Initial Industry Plan Scotland Proposals for Control Period 5 and beyond September 2011 1 Contents 1. Introduction...............................................................................................................................12 1.1. Purpose ....................................................................................................................................12 1.2. Scope .......................................................................................................................................12 1.3. Further development of Control Period 5 plans ........................................................................12 1.4. Structure ...................................................................................................................................13 2. Context .....................................................................................................................................14 2.1 Government policy....................................................................................................................14 2.2 Understanding and improving user satisfaction ........................................................................16 2.3 Sustainable development .........................................................................................................20 2.4 Long term planning...................................................................................................................21 2.5 The railway today......................................................................................................................23 3. Value for money........................................................................................................................43 3.1. Introduction...............................................................................................................................43 3.2. The efficiency opportunity.........................................................................................................43 3.3. Network Rail’s plans to improve value for money .....................................................................46 3.4. Passenger train operators plans to improve value for money...................................................52 3.5. Rail freight ................................................................................................................................55 3.6. Scotland specific value for money opportunities.......................................................................55 3.7. The supply industry...................................................................................................................57 3.8. The Rail Delivery Group’s plans to improve value for money ...................................................58 4. ScotRail ....................................................................................................................................62 4.1 Strategic importance.................................................................................................................62 4.2 What users want.......................................................................................................................64 4.3 Demand for rail - market analysis .............................................................................................64 4.4 The current railway ...................................................................................................................65 4.5 Strategic options.......................................................................................................................67 4.6 A value for money strategy .......................................................................................................71 5. Anglo Scottish...........................................................................................................................72 5.1 Strategic importance.................................................................................................................72 5.2 What users want.......................................................................................................................73 5.3 Demand for rail .........................................................................................................................73 5.4 The current railway ...................................................................................................................74 5.5 A value for money strategy .......................................................................................................77 6. Rail freight in Scotland..............................................................................................................78 6.1 Strategic importance.................................................................................................................78 6.2 What customers and potential customers want ........................................................................81 6.3 Demand for rail freight ..............................................................................................................85 6.4 The current railway ...................................................................................................................89 6.5 Strategic options.......................................................................................................................90 6.6 A value for money strategy .......................................................................................................95 7. Network strategies for Scotland................................................................................................97 7.1 Improving the customer experience..........................................................................................97 7.2 Systems issues.......................................................................................................................101 7.3 Rolling stock ...........................................................................................................................108 7.4 Network Rail’s approach to asset management .....................................................................115 7.5 Employee Strategy .................................................................................................................120 8. Assessment of investment choices.........................................................................................123 8.1 Enhancement cost estimates..................................................................................................123 8.2 Context and strategic intent ....................................................................................................124 8.3 Approach to delivering better outcomes .................................................................................125 8.4 The case for investing in better outcomes ..............................................................................126 8.5 Outputs delivered by the plan .................................................................................................135 8.6 Affordability of the plan ...........................................................................................................139 8.7 Deliverability of the plan..........................................................................................................141 8.8 Risks and uncertainty .............................................................................................................141 9. Next steps...............................................................................................................................143 9.1 Developing the High Level Output Specification.....................................................................143 9.2 Consistency between the High Level Output Statement and franchise outputs......................147 9.3 Local Outputs .........................................................................................................................147 9.4 Reform....................................................................................................................................147 9.5 Improving value for money .....................................................................................................148 9.6 Developing the Strategic Business Plan.................................................................................148 9.7 How you can contribute ..........................................................................................................148 2 Foreword Foreword This Initial Industry Plan (IIP) for Scotland sets out how the industry can deliver a more efficient and better value railway and play a key role in driving sustainable economic growth. The IIP examines the key choices and options facing Scottish Ministers in specifying the future outputs of the railway and the level of funding required. These choices will inform the development of the Minister’s High Level Output Specification (HLOS) and Statement of Funds Available (SoFA) to be published next summer as part of the Periodic Review 2013 process as well as the reletting of the ScotRail franchise. The development of both this IIP and the IIP for England and Wales has been overseen by Planning Oversight Group (POG) which involves representatives of Network Rail, passenger and freight train operators and suppliers. This work has built on the successful