AN OCAA AIR QUALITY REPORT | www.cleanairalliance.org Phasing Out Coal: 2006 Progress Report Ontario Clean Air Alliance NOVEMBER 9, 2006 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Ontario’s progress to-date in achieving a complete coal phase-out by 2009 .. 3 Calculating Ontario’s coal-free electricity resources in 2009 ...................... 3 Ontario’s Coal-free Electricity Resources from 2010 to 2012 .................... 4 Ontario’s Summer Peak Required Electricity Resources: 2009 to 2012 ...... 5 Coal Phase-Out Gap: 2009 – 2012 ............................................................ 5 Keeping the Coal Phase-Out by 2009 Promise .............................................. 6 Thunder Bay Conversion ........................................................................... 6 Nanticoke Conversion ................................................................................ 6 Alternative Options .................................................................................... 7 Looking ahead .............................................................................................. 7 Endnotes ....................................................................................................... 8 Appendix A: OCAA Members ...................................................................... 9 The Ontario Clean Air Alliance is a coalition of health, environmental, and consumer organizations, faith communities, municipalities, utilities, unions, corporations and individuals working for cleaner air through a coal phase-out and the shift to a renewable electricity future. Our partner organiza- tions represent more than six million Ontarians. Ontario Clean Air Alliance E-mail: [email protected] Cover photos of 625 Church Street, Suite 402 Web Site: www.cleanairalliance.org Lakeview Generating Station: Toronto M4Y 2G1 Top: Quentin Chiotti Tel: (416) 926-1907 ext. 245 Bottom: Karen Smith Fax: (416) 926-1601 Printed on 100% post-consumer recycled paper Thanks to the Laidlaw Foundation for their financial support. Introduction 6. On April 10, 2006, the Association of Major On June 13, 2006 Premier Dalton McGuinty Power Consumers in Ontario, which repre- broke his promise to phase-out Ontario’s four sents some of the province’s largest air pollut- remaining coal-fired power plants by 2009 and, ers (e.g., Inco, Imperial Oil), called on Premier instead, directed the Ontario Power Authority McGuinty to break his coal phase-out promise. (OPA) to develop a plan “for coal-fired electricity generation in Ontario to be replaced by cleaner 7. On June 9, 2006, the Independent Electric- sources in the earliest practical time frame that en- ity System Operator (IESO) issued its Ontario sures adequate generating capacity and electricity Reliability Outlook report. According to the system reliability in Ontario.”1 IESO’s report, it had recently determined that Ontario needed an extra 2,500 to 3,000 mega- This report will: watts (MW) of electricity resources to keep the lights on during peak summer demand days: 1. Review the key milestones in Ontario’s move towards a complete coal phase-out; “The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has revised its demand and supply as- 2. Review Ontario’s progress to-date in achieving sumptions for the Ontario resource adequacy a coal phase-out by 2009; and assessment as a result of the recent summer 3. Outline the additional actions that Premier experience, particularly in 2005, when hot McGuinty can take to keep his promise to weather conditions caused record electricity phase-out all of Ontario’s coal-fired power demands through increased air conditioner use, plants by 2009. and drought-like conditions limited hydroelec- tric energy to meet those demands. Ontario Coal Phase-Out Milestones The change in planning assumptions highlights the need for an additional 2,500 to 3,000 1. In 2001, Ontario’s then Minister of the En- megawatts (MW) of supply and demand-side vironment, Elizabeth Witmer, issued a legally initiatives over those previously identified.”3 binding regulation requiring the phase-out of According to the IESO, the need for an addi- coal burning at the Lakeview Generating Sta- tional 2,500 to 3,000 MW at the time of the tion, in Mississagua, by April 30, 2005. system’s summer peak would require a signifi- 2. On September 9, 2002 the Government of cant delay in Ontario’s coal phase-out sched- Ontario, under the leadership of former Pre- ule: mier Ernie Eves, promised to phase-out all of “Significant delays in the current coal replace- Ontario’s coal-fired power plants by 2015. ment schedule will be needed given the time 3. In October 2003, Dalton McGuinty was elect- required to implement the additional initiatives ed Premier of Ontario and promised to phase- to maintain future reliability.”4 out all of Ontario’s coal-fired power plants by 8. On June 13, 2006, Premier Dalton McGuinty 2007. broke his promise to phase-out Ontario’s four 4. In April 2005, coal burning was phased-out at remaining coal-fired power plants by 2009 and Lakeview pursuant to the Witmer Regulation. directed the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) 5. On June 15, 2005, the Government of Ontario to develop a plan “for coal-fired electricity extended the coal phase-out date for the Nan- generation in Ontario to be replaced by cleaner ticoke Generating Station to 2009 and directed sources in the earliest practical time frame that Ontario Power Generation to convert the ensures adequate generating capacity and elec- Thunder Bay Generating Station’s boilers from tricity system reliability in Ontario.”5 coal to natural gas by 2007.2 Ontario Clean Air Alliance — 2006 Coal Phase Out Progress Report - 1 9. On June 13, 2006, the Government of Ontario also directed Ontario Power Generation (OPG) to cancel its plans to convert the Thunder Bay Generating Station’s boilers from coal to natu- ral gas. This directive was made despite the fact that the IESO had concluded that the con- version of the Thunder Bay Generating Station to natural gas would permit the phase-out of coal-burning at the Atikokan and Thunder Bay Generating Stations in 2007 without jeopardiz- ing electricity system reliability in Ontario.6 2 - Ontario Clean Air Alliance — 2006 Coal Phase Out Progress Report • Subtract 253 MW of wind generation to reflect Ontario’s progress the recent estimate that the capacity utilization rate of our wind resources is 17% at the time to-date in achieving a of the summer peak day demand;9 and • Subtract 500 MW to reflect the IESO’s plan- complete coal phase-out ning assumption that approximately 500 MW of generation will be out of service during the by 2009 summer peak.10 Table 2 shows Ontario’s existing coal-free genera- To phase-out coal-fired electricity generation and tion resources that are currently available at the keep the lights on, Ontario’s available coal-free time of Ontario’s summer peak demand. electricity resources (in megawatts -- MW) must equal or exceed Ontario’s electricity resources Table 2: Available Coal-Free Generation Resources on (MW) that are needed to meet Ontario’s summer Summer Peak Demand Day peak day demand. Fuel Type Total Available Therefore to measure Ontario’s progress at phas- Resources ing-out coal by 2009 we must compare Ontario’s available coal-free electricity resources to the re- Nuclear 11,414 MW quired electricity resources on the projected peak Oil/Gas 5,103 demand day in the summer of 2009. Hydroelectric 6,000 Wind 52 Calculating Ontario’s coal-free electricity Miscellaneous 70 resources in 2009 Planned Outage -500 Table 1 below shows Ontario’s existing installed Total 22,139 generation resources. 7 However, as a result of actions taken by the Gov- Table 1: Existing Installed Generation Resources ernment of Ontario, there will be a significant Fuel Type Total Capacity (MW) increase in Ontario’s coal-free electricity resources Nuclear 11,414 between today and the summer of 2009 (in-service dates are based on IESO information): Coal 6,434 • The Bruce A Unit 1 and 2 nuclear reactors are Oil/Gas 5,103 expected to return to service in 2009 and 2010 Hydroelectric 7,768 respectively. However, Bruce Power also has Wind 305 plans for refurbishing Units 3 and 4 as neces- Miscellaneous 70 sary to maintain their reliability. Total 31,094 • The IESO is forecasting that Ontario’s total nu- clear generation available during the summer To calculate Ontario’s existing coal-free genera- peak will increase by 786 MW to about 12,200 tion resources, at the time of the summer peak day MW from 2009 to 2012;11 demand, the following subtractions must be made • The Goreway combined-cycle natural gas pow- from Table 1: er plant, in Brampton, will provide 860 MW by the summer of 2008; • Subtract 6,434 MW of coal-fired generation; • The Greenfield combined-cycle natural gas • Subtract 1,768 MW of hydroelectric genera- power plant, near Sarnia, will provide 1,005 tion to reflect the IESO’s assumption that only MW in 2008; 6,000 MW of hydroelectric generation will be • The St. Clair combined-cycle natural gas power available at the time of the summer peak day plant, near Sarnia, will provide 570 MW in demand;8 2008; Ontario Clean Air Alliance — 2006 Coal Phase Out Progress Report - 3 • The Portlands combined-cycle natural gas Ontario’s Coal-free Electricity Resources from power plant, Toronto, will provide 550 MW in 2010 to 2012 the summer of 2009;12 • The Thorold cogeneration natural gas power In addition, the