Intelligence Analysis in the Knowledge Age An Analysis of the Challenges facing the Practice of Intelligence Analysis Magdalena Adriana Duvenage Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy (Information and Knowledge Management) SUPERVISOR: Prof J Kinghorn STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY MARCH 2010 DECLARATION By submitting this thesis electronically, I declare that the entirety of the work contained therein is my own, original work, that I am the owner of the copyright thereof (unless to the extent explicitly otherwise stated) and that I have not previously submitted it for obtaining any qualification. Date: 12 February 2010 Copyright © 2010 Stellenbosch University All rights reserved Afrikaanse Opsomming Die internasionale intelligensie gemeenskap steier steeds na verskeie intelligensie terugslae die afgelope dekade. Voorstelle om intelligensie analise te verbeter het weinig impak terwyl analiste, hulle bestuurders en organisasies voortgaan om vas te hou aan uitgediende bedreigingsperspesies, analitiese metodes en organisatoriese strukture en kulture. Deur die lens van Kennis Bestuur, poog hierdie verhandeling om die verskeie uitdagings wat die Intelligensie Analise praktyk in die Kennis Era in die gesig staar, te identifiseer. Eerstens word bestaande teorieë en konsepte in Intelligensie Analise met dié in Kennis Bestuur vergelyk en die moontlikheid van ‘n nuwe woordeskat vir intelligensie word bespreek. Die tweede uitdaging vir intelligensie analiste is om by die nuwe wêreld en versnellende verandering aan te pas. Hulle word nou gekonfronteer met ‘n bedreigingsprent wat veelvlakkig, kompleks en multi-dissiplinêr is. Die derde uitdaging is om die bestaande analitiese metodologiëe, hulpmiddels en tegnieke te herwaardeer in die lig van hierdie nuwe wêreld. Die vierde uitdaging is om na ander dissiplines, insluitend dié van Kennis Bestuur, uit te reik sodat Intelligensie Analise verbeter kan word deur die toepassing van hierdie dissiplines se analitiese metodes (beide intuitief en gestruktureerd), hul kognitiewe en samewerkings modelle, sowel as organisasie struktuur konsepte. Laastens word geargumenteer dat Intelligensie Analiste dalk gereed is om hulself te vernuwe, maar dat hul intelligensie organisasies nie ‘n nuwe intelligensie paradigma kan ondersteun terwyl hulle voortgaan om bedreigingspersepsies, strukture en bestuurbeginsels toe te pas wat eerder by die Koue Oorlog tuis hoort nie. English Summary The intelligence community throughout the world is still reeling after several intelligence failures. Proposals to improve Intelligence Analysis have had little impact as analysts, their managers and their organisations continue to cling to outdated threat perceptions, methodologies and organisational structures and cultures. This thesis looks through the lens of Knowledge Management at the various challenges that the Intelligence Analysis practice is faced with in the Knowledge Age. Firstly, theories and concepts from Intelligence Analysis are challenged when compared with those in Knowledge Management and the possibility of applying new vocabularies in intelligence is discussed. The second challenge intelligence analysts face is to understand and adapt to the changed world with its connected, non-linear and rapidly enfolding events and patterns which broadens their scope to a multi-faceted, complex and multi-disciplinary threat picture. The third challenge is to re-look the existing analytical methodologies, tools and techniques, realising that these are most probably inadequate in a complex environment. The fourth challenge Intelligence Analysis faces is to reach out to other disciplines and assess how new analytical techniques, both intuitive and structured, as well as cognitive models, collaborative and organisational structure concepts from within the Knowledge Management discipline can improve Intelligence Analysis’ grasp of the Knowledge Age. In conclusion, it is argued that intelligence analysts might be ready to reinvent themselves to address Knowledge Age issues, but that intelligence organisations are not able to support a new intelligence paradigm while still clinging to threat perceptions and structures befitting the Cold War. Dedication I would like to dedicate this thesis to my husband, Awie, for his unwavering support and patience when I struggled to find balance between my studies and the demands of being a mom and entrepreneur. To my sons, Armand and Cornel, this thesis bears testimony that studies can be fun and rewarding when you love what you’re doing. I hope you fulfil all your dreams! Prof Johan Kinghorn, my study leader, allowed me enough leeway to exploit a new topic - the nexus between Knowledge Management and Intelligence Analysis. I am grateful for his enthusiasm and guidance. My friends and colleagues, both from South Africa and those overseas, have added value and insight to my arguments - giving this thesis a much broader application value than what I could have achieved on my own. Above all, the faithfulness of my Lord, Jesus Christ, has proved yet again infallible – I am truly blessed! Table of Contents 1. Introduction ……………………. 1 1.1. Focus of the thesis ……………………. 2 1.2. Literature study ……………………. 3 2. New vocabulary and concepts ……………………. 5 2.1. Intelligence ……………………. 5 2.1.1. Intelligence as organisation ……………………. 5 2.1.2. Intelligence as an activity or process ……………………. 8 2.1.3. Intelligence as a product ……………………. 14 2.2. Intelligence in the recent South African context ……………………. 16 2.3. Knowledge and the Knowledge Age ……………………. 18 2.4. The Knowledge worker ……………………. 20 2.5. The generations of Knowledge Management …………………… 22 2.5.1. The first generation of Knowledge Management …………………. 19 2.5.2. The second generation of Knowledge Management ……………. 20 2.5.3. The third generation of Knowledge Management……………………. 24 2.6. Intelligence Analysis through the lens of the third KM generation………….. 29 3. A Changed world ……………………. 33 3.1. Speed and connectivity ……………………. 34 3.2. The impact of the information revolution on Intelligence Analysis…………… 35 3.3. The widened scope ……………………. 38 3.4. Complexity principles applied to intelligence ……………………. 40 3.4.1. Unpredictability and uncertainty ……………………. 42 3.4.2. Connectivity, interdependence and co-evolution……………………. 45 3.5. Conclusion ……………………. 46 4. Analysing intelligence ……………………. 43 4.1. Thinking pitfalls ……………………. 49 4.1.1. Cultural biases ……………………. 50 4.1.2. Organisational biases ……………………. 50 4.1.3. Cognitive biases ……………………. 50 4.2. Analytical and thinking approaches, methods and techniques …………….. 53 4.2.1. The unaided analytical judgement/intuitive approach …………….. 55 4.2.1.1. Inductive reasoning ……………………. 55 4.2.1.2. Deductive reasoning ……………………. 56 4.2.1.3. Abductive reasoning ……………………. 56 4.2.1.4. Scientific method ……………………. 57 4.2.2. Alternative/structured analysis approach ……………………. 57 4.2.2.1. Decomposition and visualisation ……………………. 61 4.2.2.2. Idea generation techniques ……………………. 63 4.2.2.3. Scenarios, indicators and signposts ……………………. 65 4.2.2.4. Hypothesis generation and testing ……………………. 67 4.2.2.5. Cause and effect analysis ……………………. 70 4.2.2.6. Reframing techniques ……………………. 71 4.2.2.7. Challenge analysis techniques ……………………. 72 4.2.2.8. Decision support analysis ……………………. 75 4.3. Conclusion ……………………. 78 5. The New Intelligence Analysis …………………… 80 5.1. New Cognitive models …………………… 81 5.1.1. The prismatic reasoning/thinking paradigm ……………………. 81 5.1.2. New Intelligence Analysis cognitive models ……………………. 83 5.1.2.1. Waltz’s integrated reasoning process ……………………. 84 5.1.2.2. A Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) model of Intelligence Analysis ……………………. 87 5.1.2.3. Analytical rigour matrix ……………………. 90 5.2. Applying Sensemaking theories …………………… 92 5.3. New organisational structures? …………………… 96 5.4. Collaboration and information sharing …………………… 99 5.4.1. Collaboration across organisations and disciplines …….. …………… 100 5.4.2. Collaboration with the private sector ……………………. 102 5.4.3. Collaboration across national borders ……………………. 102 5.5. Outsourcing …………………… 104 5.6. Analytical technological tools …………………… 105 6. Accepting the challenges …………………… 107 6.1. Understanding post-modern intelligence ……………………. 107 6.2. Promoting the value of the intelligence analyst as a knowledge worker …….. 109 6.3. Learning from Knowledge Management theories and practices ……………. 111 6.4. Adopting a mindset of resilience, mindfulness and double-loop learning……. 113 6.5. Conclusion ……………………. 115 Bibliography …………………….. 116 List of Figures Page Figure 1: Intelligence Cycle 8 Figure 2: Treverton's "Real" Intelligence Cycle 10 Figure 3: Johnston’s Systems Model of the Intelligence Cycle 11 Figure 4: Clarke's Target-Centric Intelligence Process 13 Figure 5: Nonaka and Takeuchi's SECI model 23 Figure 6: Snowden's Cynefin model 27 Figure 7: The continuum of Intelligence Analysis complexity 31 Figure 8: A convergence of focus for the US intelligence community 39 Figure 9: Continuum of Estimates of Likelihood 44 Figure 10: Summary of traditional vs. transnational targets 47 Figure 11: Difference between intuitive and structured analysis 60 Figure 12: Telephone Link Analysis Chart 62 Figure 13: Mind map used in crime intelligence 63 Figure 14: A screenshot from the US intelligence community's Intellipedia wiki 64 Figure 15: Alternative Futures Technique 66 Figure 16: Multiple Scenario Generation Technique 67 Figure 17: Screen shot from ACH software on the Washington DC sniper 69 Figure 18: Structured self critique 72