Sindh Drought Needs Assessment Preliminary Findings: Agriculture, Livelihood, Nutrition, Health, Water and Sanitation, Assistance Drought Vulnerability Index in Sindh • Southern Sindh prone to moderate droughts. • Before this drought, severe drought years were 1969, 1974, 1987 and 2002. Exposure to Drought • Drought Started in 2013 / Ended with the heavy monsoon 2015, but rainfall deficiency resumed in October. • Most severe in the bare and desert areas of Tharparkar and Jamshoro. • Droughts have more disastrous consequences when pressure on water supply is high and institutional management capacity is low. • Drought was most severe in Western and South Eastern Regions, two already very arid areas. • Drought was mediated by access to tube well irrigation in the West. • Drought was mostly moderate in the East • Most of the irrigated zone was spared by the meteorological drought, but the hydrological drought is largely determined upstream. 20% of households surveyed in the irrigated zone (mostly tail ends) experienced extreme water scarcity. Methodology MAP with districts and sampled • Sample Selection ucs • 9 districts (Khairpur, Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Umerkot, Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Jamshoro and Dadu) • 33 tehsils • 100 union councils • 272 villages • 3565 households • 3 stage sample • UCs: Negative NDVI and population considerations. • Villages in dry areas. • Households: 10 Male headed 3 female headed. • Questionnaire focusing on the impact of drought on livelihoods. • Understand how droughts affect livelihoods, food security, and nutrition. • How can targeted responses be put in place in the short, medium and long term to mitigate their impact? Distribution of Surveyed Households by Drought Status & District Umerkot 100.0% Thatta 37.4% 62.6% Tharparkar 100.0% Sanghar 29.9% 70.1% Mirpur Khas 41.8% 41.8% 16.5% Khairpur 13.7% 86.3% Jamshoro 10.1% 89.9% Dadu 10.3% 41.4% 48.3% Badin 100.0% Overall 19.9% 9.7% 27.1% 43.3% No Drought Low Moderate High Distribution of Surveyed Households by Agriculture Water Scarcity Status & District Umerkot 83.8% 13.1% 3.1% Thatta 60.7% 16.0% 23.3% Tharparkar 100.0% Sanghar 10.2% 89.8% Mirpur Khas 9.7% 34.4% 55.9% Khairpur 10.1% 13.1% 76.8% Jamshoro 53.9% 29.7% 16.4% Dadu 48.3% 27.6% 24.1% Badin 12.3% 48.6% 39.1% Overall 42.2% 21.4% 36.4% Extreme Water Scarcity Moderate Water Scarcity Low Water Scarcity Impact Analysis Methodology: Disaggregation by Agro-climatic Zone And by Households Assets / Income Sources Impact of Drought on Water Scarcity Impact of Water Scarcity on Agriculture Food Security and Nutrition Vulnerability to Water Scarcity Agro-climatic Zones in Sindh • Defined using the three dominant features of the land-cover. • West zone: Bare areas and Sparse Vegetation with Some irrigated croplands. • Irrigated zone: Irrigated Croplands • East zone: Bare areas with Shrubs and some irrigation. • South East zone: Bare areas with Shrubs, no irrigation West of the Irrigated Zone West Zone 22.1% • Districts: 15.4% 62.5% -East Jamshoro -East Dadu Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS -North Thatta Excluding flooded communities Hazards: - Severe Drought (extreme water Scarcity 62%) -Floods (excluded from analysis) West Changes in Wheat Production (%) by Water Scarcity Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total West Zone: Wheat 12.2 10 3.6 1.7 0.5 0 - Only 40% of households cultivate -10 -18.2 land -20 -25.5 -26.1 -26.6 -28.3 -30 -28.8 -31.5 -Harvests reduced by 28% overall. -32.5 Land Cultivated Yield Harvest The most vulnerable areas in this Excluding flooded communities region seem to be those which had moderate water scarcity (most West Changes in Guar Production (%) reliant on canal irrigation rather than Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total 0 tubewell irrigation in severely scarce -1 -0 -1 areas). -20 - Strong Correlation between Change -35 -35 -40 in harvest and water scarcity for -45 -44 -55 cotton. -56 -60 Land Cultivated Yield Harvest - Farmers tried to offset yields losses Excluding flooded comunities with increased land cultivation area. West Zone: Causes of Harvest Reduction West Causes of Harvest Reduction 83.6 Water Scarcity is the 80 main cause of harvest reduction everywhere in 60 52.8 the region. 39.1 Water Scarcity highest in 40 moderate water scarcity 20 10.2 10.2 12.2 areas 4.7 5.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 2.0 Other causes increase as 0 Low WS water scarcity decreases. Extreme WS Moderate WS Floods affected some Water Scarcity Lack of Inputs Unproductive Land Other areas of Jamshoro. Excluding flooded communities West Zone: Livestock • 82% of households own West livestock (on average 3.5 Percentage Change in Number of Animals buffalos, 11 sheep or goats, Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS 3.4 poultry. 0.6 equine 2 0 years ago). Lost up to 65% of their animals. -14.2 -20 • Buffalos and Goats the most vulnerable to water -28.7 -27.6 -27.4 -32.9 scarcity. Moderately water -34.7 -40 scarce areas (relying on -42.3 -44.3 -48.1 -48.1 canal irrigation) most -49.8 affected. -60 • Highest number of buffalos -65.0 of all regions. Buffalos Sheeps and Goats Poultry Equines Excluding flooded communities Irrigated Zone Water Availability in Irrigated Zone • Districts: -Badin 20.4% -Mirpukhas -Sanghar 55.1% 24.5% -Parts of Jamshroro, Thatta & Umerkot Hazards: 25% or less than usual 25% to 75% the normal level Over 75% Excluding flooded communities - Recurrent “Hydrological” droughts (20% extreme water scarcity) - Frequent Floods - Floods and inundations this year (excluded in drought impact analysis) Irrigated Zone Changes in Wheat Production (%) by Water Availability Irrigated Zone: Wheat & Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total 10 3.5 2.0 Cotton 0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.6 -3.0 -5.0 -6.4 51% of households cultivate -10 -10.5 land -16.0 -20 -21.5 -25.8 Significant linear relationship -30 for wheat and cotton Land Cultivated Yield Harvest production and water Excluding flooded communities availability. Irrigated Zone Changes in Cotton Production (%) by Water Scarcity Up to 21% and 35% harvest Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total 0 reduction in extremely water -1.0 -2.3 -2.7 -3.6 -3.2 scarce areas for wheat and -4.5 cotton respectively. -10 -9.2 -8.9 -18.1 -20 -20.7 Tail ends and distribution of -30 -28.5 -35.3 surface water are likely to be -40 the most important issue in Land Cultivated Yield Harvest this region Excluding flooded communities Irrigated Zone : Causes of Harvest Reduction Water is the main Irrigated Zone Causes of Harvest Reduction problem in areas with 39.8 40 very low water 34.6 availability, but as water availability increases, 30 other causes increase. 23.4 22.5 18.4 17.9 20 12.5 10.2 10.2 Other Reasons: 7.9 10 5.0 Financial Constraints, lack 1.2 of inputs. 0 Low WS Extreme WS Moderate WS Water Scarcity Lack of inputs Unproductive Land Other Excluding flooded communities Irrigated Zone: Livestock Irrigated Zone Percentage Change in Number of Animals 78% of households Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total surveyed owned 0 livestock. (on -2.7 -4.6 average, 2 buffalos. -10 -8.7 7 sheep or goats, 1 -13.7 -15.3 -20 -18.3 poultry and 0,4 -19.8 -21.6 -22.6 -23.3 equines two years -25.1 ago) -30 -30.0 -37.4 Linear relationship -40 between water -45.2 scarcity and -50 -48.8 -52.9 livestock loss. Up to 63% in extremely Buffalos Sheeps or Goats water scarce areas. Poultry Equines Excluding Flooded Communities East Zone East of the irrigated Zone • Districts: Part of Sanghar, 25.3% Khairpur & 60.2% Tharparkar districts 14.6% bordering with irrigated areas Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS • Hazards: -Mild to Moderate Drought - Extreme Water Scarcity 60% -Heavy rains East Zone: Guar & Wheat 50% of households East cultivate crops Changes in Guar Production % 0 Guar only produced in extremely water scarce -10 -9.2 areas. 53% reduction in harvest. -20 -30 Changes in wheat -35.7 production were actually -40 positive on average (1.39%) -50 compared to a normal year. -53.2 Drought was mild, and wheat is only cultivated in Extreme WS irrigated areas. Land Cultivated Yield Harvest Excluding flooded communities East Zone: Causes of Harvest Reduction East Causes of Harvest Reduction Over half of Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total households blame the 60 lack of water for their 53.4 harvest reduction in water scarce areas. 40 36.7 25.2 21.4 Other Reasons: 19.2 17.4 20 16.2 12.5 Financial Constraints + 10.3 11.0 7.7 8.1 Heavy Rains. 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0 Water Scarcity Lack of inputs Unproductive land Other Excluding flooded communities East Zone: Livestock East Livestock breeders owned Percentage Change in Number of Animals 12.5 sheep or goats, 2.9 Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total 1.7 0.0 buffalos, 0.8 chicken and 0 0.7 equine 2 years ago -10 Buffalos the most -11.4 -10.6 vulnerable to water -16.5 -20 scarcity -23.5 -22.5 -25.1 -30 -28.5 Up to 48% reduction in -30.3 -33.2 livestock in extremely -34.9 -40 water scarce areas. -41.6 -50 -48.1-48.7 -50.0 (too few observations for Buffalos Sheeps or Goats Poultry Equines equines). Excluding flooded communities East Zone: Causes of East Livestock Change Causes of Change in Number of Animals Extreme WS Moderate WS Low WS Total 62.5 60 Disease is the main 53.7 cause of change, 44.0 followed by water 36.8 scarcity.