Conceptual Modelling of Drone Transport ////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Scenarios for the Future Department Of Transport and Main Roads TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................... i LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1 CURRENT DRONE CAPABILITY ............................................... 5 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................... 1 TABLE 4.1 TRANSPORT STATISTICS FOR MODELLED SCENARIOS ..... 12 1.1 PURPOSE ................................................................................1 1.2 BACKGROUND ........................................................................1 LIST OF FIGURES 1.3 RELEVANT TRENDS ...............................................................1 FIGURE 1.1 FLYING CARRIAGES IN THE YEAR 2000.................................. 1 FIGURE 2.1 BATTERY ENERGY DENSITY ................................................... 3 2 DRONE DEVELOPMENTS ................................................. 3 FIGURE 2.2 TYPICAL SUSTAINED NOISE LEVELS ...................................... 4 2.1 ENABLING TECHNOLOGY ......................................................3 FIGURE 2.3 LOCATION OF CURRENT TRIALS OF TRANSPORT USES OF 2.2 DRONE TRIALS .......................................................................5 DRONES (AUG 2019) ................................................................ 5 FIGURE 3.1 TRIP COMPARISON OF DRONE AND CAR ............................... 6 3 FACTORS AFFECTING DRONE TRANSPORT FIGURE 3.2 DRONE PAYLOAD AND DISTANCE RANGES ........................... 8 FUNCTION ............................................................................ 6 FIGURE 4.1 LOCAL TAKEAWAYS DELIVERY: SCENARIO 2 ...................... 13 3.1 AREAS SERVED ......................................................................6 FIGURE 4.2 VERTIPORT AND DELIVERY HUB USE: SCENARIO 4 ............ 14 3.2 DEMAND DRIVERS ..................................................................7 FIGURE 4.3 MAXIMUM DRONE DELIVERY DEMAND IN SEQ: SCENARIO 3.3 DRONE PAYLOAD AND RANGE .............................................8 4 .............................................................................................. 15 3.4 TRANSPORT FUNCTIONS FOR DRONES ..............................9 FIGURE 4.4 AIR METRO NETWORK CONCEPT ......................................... 16 FIGURE 4.5 AIR METRO VERTIPORT DAILY DEMAND .............................. 16 4 SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE .................................... 10 FIGURE 4.6 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PASSENGER DRONE TRIPS AND 4.1 FUTURE SCENARIOS ............................................................ 10 THE NUMBER OF VERTIPORTS ............................................. 17 4.2 TRANSPORT IMPLICATIONS ................................................ 12 FIGURE 4.7 TRAVEL TIME BENEFIT OF PASSENGER DRONES ............... 17 FIGURE 4.8 DISTRIBUTION OF PASSENGER DRONE DEMAND: 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............. 21 SCENARIO 4 ........................................................................... 18 5.1 IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS ............................................... 21 FIGURE 4.9 CENTRAL BRISBANE TOTAL DRONE TRIPS AND AIRPORT DRONE NO-FLY ZONES ......................................................... 19 5.2 FURTHER INVESTIGATION ................................................... 22 FIGURE 4.10 DELIVERY DEMAND PER HOSPITAL: SCENARIO 4 ............... 20 5.3 CONCLUSION ........................................................................ 22 FIGURE 4.11 HEALTH DRONE TRANSPORT DEMAND EXAMPLE .............. 20 6 REFERENCES .................................................................... 23 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The model cannot accurately predict the future as multiple The scenarios varied the extent to which the technology STRATEGIC CONTEXT factors will affect how drones and other disruptive could adequately limit negative impacts (the vertical axis), technologies change our transport system. Instead the four and how cost competitive the technology is compared to The use of drones to transport goods and people is scenarios seek to provide policy insight into the future other transport options. The four scenarios are emerging as an opportunity to help address transport opportunities and challenges presented by passenger and summarised in the figure below. challenges with innovative aerial transport solutions. delivery drones. It is important to read the findings Queensland already has a drone delivery service with presented in this report in this context. Alphabet's Wing starting deliveries in Logan, Queensland in September 2019. The Queensland Transport Strategy (2020) identifies the value of using emerging technologies, including drones, to transform the state’s transport system and meet customer’s and the economy’s changing needs. The Queensland Drone Strategy (2018) sets the framework to capitalise on the state’s competitive advantages in drone technology. One of its actions is for the Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) to monitor and evaluate other jurisdictions' use and testing of new drone applications and technology. This report, collectively driven by the Queensland Drones Strategy and the Queensland Transport Strategy, sought to understand the opportunity delivery drones and passenger drones could present for the transport network. It also examines the challenges of this emerging technology and identifies suitable responses to these. FOUR PLAUSIBLE FUTURES Four plausible future scenarios were developed to assist in understanding the uncertainties around emerging transport trends. A conceptual model was then developed for drone transport services in South East Queensland (SEQ) to understand the implications of drones for the transport system under each of these four scenarios. While the modelling was limited to SEQ (primarily due to data availability), policy findings presented do consider regional implications. Project No PS113979 WSP Conceptual Modelling of Drone Transport | Scenarios for the future Department of Transport and Main Roads Page ii FINDINGS AND NEXT STEPS 3 Existing aviation regulation and infrastructure 5 There are no land use planning instruments could limit the scale of drone transport services appropriate for regulating the use of land for 1 Drones could help address transport disadvantage Existing Federal aviation regulation and governance delivery drone hubs or passenger vertiports in outer suburban, rural and island communities structures focus on long-distance aviation activities and The location of drone hubs and vertiports will have a Low-density outer suburban areas, island communities are not equipped for highly-localised urban drone major influence on the potential for delivery and and rural properties have high levels of car dependence, transport. The regulation of airspace, including the current passenger drones to provide a viable service to long distances to travel or difficulty in making trips. drone no-fly zones, and the current aviation infrastructure communities. However, drone hubs and vertiports will Delivery drones could improve the ease and reduce the is not configured for a large increase in urban aviation that generate noise impacts on surrounding land uses, cost for customers in these communities to buy goods and could arise from delivery and passenger drones. depending on the level of use of the facility. food. The isolation from commercial centres and the low Currently State and Local Governments do not have There are currently no land use planning instruments density of demand provide a distinct competitive regulatory responsibility for most aviation activities. available for local government to regulate the use of land advantage for drones over other modes of transport. Drone transport innovations are facilitating disruptive as a drone delivery hub or vertiport. There is a need for a Drone delivery service could reduce the need for private change in the field of aviation, and all tiers of government classification system for drone noise to inform the mobility in transport disadvantaged locations by providing need to contribute to revisiting existing regulations and development of appropriate land use policy for drone a viable transport alternative. Delivery drones also have infrastructure to support positive outcomes for the delivery hubs and vertiports. great potential to support positive health outcomes in community from drone transport service. Suggested response: State and Local Government should remote communities by reducing the cost and delay to Suggested response: State and Local Government in collaborate to develop suitable planning instruments for transport test samples, equipment and medication. Queensland needs to engage with Federal regulators of Local Government use in regulating the development of Suggested response: investigate opportunities to facilitate aviation to appropriately position the state to maximise the land as drone hubs or vertiports. drone delivery services and health-related drone services potential for drones in Queensland. for transport disadvantaged and regional communities. CONCLUSION 4 Noise and environmental impacts of drone The use of drones to transport goods and people presents 2 Drone transport services are not likely to relieve transport technology is poorly understood opportunities to innovate in addressing transport congestion on QLD's land transport network Recent trials of drone deliveries in Canberra have challenges throughout Queensland.