information about location, liquid water, rainfall, variabilities of such typhoon for future assessments. This is etc. These satellite imageries provide an initial representa- an early modeling study using the mesoscale model ARW tion of the typhoon and its associated characteristics. Further over the region to simulate such intense super typhoon. Fur- demonstrations in this study are from the numerical model ther, accurate prediction of such events including landfall simulations. location, landfall time and associated damages is empha- sized. The Philippines receive the major force of the land- falls as compared to China and Japan and it is very complex 3 Model Description and Numerical to understand the genesis and prediction of the typhoon. Experiments Synoptic features of typhoon Maysak are discussed in Sect. 2. Model description is given in Sect. 3, which also In this study, fully compressible non-hydrostatic ARW mes- includes the description of the data used and numerical oscale modeling system version 3.5.1 is used. ARW is devel- experiments conducted in the computational framework. oped by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Divi- Results and discussions are presented in Sect. 4. The last sion of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) section concludes about the outcomes of the study. in collaboration with other agencies. It is used to analyze spatial and dynamical features associated with typhoon May- sak occurred over the northwest Pacifc Ocean. For this pur- 2 Synoptic Features Associated pose, the horizontal grid resolution mesh of 27 km is con- with the Super Typhoon Maysak sidered and the vertical resolution of the model is defned by 38 sigma levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the The typhoon Maysak developed on March 26th, 2015 into a model are provided from NCEP (National Centers for Envi- tropical depression over west of Pohnpei Island and turned ronmental Prediction) FNL data with a resolution of 1° × 1°. into a typhoon gradually. The name Maysak was contributed