MOROCCO/ SAUDI ARABIA Strained bilateral relations Situation on the 25.02.2019 Gradual deterioration of the relations between Morocco and Saudi Arabia since 2017. Unpopular desire for strategic autonomy of Rabat from Riyad. Multiplication of « hostile » gestures from Saudi Arabia towards Morocco, in retaliation for the « desire of autonomy ». Recall of the Moroccan ambassador in Saudi Arabia. Often introduced as an unwavering ally of Saudi Arabia, especially concerning its foreign policy, Morocco has expressed for a little while, in a discreet but confident way, a desire for strategic autonomy from the “Saudi brother”. This distancing of Rabat from certain Saudi political orientations under the direction of the powerful crown prince, Mohamed ben Salman (MbS), is not popular in Riyad. “Historical” relations about to crack Until a recent date, the image sent by both countries was showing that of an excellent relationship, even referred to as “historical” on both sides. This is reflected by the recent participation of Morocco in the coalition led by Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war. When Riyad created this coalition in 2015 against the Houthis rebels, Morocco, unlike the other countries of Maghreb, has immediately shown its support to the Saudi kingdom by sending its armed forces, especially some air force’s combat aircraft F16 to participate in this operation. Morocco also broke its diplomatic relations with Teheran on the 1st of May 2018, to the great satisfaction of Riyad, which has been trying for a long time to isolate his powerful Iranian rival on the international scene. The Sharif kingdom has justified this decision by the fact that the Iranian regime was supporting, through the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Polisario Front independentists, fighting for the western Sahara’s independence. The accusations, of which the veracity is highly doubtful according to many observers, was most probably only an excuse to justify the alignment of Rabat with Riyad and its allies from the Gulf on the Iranian issue. Besides, immediately after the announcement of this decision by the Moroccan authorities, some support messages coming from the Gulf monarchies, headed by Saudi Arabia, have been published to express their for Morocco which, according to them, allegedly suffered attempts to destabilize and to question its territorial integrity by the “regime of the Mullahs”. However, this Moroccan alignment on Saudi Arabia is increasingly questioned today. This change in the Moroccan foreign policy can mostly be explained by the numerous decisions and hazardous actions taken by the Saudi kingdom, under the direction of MbS, especially on the regional level, and that have sometimes embarrassed some allies of Riyad. Even on the international level, the humiliating way in which several Saudi princes close to the king of Morocco have been arrested as part of the anticorruption campaign launched by MbS in November 2017 would have strongly annoyed Mohammed VI, according to several sources. Increasing tension since 2017 Since the nomination of MbS as crown prince, the strategic calculations of Saudi Arabia and its orientations in terms of foreign policy have not necessarily been compatible with Morocco’s interests. This situation had led to a gradual but continue deterioration of the relation between Riyad and Rabat. Risk&Co - Confidentiel 1 The “divorce” was reached with the recall of the Moroccan ambassador in Saudi Arabia after the multiplication of gesture judged “hostiles” by the Moroccan authorities. - Qatari crisis The Gulf crisis – that has led to the imposition by Riyad and its allies of a political and economic blockade on Qatar – has been the first big event of these past years that led to a clear distancing of Morocco towards the Saudi regional policy. Indeed, Rabat has always had privileged relations with the Gulf countries, including Qatar. The relations with Doha have also strongly been reinforced since the accession to the throne of Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani. From the beginning of the Gulf crisis, Morocco has been unwilling to alienate Doha and to refused be dragged with Saudi Arabia in a venture in which it has nothing to win. Trying to reduce tensions between the two countries, playing the mediation card, the Moroccan gesture has not been appreciated by the Saudi. Indeed, at the beginning of this crisis in 2017, the “positive neutrality” of Morocco, who was deploying some efforts of mediations, was badly perceived by Riyad which suspected the Sharif kingdom to undermine its plans aiming to isolating Doha on the international scene. The humanitarian aids sent by Morocco to Qatar and which have contributed with some others to break the blockade could only confirm, in the logic of MbS, a bias from Rabat in this crisis. In retaliation, certain Saudi televisions “following orders” started to b talk more and more about the Sahara related territorial conflict that oppose Morocco and the Polisario Front. - World cup The failure of the Moroccan application in the 2026 World Cup organization is also written into this register of deterioration or the relation between Riyad and Rabat. Indeed, in June 2019, Morocco failed, for the fifth time in its history, to host the football World Cup, facing the application of the American, Canadian and Mexican trio. During the vote, the score was categorical since Morocco only collected 65 votes, against 134 for the application of its rivals. However, the great surprise during this vote was not so much the score obtained by Morocco but the fact that countries like Saudi Arabia, Bahrein and United Arab Emirates had voted against the Moroccan application. Riyad and Abu Dhabi would even have put pressure on other countries (Arab and African) to vote for the rival application. The vote of Saudi Arabia and some of its regional allies against the Moroccan application was considered as a real betrayal by several Moroccan officials. But here again, according to several observers, it was a response to the attitude of the Moroccan diplomacy in the case of the blockade imposed by Riyad and its allies in Qatar. - Postponement of the Saudi crown prince’s visit in Morocco To appreciate the change that occurred in the relations between the two country, it is useful to remind the cancellation of the usual annual holidays of the Saudi reigning family in Tangier, but above all, the postponement of MbS’s visit in Morocco. Indeed, during his last visit in Maghreb at the end of November and the beginning of December 2018 as part of an international tour aiming to break its isolation after the Khashoggi scandal, it turned out – to everyone’s surprise – that Morocco was not on the list that MbS was going to visit. Quickly, Moroccan media questioned themselves about the lack of the Moroccan step in the prince’s tour. Was it the expression of a Saudi will of an end of non-receipt from the Sharif kingdom? The answer has been recently given by the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs Nasser Bourita, who said, at the end of January, during an interview given to the Qatari information channel Al- Jazeera, that some contact had been made, on Riyad’s initiative, to include Morocco in the crown prince’s program, but that the Moroccan authorities did not respond positively to this request. This revelation from the Moroccan MFA seems to have strongly bothered the Saudi authorities. - « Withdrawal » of Morocco from the war in Yemen? During the same interview in al-Jazeera, the Moroccan minister said that the involvement of his country in the conflict in Yemen, under the direction of the Arab coalition led by Riyad had “changed”. Even if no clarification has been made about this “change”, several media, especially Moroccan ones, specified – early February – that Rabat would have had interrupted its military participation in the conflict in Yemen. Furthermore, the Prime minister of the rebel Houthi administration Abdel Asis ben Abtour has sent a telegram to the Moroccan prime minister in which he noted “the importance and the positive impact of the decision on the relations between Yemen and Morocco”, considering it as “a proof of the absurd Risk&Co - Confidentiel 2 nature of this aggression”. He has also hopped that by making the decision of withdrawing from the conflict, the Moroccan authorities would contribute to the cessation of hostilities. Such a withdraw, if it were to be confirmed, would sound like a real snub for Riyad which would lose another strategic ally in this conflict and would discredit even more the role of the Saudi Arabia in this conflict with dramatic humanitarian consequences. - Saudi blackmailing on the Sahrawi issue While traditionally Saudi Arabia supports the Moroccan thesis on western Sahara, Riyad has been showing for several months not reassuring signs toward the Moroccan kingdom, on the lines of the diffusion of a Moroccan kingdom map without Sahara during a public manifestation in Riyad. However, it is mostly the broadcasting, on the 31st of January, by the information channel Al-Arabiya, competitor of Al Jazzera and financed by Saudi Arabia, of a short documentary about the western Sahara conflict that has provoked the anger of Rabat. If, officially, Saudi Arabia supports the position of Morocco on this matter, the broadcasting of such a documentary is clearly the sign of important existing tensions between Riyad and Rabat and could be indicating a change of attitude from Riyad towards Rabat. In this short documentary, the Saudi channel has presented the conflict in a neutral way, reminding that the Poliseio Front is recognized by the UNO as the legitim representative of the Sahrawi people. Nothing abnormal in substance, but the fact that such statements, which contradict that much the Moroccan, were made on a channel owned by Saudi Arabia, which has always supported Morocco on the western Sahara issue, shoes the gap about to be dug between the two capitals.